The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday features a nine-game main slate that begins at 7:05 p.m. ET.
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Pitchers
Studs
On FanDuel, there are three pitchers who cost $10,000 or more:
- Max Scherzer (R) $11,800, WSH vs. CIN
- Zack Greinke (R) $11,000, ARI vs. SF
- Clayton Kershaw (L) $10,700, LAD vs. MIL
Max Scherzer has actually been human over the past month (by his standards), averaging a +6.52 FanDuel Plus/Minus, although he was able to bounce back and strike out 11 Marlins recently while sporting a +29.72 Plus/Minus. Among the top-priced pitchers on Thursday, he leads the pack in K Prediction (7.7), opponent implied run total (2.8), and moneyline odds (-278).
He has a mediocre matchup against the Reds, as their projected lineup has a measly 20.2% strikeout rate over the past 12 months. They rank 13th in Split-Adjusted Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) this season (FanGraphs). That said, pitchers with comparable K Predictions and Vegas data have historically been worthwhile, averaging a +6.86 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 66.7% Consistency Rating (per our Trends tool). However, at the time of writing, there is rain in the forecast for the Reds-Nationals game, so be sure to monitor the game’s status leading up to lineup lock.
Zack Greinke has been excellent over his past five starts, allowing two or fewer earned runs in each outing and averaging a +8.56 Plus/Minus with an 82% Consistency Rating over the past month. Additionally, he possesses a hard-hit rate that is five percentage points below his 12-month average. Even so, Greinke’s upside could be limited against a projected Giants lineup that has a lowly 22.8% strikeout rate against righties over the past year.
However, the Giants may not be much of a threat to score: They own a weak splits-adjusted .294 weighted on-base average (wOBA) over the past 12 months. Further, they’ve been mediocre against righties all season, ranking 19th in wRC+. One drawback for Greinke is the scorching Arizona heat, expected to be 103 degrees at game time, giving him a Weather Rating of just 5. Historically, pitchers with comparable Weather Ratings and moneyline odds (-165) have averaged a -1.33 Plus/Minus with a 49% Consistency Rating.
Even though the Brewers rank 27th in wRC+ against left-handed pitchers this season, Clayton Kershaw doesn’t seem like an appetizing option: He owns a pathetic 5.3 K Prediction against a projected Brewers lineup that has struck out at a low 21% strikeout rate against lefties over the past year. One thing Kershaw does have going for him is an opponent implied total of 2.9 runs as well as -197 moneyline odds. Pitchers with comparable Vegas data, K Predictions and salaries have been viable but not outstanding, averaging a +2.36 Plus/Minus with a 52.4% Consistency Rating.
Values
Nick Pivetta has a 65% Bargain Rating on FanDuel, the fourth-highest mark on the main slate. He has done an excellent job at limiting hard contact over his past two starts, sporting an exit velocity of 88 mph and hard-hit rate of 26%. Both marks are below his 12-month averages. He rivals some of the top-priced options with his 7.5 K Prediction, which is the slate’s second-highest mark. Pivetta may be an alternative to the top-priced pitchers if you’re looking to load up on bats. He has a solid matchup against the Marlins, who rank 24th in split-adjusted wRC+ this season and whose projected lineup has a 26.6% strikeout rate against righties over the past year. The Phillies are sizable -175 moneyline favorites, and the Marlins are implied for a paltry 3.7 runs.
Michael Foltynewicz has data almost identical to Pivetta’s, and he costs just $200 more on FanDuel (97% Bargain Rating): Folty possesses a 7.4 K Prediction, the opposing Mets are implied for 3.7 runs and the Braves are sitting with -173 moneyline odds. He’s in an exploitable spot: They Mets rank 21st in splits-adjusted wRC+ this season and have a projected lineup with a 27.2% strikeout rate against righties over the past 12 months.
Jhoulys Chacin is strictly a tournament play. He’s been great over the past month, averaging a +6.33 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 67% Consistency Rating, but his matchup doesn’t come without risk: The projected Dodgers lineup doesn’t strike out often against righties and has a .346 wOBA against them over the past year. To make matters worse, Los Angeles is third in splits-adjusted wRC+ this season. But Chacin’s 5.4 K Prediction is comparable to Kershaw’s, and the Dodgers’ 4.2-run implied total is the fifth-lowest mark on the night. Chacin has solid Statcast data over the past 15 days, holding teams to a recent batted-ball distance of just 179 feet. Historically, pitchers with comparable batted-ball data have averaged a +2.00 FanDuel Plus/Minus.
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Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top five-man DraftKings stack in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Baltimore Orioles:
- 1. Tim Beckham (R)
- 2. Jonathan Villar (S)
- 3. Adam Jones (R)
- 4. Mark Trumbo (R)
- 5. Chris Davis (L)
Total Salary: $19,300
The Orioles’ 4.9-run implied total is tied for the third-highest mark on the main slate, and their 77 Team Value Rating on DraftKings is second, trailing only that of the Rangers (78).
The Orioles have the benefit of the 90-degree temperature in Texas, giving the hitters a Weather Rating of 63. Globe Life Park in Arlington is also particularly favorable to left-handed hitters (Park Factor of 65), which plays to Davis’ strengths. Over his past nine games, he’s had an absurd 267-foot batted-ball distance, 98-mph exit velocity and 47% hard-hit rate. His distance differential of +39 feet is the slate’s fifth-largest mark.
One of the top FanDuel stacks in the CSURAM88 Player Model belongs to the Texas Rangers:
- 1. Shin-Soo Choo (L)
- 2. Rougned Odor (L)
- 3. Elvis Andrus (R)
- 5. Joey Gallo (L)
Total Salary: $12,800
The Rangers own top honors on both DraftKings and FanDuel (96) in Team Value Rating. Given that they own the slate’s highest implied run total (5.7), they will be a popular team to stack.
Choo possesses a 99% Bargain Rating on FanDuel along with the second-highest ceiling projection among outfielders and is in a good spot to take on a righty, given his splits-adjusted .371 wOBA and .225 isolated power (ISO) over the past year. He’s also generated tons of hard contact over his past nine games, sporting an exit velocity of 93 mph and hard-hit rate of 39%. Odor has been riding a hot streak over his past 10 games, averaging a +7.55 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 50% Consistency Rating. He’s also in great recent form: He has a distance differential of +11 feet to go along with his massive 97-mph exit velocity and 61% hard-hit rate.
The Rangers and Orioles have the two highest Team Value Ratings on both sites. Their game in Arlington looks highly stackable.
Other Batters
Based on how you construct your roster and the other options available, you may be able to afford Mookie Betts. Boston’s 5.2-run implied total is the second-highest mark on the slate, and Betts has obliterated left-handed pitchers over the past 12 months, evidenced by his .467 wOBA and .336 ISO.
Another appealing top-priced option could be Freddie Freeman against Mets left-hander Jason Vargas, who has an abysmal 1.67 WHIP and 2.27 HR/9 over the past year. He got smoked in his last start, allowing a 239-foot batted-ball distance and 93-mph exit velocity to the opposing Pirates. The matchup against a lefty puts Freeman on the positive side of his wOBA and ISO splits: He owns an elite .401 wOBA and .246 ISO against lefties over the past 12 months. It’s a favorable spot for Freeman: The Braves’ 4.9-run implied total is one of the highest marks on the slate.
One contrarian option is Joc Pederson, who is projected to occupy the leadoff spot for the Dodgers. He’s averaging an awful -0.25 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 40% Consistency Rating over his past 10 starts, but his +47 Recent Batted Ball Luck is one of the highest marks on the slate. He owns a splits-adjusted .362 wOBA and .253 ISO over the past year and has positive differentials in exit velocity and hard-hit rate over his past 10 games. Since the Dodgers are implied for just 4.2 runs, he’s unlikely to have high ownership.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Rougned Odor and Elvis Andrus
Photo credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
