The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features a large 14-game main slate that starts at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
On DraftKings, there are four pitchers who cost $10,000 or more.
- Trevor Bauer (R) $13,300, CLE @ MIN
- Tyler Skaggs (L) $11,300, LAA @ TB
- Charlie Morton (R) $11,100, HOU @ SEA
- Masahiro Tanaka (R) $10,300, NYY vs. BAL
Bauer is $2,000 more expensive than any other pitcher on DraftKings, but he has a middling matchup against a projected Twins lineup that possesses a 23.7% strikeout rate and .325 wOBA over the past 12 months against right-handed pitching. Vegas leans towards the Indians even on the road, but they’re only -151 moneyline favorites facing an opponent with a 3.8-run implied total, which is hardly a dominating figure for a pitcher with such an exorbitant price tag. That said, Bauer does have some of the best recent Statcast data in the slate, including a batted-ball distance allowed of 175 feet, exit velocity of 89 mph and fly-ball rate of 19%. He’s a reasonable play in guaranteed prize pools since most players will likely gravitate toward some of the chalkier mid-range pitchers on the main slate, and his salary is much more reasonable on FanDuel with a 92% Bargain Rating.
There are a lot of similarities between Bauer and Skaggs in their peripheral stats, although Skaggs has the edge in venue thanks to his 84 Park Factor at Tropicana Field, where he has the slate’s second-highest mark. His matchup and Vegas data hardly stand out, but the largest problem with the Angels pitcher is probably his lack of upside with a meager 6.7 K Prediction, and his 8.94 SO/9 is the lowest mark for all the high-priced pitchers. The Rays are actually eighth this year in weighted runs created plus (wRC+) against left-handed pitching.
Yet another high-priced pitcher on the road, Morton has arguably the worst matchup against a projected Mariners lineup with a 21.5% strikeout rate and .323 wOBA against righties over the past year. He will likely be the lowest-owned option in this price range, and he has just the 11th-highest ceiling projection in our Models. Seattle also is top-10 in wRC+, so Morton is a tough sell in cash games unless his low 20% fly-ball and 26% hard-hit rates tickle your fancy. It might be best to pay down for more upside.
Tanaka will probably be the pitcher in this tier most players roster. The Orioles have a weak .298 wOBA against righties over the past year, and Tanaka leads the slate with eight DraftKings Pro Trends. The Yankees are -301 moneyline favorites, and Baltimore owns a slate-low 3.2-run implied total. Tanaka was absolutely dealing in his last start, yielding a slate-best 150-foot batted-ball distance and 0% fly-ball rate in a nine-inning complete game shutout. Immaculate Statcast data aside, pitchers with comparable Vegas data have been fantastic investments on DraftKings, averaging a +2.57 Plus/Minus with 70.8% Consistency (per our MLB Trends tool).
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Values
Priced at just $7,200 on DraftKings with a 74% Bargain Rating, Zack Godley is a fantastic value today, sporting a 7.7 K Prediction against a projected Rangers lineup that can’t hit right-handed pitching. Over the past year, they have a slate-worst 30.8% strikeout rate and bottom-two .285 wOBA against righties. The Diamondbacks are the third-largest favorite on the slate, and Texas is implied for a palatable 3.9 runs. Godley is wonderfully cheap, so without many enticing value options, feel free to embrace the chalk. Comparably priced pitchers with similar Vegas data have smashed with a +8.90 Plus/Minus and 80.0% Consistency Rating.
Fastballs
Jack Flaherty: He’s probably the highest-ceiling option next to Godley in the middle tier, with an impressive 8.9 K Prediction against a Rockies squad that owns a top-three 29.1% strikeout rate against righties. The issue with Flaherty is his recent form. Over his last two starts he’s allowed a batted-ball distance of 236 feet and 43% fly-ball rate, both of which are bottom-five marks on the slate. Further, his Recent Batted Ball Luck (RBBL) is bottom-three, so while Flaherty has massive upside he carries risk in cash games.
Jon Gray: The strikeout upside for both pitchers in this game sets up perfectly for GPPs, and Gray has been excellent over the past year, sporting an elite 0.79 HR/9 and 10.42 SO/9. He has a tough matchup against the Cardinals, whose lineup owns a middling 24.3% strikeout rate and .322 wOBA against righties over the past year. Overall, Gray’s upside is still substantial: He possesses a 7.6 K Prediction even as a +110 underdog. He surrendered only an 18% hard-hit rate in his last start, and in each of his last three games he’s totaled six strikeouts and one earned run.
Walker Buehler: The Dodgers are the fifth-largest favorite on the slate with -164 moneyline odds, but Buehler has been hammered over his past two starts with a 228-foot batted ball distance and 50% fly-ball rate. He makes for a decent fade, as pitchers with similar Vegas data and comparable Statcast numbers have averaged a high 20.0% ownership rate while only slightly outperforming salary-based expectations with a +0.90 Plus/Minus.
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Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top five-man DraftKings stack in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Yankees, who are implied for a slate-high 5.9 runs and own the highest Team Value Rating:
- 1. Brett Gardner (L)
- 2. Giancarlo Stanton (R)
- 3. Didi Gregorius (L)
- 4. Aaron Hicks (S)
- 5. Gleyber Torres (R)
Total Salary: $23,200
New York will square off against Orioles righty Yefry Ramirez, who owns a bottom-four 1.60 HR/9 over the past 12 months. He also got blown up in his last start, yielding a 285-foot batted ball distance, 96-mph exit velocity and 76% fly-ball rate against the Red Sox.
Projected to bat third, Gregorius is on the right side of his batting splits with a .346 wOBA and .237 ISO against righties over the past 12 months. He could be the player most likely to take Ramirez deep, as he also has a team-high 41% fly-ball rate over the past 15 days. Stanton is in excellent recent form, sporting a 226-foot average distance, 92-mph exit velocity, and 42% hard-hit rate.
The top four-man FanDuel stack in the Bales Model belongs to the Tigers, who are implied for a healthy 4.8 runs and hold the slate’s highest Team Value Rating:
- 1. Jacoby Jones (R)
- 2. Jeimer Candelario (S)
- 3. Nick Castellanos (R)
- 5. Victor Martinez (S)
Total Salary: $11,800
The Tigers stack may be a sharp way to save salary, especially against Reds righty Homer Bailey, who owns a slate-worst 1.61 WHIP mark over the past 12 months. He can be susceptible to the long ball, averaging a 1.46 HR/9 over that same time period.
At $3,400, Jones offers value in the leadoff spot, and Martinez has been unlucky lately with a 51 RBBL and is on the right side of his batting splits with distance and hard-hit differentials of +18 feet and +6 percentage points over the past 15 days.
Other Batters
Mookie Betts is $6,000 on DraftKings, yet he somehow has hit value with a +0.56 Plus/Minus and 46.0% Consistency Rating over the past month. Boston’s implied team total of 5.3 runs is the second-highest mark on the slate, so the Red Sox will likely be popular, but avoiding cleanup hitter Mitch Moreland could differentiate lineups. He’s been terrible lately, sporting a 176-foot batted ball distance, 86-mph exit velocity and 23% hard-hit rate. Consider slotting in Ian Kinsler (probable) instead in his Red Sox debut; he should have lower ownership in the No. 6 spot.
Ronald Acuna and Freddie Freeman have immense upside against Marlins righty Dan Straily, who has allowed a top-two 1.74 HR/9 mark over the past 12 months, including two deep balls in his last start. Several of the Braves are intriguing, given their implied total of 5.1 runs. Acuna stands out in the leadoff position with a .359 wOBA and 2.37 ISO against right-handed pitching over the past 12 months. Freeman has been crushing the ball lately with a batted-ball distance of 231 feet and 40% hard-hit rate.
The Dodgers could be a potential pivot to some of the more popular teams, as West Coast games tend to have reduced ownership. Chris Taylor, Manny Machado and Matt Kemp all sport batted-ball distances of 229 feet or higher over the past 15 days and are getting the ball in the air with a 41% or higher fly-ball rate. Brewers lefty Wade Miley owns a bottom-three 1.60 WHIP over the past 12 months, and No. 6 hitter Logan Forsythe could be overdue for some serious progression with a +70 RBBL.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Zack Godley
Photo credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
