The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features a nine-game slate at 7:10 p.m. ET.
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Pitchers
Studs
Three pitchers stand out above the rest on DraftKings:
- Gerrit Cole (R) $12,800, HOU @ SEA
- Kenta Maeda (R) $10,100, LAD vs. MIL
- James Paxton (L) $9,600, SEA vs. HOU
Cole and Paxton are squaring off against each other in Seattle, so both pitchers have reduced moneyline odds; Cole is a slight -110 favorite, and Paxton is a +102 underdog. Both pitchers still have solid marks in opponent implied team total. Cole’s mark of 3.5 runs is tied for second, and Paxton’s mark of 3.6 runs ranks fourth.
Cole has been dominant over his past three starts, racking up 28 strikeouts over 18 innings pitched and posting an average Plus/Minus of +7.35 on DraftKings. That said, the Statcast data from his past two starts is not nearly as impressive. He’s allowed a hard-hit rate of 42%, which represents an increase of 10 percentage points when compared to his 12-month average. The projected Mariners lineup has struck out on only 21.3% of at-bats vs. right-handers over the past year, so Seattle could put more balls in play than usual against Cole.
Paxton has somewhat quietly been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season. His ERA of 3.70 is nothing special, but his xFIP of 3.06 ranks seventh among qualified starters. He’s also posted a career-high K/9 of 11.69. He could be in line for a big second half.
Unfortunately, that may not start today vs. the Astros. Both of their star middle infielders are on the disabled list, but their projected lineup has still posted a .329 wOBA and 19.4% strikeout rate against left-handers over the past 12 months. Paxton was also scratched from his last start, so it’s possible that he’ll be limited today. Overall, both Paxton and Cole will likely have lower ownership than usual.
Given that Cole and Paxton are facing each other, Maeda will likely be the most popular option from the stud tier. He has a nice matchup vs. the Milwaukee Brewers, whose projected lineup has stuck out in 27.0% of at-bats against right-handers over the past 12 months. His 8.7 K Prediction is the second-highest mark on the slate. His Vegas data is also solid, as he leads all pitchers with an opponent implied team total of 3.4 runs. Pitchers with comparable K Predictions and opponent implied team totals have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.16 on DraftKings (per the Trends tool).
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Values
Its tough to look past Robbie Ray at just $8,000 on DraftKings. He’s the largest favorite of the day at -195, while his opponent implied total of 3.5 runs is tied for second. He has an elite matchup vs. the Texas Rangers, whose projected lineup has struck out in 33.4% of at-bats against left-handers over the past 12 months. Ray has been arguably the best strikeout pitcher in baseball over the same time frame, averaging a K/9 of 13.25, which gives him an unreal K Prediction of 10.7.
Ray also enters today’s contest in excellent recent form. He limited his past two opponents to an average distance of 199 feet, which represents a differential of -22 feet when compared to his 12-month average. Historically, pitchers with comparable K Predictions, moneyline odds and distance differentials have averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.93 on DraftKings. Even though he’s not priced as a stud, he looks like the top option on today’s slate.
After Ray, the value options are pretty thin. Carlos Martinez has a tough matchup vs. the Colorado Rockies, who have posted a .331 wOBA against right-handers over the past 12 months, but it could be an interesting spot to buy low on him. He’s been priced down to just $7,900 on DraftKings, which represents a decrease of $3,200 since the start of the season. He has an opponent implied total of 3.7 runs, and pitchers with comparable opponent totals and yearly salary changes have posted a Plus/Minus of +1.69 on DraftKings. This could also be a potential showcase game for Martinez, who is rumored to be on the trade market.
Fastballs
Aaron Nola: He’s been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season but is coming off a disastrous start in which he allowed an average distance of 251 feet, and he has a tough matchup today against the Boston Red Sox. That said, he’s projected for just 2-4% ownership on DraftKings, which could make him a worthy contrarian option for GPPs.
Freddy Peralta: He’s been an elite strikeout pitcher in his time at the big-league level, compiling a K/9 of 12.10. He’s an underdog vs. the Los Angeles Dodgers, but his K Prediction of 8.7 gives him upside.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top five-man DraftKings stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks.
- 1. David Peralta (L)
- 2. Ketel Marte (S)
- 3. Paul Goldschmidt (R)
- 4. A.J. Pollock (R)
- 7. Chris Owings (R)
Total Salary: $22,000
The Diamondbacks’ implied team total of 5.1 runs is tied for the top mark, and they’re back at home in the hitter-friendly confines of Chase Field. They have a nice matchup against Rangers left-hander Martin Perez, who has allowed a HR/9 of 1.56 and WHIP of 1.68 over the past 12 months. The Diamondbacks have been more effective against left-handers than right-handers this season, ranking in the top 10 in wOBA against southpaws.
Goldschimdt and Pollock in particular have been lefty killers over the past year, with Goldschmidt owning a .469 wOBA and .375 ISO and Pollack owning marks of .394 and .312. Marte and Owings are in the best recent form on the team, with each owning a distance differential of at least +17 feet over the past 15 days.
On FanDuel, the top four-man stack when building by projected points belongs to the Cleveland Indians.
- 1. Francisco Lindor (S)
- 2. Michael Brantley (L)
- 3. Jose Ramirez (S)
- 4. Edwin Encarnacion (R)
Total Salary: $16,400
The Indians’ implied total of 5.0 runs is only slightly lower than that of the Diamondbacks, but the Indians have been far better as an offense this season. They’re facing Twins right-hander Ervin Santana, and the Indians have posted a splits-adjusted wOBA of .329. They also rank third in runs per game.
The Indians enter today’s contest in good recent form, as only Ramirez has underperformed his 12-month Statcast data over the past 15 days. Encarnacion in particular has crushed the baseball over his past eight games, posting an average distance of 238 feet, exit velocity of 94 miles per hour and hard-hit rate of 64%.
Other Batters
Joe Mauer is projected to occupy the key leadoff spot in the lineup for the Twins, whose implied team total of 4.6 runs ranks fifth. He’s posted solid Statcast numbers over his past 11 games, exceeding his 12-month averages in distance, exit velocity and hard-hit rate, and he owns a Bargain Rating of 98% on FanDuel.
If you’re looking to buy low on someone who has been unlucky recently, consider Hunter Renfroe. He’s posted strong Statcast marks over the past 15 days, resulting in a Recent Batted Ball Luck of +73, and he’ll be on the positive side of his batting splits against Giants left-hander Derek Holland. He’s crushed lefties to the tune of a .379 wOBA and .301 ISO over the past 12 months.
Mookie Betts leads all batters with nine Pro Trends on DraftKings and is in an interesting spot vs. Nola. Even though people won’t roster Nola vs. the Red Sox, they also may be hesitant to roster batters against him. Betts has been excellent over his past 10 games, posting an average distance of 246 feet, exit velocity of 95 miles per hour and hard-hit rate of 55%.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Robbie Ray
Photo credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
