Let’s get to it.
Chicago Bulls at Indiana Pacers (-7.5)
Implied Totals: 97 – 104.5, O/U: 201.5
Pau Gasol’s minutes limit had been described as “loosened” prior to tipoff last night. In fact, his handcuffs were taken off entirely as he finished with a team-high 43.8 DraftKings points on 34.3 minutes. Assuming he suits up in the second leg of this back-to-back, Gasol arguably the most valuable play among centers at DraftKings — along with a 99 percent Bargain Rating, he has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.81 in this slate. Despite having a similar Bargain Rating (95 percent), Jimmy Butler just doesn’t have the upside to even consider in tournaments at this time on account of his ailment (and obviously lingering injury). He has failed to meet expectations in six of his eight outings since returning. Derrick Rose, on the other hand, remains as strong of a play as any. He has a 98 percent Bargain Rating at DraftKings and a strong Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.06.
Although Myles Turner owns a horrendous average of 15.3 DraftKings points in his last two games, he also has a Bargain Rating of 90 percent at DraftKings. Given that his Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.23 is the highest among power forwards, I wouldn’t hesitate to go as far as rostering him in cash games. Ian Mahinmi deserves a hard look no matter the format despite his recent hike in salary: His Opponent Plus/Minus qualifies as the highest among centers at both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Brooklyn Nets at Orlando Magic (-6.5)
Implied Totals: 102.5 – 109, O/U: 211.5
In his last two games without Ersan Ilyasova and Nikola Vucevic, Aaron Gordon has averaged 30.7 minutes as Orlando’s primary power forward — he had averaged only 26.7 minutes alongside Ilyasova in the five games prior. With Ilyasova and Vucevic just recently ruled out, Gordon once again makes for a tremendous tournament play at both DraftKings and FanDuel. Expected to return, Victor Oladipo should also be rostered at DraftKings, where he has an absurdly cheap Bargain Rating of 97 percent. Although Elfrid Payton has an advantageous Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.98, he should be considered more of a tournament play alongside Oladipo. Despite averaging 35.3 DraftKings points in 31.9 minutes over his last two performances, Payton has averaged only 28.3 points in 28.7 minutes with Oladipo this season.
Shane Larkin’s implied total of 16.19 points (and 13.12 at FanDuel) is too good to pass up — he has exceeded expectations by +10.13 points over his last four games. Larkin additionally has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.34 in this slate. Still, the strongest cash play for Brooklyn remains Brook Lopez, who has a Bargain Rating of 95 percent at DraftKings. With his recent decline in salary, Lopez has averaged 37.7 DraftKings points over his last three games. He has an implied total of 32.29 points.
Charlotte Hornets (-11.5) at Philadelphia 76ers
Implied Totals: 109.5 – 98, O/U: 207.5
With Nerlens Noel, Richaun Holmes, and Jerami Grant all questionable for tonight, the workload would fall to Ish Smith and Robert Covington in their absence(s). Smith, for instance, remains underpriced at DraftKings, where he includes a Bargain Rating of 97 percent. Additionally, he has produced a Dud Percentage of only seven percent over the last month due to his lowly implied total. On that same note, Covington is also cash viable, as he has produced at least 33.75 DraftKings points in every game since returning from injury.
With the Hornets implied to score the second-most points in this slate, exposure should be directed where each player holds value. Kemba Walker, for instance, includes a 93 percent Bargain Rating at FanDuel, although he is more of a tournament play. Despite averaging 28.5 FanDuel points over his last seven games, he has failed to meet expectations in five of said instances. Marvin Williams should also have tournament exposure at FanDuel, where he has a Bargain Rating of 75 percent. Nicolas Batum remains best rostered at DraftKings, where his lower (in comparison to FanDuel) implied total of 32.75 points has seen him produce an immaculate Dud Percentage of zero percent over his last 15 games.
Oklahoma City Thunder (-3.5) at Detroit Pistons
Implied Totals: 109.3 – 105.8, O/U: 215
With the Thunder favored by only 2.5 points, it’s another night in which Russell Westbrook can be rostered in cash without concerns of a blowout. If choosing only one of the dynamic duo, I would lean toward Westbrook over Kevin Durant. Not only has Westbrook averaged 51.6 Draftings points over his last seven games but also his Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.72 remains much stronger than that of Durant’s (-2.17). Steven Adams is also a strong tournament option, given his lowly implied total of 15.73 points. He has averaged 24.4 DraftKings points in his last seven games.
Though his salary has plummeted due to poor performance as of late, Reggie Jackson remains valuable at FanDuel. where he is implied to score 23.15 points. His Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.69 also qualifies as second-highest at his position. If you’re not confident in rostering Jackson, however, Marcus Morris is a strongest tournament option for Detroit, as he has averaged 31.3 DraftKings points over his last four games. Note that Andre Drummond, who has the highest projected floor among centers, has averaged a team-high 43.4 points in that span.
Houston Rockets at Cleveland Cavaliers (-1.5)
Implied Totals: 104.3 – 106.3, O/U: 211.5
With LeBron James having been ruled out, roster construction should begin with Kyrie Irving at FanDuel. Implied to score only 27.52 points, Irving makes for an elite option, given his otherworldly usage rate of 37.8 percent without James this season. With an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.58, Kevin Love also makes for a strong cash play in the Cavaliers frontcourt. Note Love’s average of 30.3 DraftKings points without James this season.
Having averaged 62.1 DraftKings points over his last seven games, Harden has a ridiculously exploitable salary of $10,400 at DraftKings. In fact, his Opponent Plus/Minus of -1.39 shouldn’t matter, given his Projected Plus/Minus of +9.6. But I’d shy away from Dwight Howard entirely — along with a wretched Opponent Plus/Minus of -3.54 in this slate, Howard has averaged only 5.5 field goal attempts over his last eight games.
Washington Wizards at Golden State Warriors (-13)
Implied Totals: 106.5 – 119.5, O/U: 226
The last time these teams played against each other, Stephen Curry finished with 70.8 DraftKings points on a line of 51-7-2 and three steals. Draymond Green produced 57 DraftKings points that same evening. While our models show Green with an Opponent Plus/Minus of -1.74, he remains a terrific cash option due to his Dud Percentage of zero percent (at both DraftKings and FanDuel) over the last month. Note Curry’s projected floor remains +0.4 points higher than that of Westbrook’s. If choosing only one, I lean slightly in favor of the latter given the closer spread (and higher, albeit minimal, Projected Plus/Minus).
Even though he is priced just under $10K at FanDuel, John Wall is arguably the most valuable point guard in this slate. With an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.45, Wall ’s 12 Pro Trends are additionally two more than any other player in tonight’s player pool. Still, it makes more sense in cash to pay the extra $800 for Curry. In tournaments, however, Wall is sure to be overlooked. It bodes well that he produced 65.3 DraftKings points in his last matchup with the Warriors.
Good luck!
