Baseball is back! Check back here throughout the day for updated blurbs as teams confirm their lineup. We’ll keep you updated on some of the day’s highest-impact trends by utilizing our Models and Vegas dashboard. Projected and confirmed lineups for every game can be found on our MLB Daily Lineups page.
Dodgers (-150) at Phillies (+138) — 7:05 PM EST
Phillies out: Cesar Hernandez
Phillies in: Trevor Plouffe
Cesar Hernandez will receive a rest day while he continues to heal his sore toe, so the Phillies will roll with Carlos Santana, Rhys Hoskins, and Odubel Herrera at the top of the order for their matchup against the Dodgers. They’re presently implied to score just 3.7 runs, although each of their top-six batters have posted positive ISO splits vs. right-handed pitchers over the past calendar year. Still, both teams will have to deal with the third-most pitcher-friendly Weather Rating in Monday’s main slate. The Dodgers will hand the ball to righty Ross Stripling, who has allowed one or less runs in three of his last four starts. Stripling has pitched well all season, averaging a +10.64 Plus/Minus with a 78 percent Consistency Rating on FanDuel in 14 starts. He’ll look to continue to limit big hits, as he ranks among the main slate’s top-five pitchers in average exit velocity and fly-ball rate allowed over the past 12 months. Stripling carries a strong 8.0 K Prediction and is especially in play on FanDuel, where his $9,600 price tag comes with a 75 percent Bargain Rating. The Phillies combined wOBA of .307 vs. right-handed pitchers over the past calendar year is the fourth-lowest mark in Monday’s main slate.
Cardinals (+106) at Reds (-115) — 7:10 PM EST
Reds out: Scooter Gennett (illness)
Reds in: Brandon Dixon
Scooter Gennett will receive a routine day off. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Brandon Dixon, who will start at second base and bat second for a Reds lineup presently implied to score an impressive 4.9 runs. The Reds boast a top-seven Team Value Rating on both DraftKings and FanDuel, although each of their starters boast a Bargain Rating of at least 70 percent on the latter site. Overall, each of Jose Peraza, Joey Votto, Jesse Winker, and Billy Hamilton have posted positive wOBA and ISO splits vs. righties over the past 12 months. Additionally, Eugenio Suarez will look to stay hot, as he ranks among the main slate’s top-two third basemen in average batted ball distance and exit velocity over the past 15 days. Right-handed pitcher Daniel Poncedeleon will make his major league debut with the main slate’s fifth-most hitter-friendly Weather Rating against a Reds lineup that has combined to post a mediocre .309 wOBA vs. right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months.
Yankees (-268) at Rays (+243) — 7:10 PM EST
Rays out: Adeiny Hechavarria (sore left oblique)
Rays in: Kevin Kiermaier (right foot discomfort)
Adeiny Hechavarria said he’s feeling better and could return Tuesday, but he’ll miss Monday’s matchup against the Yankees due to his sore left oblique. The good news is Kevin Kiermaier will return to the lineup and lead off despite discomfort in his right foot. While each of the Rays’ top-five batters have posted positive wOBA and ISO splits vs. righties over the past 12 months, they’re presently implied to score a slate-low 2.8 runs and are massive +243 underdogs. This is great news for Luis Severino, who has averaged 10.85 K/9 and a 0.99 WHIP over the past 12 months. Severino has pitched well all season, averaging a +7.6 Plus/Minus on FanDuel with a 67 percent Consistency Rating in 20 starts. He remains in play on FanDuel, where his $11,400 price tag comes with a 95 percent Bargain Rating and six Pro Trends. Historically, Severino has averaged 44 FanDuel points per game with a +13.5 Plus/Minus and an 87.5 percent Consistency Rating in eight career starts against the Rays. Only Patrick Corbin (8.4) has a higher K Prediction than Severino (8.3) among Monday’s starting pitchers.
