This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s slate.
Justin Verlander: Pitcher, Astros
Verlander is in an elite spot on Sunday, even though his K Prediction is on the lower side (6.9) for a pitcher of his caliber. The Tigers rank 29th in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) against right-handed pitchers this season (FanGraphs), and their projected lineup boasts a meager .305 weighted on-base average (wOBA) against righties over the past 12 months. The most intriguing aspect about this matchup is Verlander’s elite Vegas data as the Astros check in with massive -347 moneyline odds and the Tigers are sporting an abysmal 2.6 implied run total. Pitchers who own moneyline odds of at least -300 have historically dominated on FanDuel, averaging a +7.13 Plus/Minus with 70.7% Consistency. Verlander is extra appealing on FanDuel where he owns a 95% Bargain Rating (per our Trends tool).
Charlie Blackmon: Outfielder, Rockies
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top five-man DraftKings stack in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Rockies, who are implied for a slate-high 6.4 run total. It’s a decent spot for the Rockies as Mike Leake has struggled over his past two starts, allowing 20 hits and eight earned runs. In those two games, Leake allowed an average batted-ball distance of 223 feet, exit velocity of 94 miles-per-hour and hard-hit rate of 41%. Those numbers could spell trouble for him at Coors Field.
Blackmon has smashed righties over the past year, to the tune of a .412 wOBA and .291 isolated power (ISO). He’s also in excellent batted-ball form, sporting a 15-day/12-month distance differential of 35 feet. Further, Blackmon is generating tons of hard contact, evidenced by his 95-mph exit velocity and 55% hard-hit rate. Hitters with comparable batted-ball data at Coors have averaged a +2.49 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
Matt Carpenter: Third Baseman, Cardinals
On FanDuel, the Cardinals have the third-best Team Value Rating (82). They’re implied for a stellar 5.1 runs against Anthony Desclafani, who has allowed an awful 220-foot average distance, 95-mph exit velocity and46% hard-hit rate over his past two games.
The matchup against the righty will put Carpenter on the positive side of his wOBA and ISO splits. He’s smashed right-handed pitchers with his elite .381 wOBA and .245 ISO against them over the past 12 months. Carpenter’s 245-foot average batted-ball distance is the third-highest mark among third baseman. He’s projected to occupy the leadoff spot. Historically batters hitting from the leadoff spot featured in games with comparable implied run totals and comparable batted-ball data have averaged a +2.48 FanDUel Plus/Minus.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Justin Verlander
Photo credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
