Baseball is back! Check back here throughout the day for updated blurbs as teams confirm their lineup. We’ll keep you updated on some of the day’s highest-impact trends by utilizing our Models and Vegas dashboard. Projected and confirmed lineups for every game can be found on our MLB Daily Lineups page.
Yankees (-107) at Indians (-101) — 7:10 PM EST
Yankees out: Didi Gregorius
Didi Gregorius will receive a routine day off, so the Yankees will roll with Brett Gardner, Aaron Judge, and Aaron Hicks at the top of the order for their matchup against the Indians. They’re set up well against righty Shane Bieber, as each of Gardner, Judge, Neil Walker, and Tyler Wade have posted positive wOBA and ISO splits vs. right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. The Yankees are especially in play on Fanduel, where every batter except Giancarlo Stanton has a Bargain Rating of at least 76 percent. Judge, Hicks, Stanton, and Greg Bird form the main slate’s third-highest rated four-man stack on FanDuel in the Bales Model. Overall, the Yankees have posted a slate-high .341 wOBA vs. right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. Bieber will need to do a better job limiting big hits, as he ranks among the main slate’s bottom-five pitchers in average batted ball distance, exit velocity, and hard-hit rate allowed over the past 15 days. He’s allowed at least four runs in each of his last two starts.
Blue Jays (+197) at Red Sox (-215) — 7:10 PM EST
Red Sox out: Andrew Benintendi (bereavement list), Steve Pearce (left shin contusion)
Red Sox in: Brock Holt, Sam Travis
Andrew Benintendi has been placed on the bereavement list, which means he’ll miss a minimum of three games and could miss up to seven. Steve Pearce is dealing with a bruise on his left shin and will take the night off. They’ll be replaced in the lineup by Brock Holt and Sam Travis, respectively. They’ll bat second and seventh for a Red Sox lineup presently implied to score 5.8 runs – the second-highest mark in Friday’s main slate. Mookie Betts in particular is set up well against lefty Ryan Borucki, as Betts has posted positive wOBA and ISO splits vs. southpaws over the past calendar year. Exposure to Betts should be focused on FanDuel, where his $5,200 price tag comes with six Pro Trends and an 82 percent Bargain Rating. Still, Borucki has done a great job in limited action this season, allowing two or fewer runs and pitching at least six innings in each of his three starts. Ultimately, he’ll have his work cut out for him against a Red Sox lineup that has combined to post a .328 wOBA vs. left-handed pitchers over the past 12 months – the second-highest mark in Friday’s main slate.
Phillies (-122) at Marlins (+113) — 7:10 PM EST
Phillies out: Odubel Herrera
Phillies in: Trevor Plouffe
Odubel Herrera will get a day off, so Trevor Plouffe and Carlos Santana will bat third and fourth, respectively, for a Phillies lineup presently implied to score four runs. They don’t offer much power throughout the order, as only Plouffe has posted positive ISO splits vs. southpaws over the past 12 months. It’s good news for Wei-Yin Chen, who has averaged 6.95 K/9 and a 1.49 WHIP over the past calendar year. Chen has done a good job limiting big hits in the air recently, allowing an average batted ball distance of 191 feet with a 24 percent fly-ball rate over the past 15 days. Exposure to Chen should be focused on DraftKings, where his $4,800 price tag comes with a +2.8 Projected Plus/Minus and an 84 percent Bargain Rating. He carries strikeout upside against a Phillies lineup that has combined to strike out every .289 at bats over the past 12 months – the third-highest mark in Friday’s main slate.
Diamondbacks (+125) at Braves (-135) — 7:35 PM EST
Diamondbacks out: A.J. Pollock
Diamondbacks in: Steven Souza
A.J. Pollock will be replaced in the lineup by Steven Souza, who will bat cleanup for a Diamondbacks lineup presently implied to score four runs. They’ll face off against righty Anibal Sanchez, who has averaged a +7.3 Plus/Minus and a 55 percent Consistency Rating on FanDuel this season. Sanchez is again set up well on FanDuel, where his $7,300 salary is complemented by a +6.7 Projected Plus/Minus and a 73 percent Bargain Rating at a moderate 5-8 percent projected ownership rate. The Diamondbacks have combined to post a mediocre .293 wOBA vs. right-handed pitchers over the past calendar year. Still, Sanchez needs to do a better job limiting the deep ball, as he’s one of just four pitchers in Friday’s main slate that have allowed over 1.75 home runs per nine innings pitched over the past 12 months. Both lineups will have to deal with estimated wind gusts of five miles per hour blowing in from center field.
