Baseball is back! Check back here throughout the day for updated blurbs as teams confirm their lineup. We’ll keep you updated on some of the day’s highest-impact trends by utilizing our Models and Vegas dashboard. Projected and confirmed lineups for every game can be found on our MLB Daily Lineups page.
Phillies (+135) at Mets (-146) — 7:10 PM EST
Mets out: Asdrubal Cabrera (hyperextended left elbow), Brandon Nimmo
Mets in: Matt den Dekker, Dominic Smith
Asdrubal Cabrera left Tuesday’s game early due to a hyperextended left elbow, and he and Brandon Nimmo are not in the lineup against the Phillies and right-hander Vincent Velasquez, who was activated off the disabled list on Wednesday. Matt den Dekker was recalled from the minors on Wednesday and will start in center field and bat sixth. Wilmer Flores will slide over to second base, allowing Dominic Smith to enter the lineup and bat cleanup. The Mets are one of eight teams in the main slate presently implied to score fewer than 4.0 runs, but among that group, they are the only ones with a Team Value Rating on DraftKings north of 55. They also have the fourth-highest TVR (80) on FanDuel due to all the cheap bats. It’s unclear if Velasquez will have any restrictions in his first start since June 30th, but prior to the injury, he lasted at least six innings in four of his previous five outings. He’s facing a lineup with the lowest-team wOBA (0.251) and fourth-highest SO/AB rate (0.257).
Cardinals (-145) at White Sox (+134) — 8:10 PM EST
Cardinals in: Tommy Pham (left ankle contusion)
Tommy Pham was a late scratch prior to Tuesday’s game, but he’ll return to the lineup and bat second against the White Sox and lefty Carlos Rodon on Wednesday. The Cardinals are one of three teams presently implied to score 5.3 runs in the main slate, and they lead all teams with a 86 Team Value Rating on FanDuel and 89 TVR on DraftKings. The Cardinals’ top-rated four-man stack in the Bales Model is among the highest-rated, but many pale in comparison the Rockies’ offerings. Nonetheless, the Cardinals’ version costs close to $5,000 less than a Rockies’ amalgamation, and such a spread could help pay for Chris Sale or Jacob deGrom. Pham, Jose Martinez, and Jedd Gyorko are the only hitters in the lineup with a positive wOBA against lefties over the past year, and Gyorko and Martinez both rank in the top-four in batted ball distance differential at their position.
