The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features a split slate: The three-game early slate starts at 12:10 p.m. ET, while the 11-game main slate begins at 7:10 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
We have a nice pitching slate on tap Wednesday with four hurlers on FanDuel priced at $10,000 or more:
- Chris Sale (L) $12,600, BOS vs. TEX — B Colon (R)
- Jacob deGrom (R) $12,100 vs. PHI — V Velasquez (R)
- Lance McCullers (R) $11,400 vs. OAK — C Bassitt (R)
- Carlos Carrasco (R) $10,300 vs. CIN — T Mahle (R)
Sale has been dominant over the past year, possessing a 0.97 WHIP, 1.00 HR/9, and a slate-best 13.31 SO/9. On paper, Sale’s matchup against the Rangers is relatively average, as the Rangers rank 11th in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) against lefties this season (FanGraphs) and their projected lineup owns a 23.1% strikeout rate over the past 12 months. That said, Sale isn’t an average pitcher: He boasts an 8.1 K Prediction, and his 4.4 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) is the third-best mark in the majors. He’s averaging an absurd +12.20 FanDuel Plus/Minus with 80% Consistency over his past 10 starts. Sale’s only knock is his hard-hit differential of +12 percentage points over his past two starts. Still, he owns elite Vegas data: The Red Sox check in with the slate’s highest moneyline odds (-354), and the Rangers are implied for a minuscule 2.9 runs. Historically, pitchers with moneyline odds of at least -300 have averaged a +6.88 FanDuel Plus/Minus with 70.4% Consistency (per our Trends tool).
Jacob deGrom has been just as dominant as Sale over his past 10 starts, averaging an excellent +12.68 FanDuel Plus/Minus with 80% Consistency. Not only does deGrom have the slate’s second-highest K Prediction (8.6), but the home plate umpire (Dan Bellino) has historically allowed pitchers to exceed salary-based expectations by +1.20 FanDuel points. The matchup against the Phillies isn’t overly intimidating given their projected lineup has a 25% strikeout rate over the past year; the Phillies rank 17th in split-adjusted wRC+ this season. Additionally, the Phillies’ 3.1 implied run total is the second-lowest mark on the slate. Pitchers with comparable salaries, K Predictions, and Vegas data have historically been reliable investments, averaging a +7.74 FanDuel Plus/Minus with 69.1% Consistency.
McCullers gets one of the tougher matchups among the top-priced pitchers. Oakland’s projected lineup boasts a low 23.1% strikeout rate and high .333 weighted on-base average (wOBA) over the past 12 months. Moreover, the A’s rank fifth in wRC+ and first in hard-hit rate against right-handed pitchers this season. That said, McCullers enters this game in elite recent form, sporting a 172-foot average batted-ball distance, 89 mph exit velocity, and 29% hard-hit rate. The Astros also have favorable Vegas data, checking in with -212 moneyline odds; the A’s are implied for a paltry 3.3 runs. McCullers’ upside may be limited, however, considering he possesses a low K Prediction (6.0) for a pitcher with his salary. Historically, pitchers with comparable salaries, K Predictions, and Vegas data have averaged a +4.53 FanDuel Plus/Minus with 64.1% Consistency.
Carrasco also draws an unfavorable matchup against the Reds. Their projected lineup possesses a meager 21.7% strikeout rate and an elite .349 wOBA against righties over the past year. Consequently, Carrasco is sporting a mediocre 6.7 K Prediction. Even though the Indians are -191 moneyline favorites and the Reds’ 3.8 implied run total isn’t monstrous, pitchers with comparable salaries, K Predictions, and Vegas data have been relatively mediocre, averaging a +1.95 FanDuel Plus/Minus with 51.7% Consistency.
Values
Luke Weaver costs just $7,700 on DraftKings. He has a favorable matchup against a projected White Sox lineup that has a 28.7% strikeout rate and .304 wOBA against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. Further, the White Sox also rank 21st in wRC+ against righties this season. Weaver’s 7.9 K Prediction is the fifth-best mark on the slate, and the Cardinals check in as -137 moneyline favorites.
Freddy Peralta costs $10,300 on DraftKings, leaving him off as a value over there, but on FanDuel he costs $8,700 with a 93% Bargain Rating. Peralta gets one of the best matchups on the board against a Marlins team that ranks 23rd in wRC+ against righties, and their projected lineup owns a weak .288 wOBA over the past 12 months against them. Peralta’s 10.3 K Prediction leads the slate, and the Brewers are solid -164 moneyline favorites. Peralta is likely the best pay-down option on FanDuel to get exposure to the higher-priced batters.
Fastballs
Michael Foltynewicz is more of a value on FanDuel, where he owns an 85% Bargain Rating. Foltynewicz boasts a respectable 7.2 K Prediction against the Jays, and the Braves are sitting with -157 moneyline odds. The matchup doesn’t jump off the page against a projected Blue Jays lineup that has a 24.1% strikeout rate over the past year and ranks 10th in split-adjusted wRC+ this season, but options are thin after the top-priced pitchers.
Kenta Maeda: He can be sporadic considering he rarely pitches deep into games, but the matchup against the Padres is as good as it gets. They rank 28th in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers this season, and their projected lineup boasts a high split-adjusted 28.6% strikeout rate and pedestrian .291 wOBA over the past 12 months.
Lance Lynn: The Twins are -203 moneyline favorites against the Royals on the early slate, and their 3.9 implied run total is the lowest mark on the early slate. Lynn’s 5.4 K Prediction leaves much to be desired, but there aren’t any surefire options on the early slate.
Gio Gonzalez: He is another option in consideration on the early slate with the slate’s highest K Prediction (7.5). There’s risk, however: The projected Pirates lineup boasts a low 22.9% strikeout rate against lefties over the past year. They also own a 4.2 implied run total, and the Nationals are just -135 moneyline favorites.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. One of the top five-man early-slate DraftKings stacks in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Twins, who are implied for 5.7 runs:
2. Eddie Rosario (L)
3. Brian Dozier (R)
4. Eduardo Escobar (S)
5. Logan Morrison (L)
6. Jorge Polanco (S)
Total salary: $21.4K
It’s a sublime matchup for the Twins against Burch Smith. Over the past 12 months, Smith possesses a dreadful 1.70 WHIP and 2.08 HR/9. Smith does have strikeout upside, but there’s no telling how long he’ll last in this game since this is his first game in the Royals’ starting rotation.
It’s a great spot for Eddie Rosario, Eduardo Escobar, and Jorge Polanco, all of whom will be on the positive side of their wOBA and isolated power (ISO) splits. All three hitters have elite wOBAs of .369 or higher, along with ISOs that exceed .286. Brian Dozier will be on the negative side of his splits, but he’s in excellent batted-ball form, sporting an elite 255-foot average distance, 96 mph exit velocity, and 48% hard-hit rate.
The top main-slate FanDuel stack in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Rockies, who are implied for 6.1 runs:
- DJ LeMahieu (R)
- Charlie Blackmon (L)
- Nolan Arenado (R)
- Carlos Gonzalez (L)
Total salary: $16.8K
The Rockies will take on Shelby Miller, who is allowing some of the worst recent batted-ball data on the slate. Over his past two starts, he’s allowing opposing teams to hit for an average distance of 223 feet, along with an absurdly-high exit velocity of 99 mph and hard-hit rate of 68%. If that trend continues, Rockies batters will have a day.
Charlie Blackmon possesses an elite .408 wOBA and .286 ISO against right-handed pitchers over the past year. Not to mention, hitters in similar lineup spots at Coors Field have historically averaged a +2.65 FanDuel Plus/Minus with 52.4% Consistency.
It’s typically wise to get some exposure to Coors Field with its 100 Park Factor. Aside from the Park Factor, this game will feature a Weather Rating of 100, as it’s projected to be in the 90s at game time. Historically, games at Coors Field with Weather Ratings in the 90th percentile have yielded an average +2.68 FanDuel Plus/Minus to hitters with 50.1% Consistency.
Other Batters
Jose Martinez and the Cardinals have a solid 5.0 implied run total. Martinez has crushed left-handed pitchers over the past 12 months to the tune of a .449 wOBA and .280 ISO. He is also in terrific batted-ball form, possessing a 237-foot average distance, 94 mph exit velocity, and 40% hard-hit rate.
J.D. Martinez may go lower owned than usual considering he is more expensive than the Coors Field hitters. The Red Sox’s 5.8 implied run total checks in just below the Rockies’ mark. Martinez smashes right-handed pitchers, evidenced by his .449 wOBA and .385 ISO. Additionally, he’s obliterating the baseball with his 248-foot average distance, 96 mph exit velocity, and 51% hard-hit rate.
Travis Shaw went yard on Tuesday, but he’s still sporting a +39 Recent Batted Ball Luck (RBBL) Score on FanDuel. Shaw has fared well against right-handed pitchers over the past year, boasting a .361 wOBA and .244 ISO. His recent Statcast data is solid, as he owns a 234-foot average distance, 94 mph exit velocity, and 41% hard-hit rate. All of those marks are positive differentials compared to his 12-month average.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Chris Sale
Photo credit: Amy Kontras-USA TODAY Sports
