The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday features a massive 14-game main slate that starts at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
On FanDuel, there are three pitchers who cost $10,000 or more:
- Chris Sale (L) $12,500, BOS @ KC – J. Hammel (R)
- Jacob deGrom (R) $12,000, NYM vs. TB – R. Stanek (R)
- Lance McCullers (R) $11,300, HOU vs. CWS – R. Lopez (R)
Sale checks in with largest moneyline odds on the slate (-301) and faces a Royals team implied for a slate-low 2.9 runs. However, the projected Kansas City lineup doesn’t strike out much against lefties (22.6% strikeout rate over the past 12 months), even with a subpar .291 weighted on-base average (wOBA) within the same time frame. By Sale’s standards, his 8.3 K Prediction is on the low end, but he has historically dominated when the Red Sox are at least -200 moneyline favorites. Per our MLB Trends tool, he’s posted 50.04 FanDuel points per game, a +12.76 average Plus/Minus, and a 73.1% Consistency Rating over the last two seasons.
DeGrom has an excellent matchup against the Rays, whose projected lineup owns a subpar 26.2% strikeout rate and slate-worst .283 wOBA against righties over the past 12 months. Furthermore, the Mets are -165 moneyline favorites, and the Rays own a paltry, 3.1-run implied total. However, deGrom does have worrisome Statcast data over the past 15 days with a 96-mph exit velocity and 57% hard-hit rate. Those numbers could spell trouble as deGrom is a prime regression candidate with a bottom-two, -67 recent Batted Ball Luck (BBL).
McCullers and his 1.37 WHIP is much worse than both Sale (0.98) and deGrom (1.10) over the past 12 months, but his recent Statcast data is far more impressive than any high-priced option today. Over his last two starts, McCullers has yielded a batted-ball distance of only 185 feet, exit velocity of 89 mph and fly-ball and hard-hit rates of 17% and 31%. The matchup against the White Sox is above average, but McCullers could carry less strikeout upside overall with his middling 6.4 K Prediction. That said, pitchers with comparably immaculate recent batted-ball data and subpar K Predictions have still been solid investments, sporting a +2.23 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
Values
Joey Lucchesi is a slight underdog against the Diamondbacks (+127 moneyline odds), but his 6.8 K Prediction indicates he could still be viable, especially priced at $7,000 on FanDuel with an 85% Bargain Rating. The matchup is great, as the Diamondbacks’ projected lineup has just a 28.7% strikeout rate and .295 wOBA against lefties over the past year, both top-four on the slate. Lucchesi has arguably the best Statcast data on the slate, including a 158-foot batted-ball distance allowed. Pitchers with comparable Vegas data, K Predictions and Statcast numbers tend to be reliable options, having posted 33.50 FanDuel points per game, a +5.30 average Plus/Minus and a 60.0% Consistency Rating.
In the same game, Zack Godley is also in play, as the Padres’ projected lineup has a 28.5% strikeout rate against righties over the past year and ranks 26th in split-adjusted wRC+ this season. Godley’s Vegas data is considerably better as the Diamondbacks are -138 moneyline favorites, and the Padres are implied for the fourth-fewest runs on the slate (3.7). Godley almost always offers strikeout upside — sporting a top-five 7.4 K Prediction today — but the Padres are also a juicy matchup, including a bottom-two .286 wOBA over the past year. The matchup makes Godley’s bottom-two 1.48 WHIP much more palatable, especially as a high-ceiling option for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Fastballs
Michael Foltynewicz: He enters this game in elite recent form, holding opposing teams to a recent batted-ball distance of 183 feet, a fly-ball rate of 22% and hard-hit rate of 27%. Foltynewicz’s 9.0 K Prediction is second-highest on the slate, but the Brewers are implied for 4.6 runs and are currently -133 moneyline favorites. Despite Foltynewicz’s Vegas data leaving a lot to be desired, underdog pitchers with similar Statcast numbers and K Predictions have smashed on DraftKings with a +3.44 average Plus/Minus, and a 66.7% Consistency Rating in a small sample.
Freddy Peralta: The strikeout upside for both pitchers in this game set up perfectly for GPPs, and Peralta has been excellent over the past year, sporting an elite 0.33 HR/9 and 13.26 SO/9. Peralta has a tough matchup against the Braves, whose lineup owns a middling 24.1% strikeout rate and .314 wOBA against righties over the past year. Overall, Peralta’s upside could still be huge, with him possessing a massive slate-leading 9.8 K Prediction, and the Brewers are -133 moneyline favorites.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. One of the top DraftKings stacks in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Yankees, who are implied for 5.2 runs:
- Judge (R)
- Hicks (S)
- Stanton (R)
- Gregorius (L)
- Andujar (R)
Total Salary: $23.7k
Typically it is -EV to leave off a No. 1 hitter in your stack, but Brett Gardner has been terrible lately, sporting a batted-ball distance of 176 feet, exit velocity of 86 mph and 18% hard-hit rate over the past 15 days.
The remaining Yankees could be chalky against Blue Jays pitcher Sam Gaviglio, whose 1.67 HR/9 is bottom-three on the slate over the past year, and the projected New York lineup boasts a top-three .344 wOBA against righties over the same time period. Aaron Hicks stands out as one of the top batting options on the slate, with impressive recent Statcast differentials versus his year-long averages: including a distance of +44 feet, exit velocity of +4 mph and hard-hit rate of +11 percentage points. That said, he is much more affordable on FanDuel with a 90% Bargain Rating.
One of the top four-man FanDuel stacks in the Bales Model belongs to the Red Sox, who are implied for a healthy 5.2 runs:
- Betts (R)
- Benintendi (L)
- Martinez (R)
- Moreland (L)
Boston will square off against Kansas City righty Jason Hammel, who owns a slate-worst 1.51 WHIP and low 6.81 SO/9 over the past 12 months. Projected to bat third, J.D. Martinez has an elite .439 wOBA and .369 ISO against righties over the past 12 months. He’s in excellent recent batted-ball form, sporting a 241-foot average distance, 95-mph exit velocity and 42% hard-hit rate. Historically, hitters in similar lineup spots with comparable batted-ball metrics and implied run totals have averaged a +1.98 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
Other Batters
The Nationals’ 5.4 implied run total is second-highest today, and both Anthony Rendon and Bryce Harper will likely be popular stacking options in the No. 4 and 5 spot against the Marlins. Rendon has been crushing the ball lately, posting a massive 253-foot average distance with a 95-mph exit velocity and 42% hard-hit rate. Harper has been considerably unlucky lately, with a +55 Batted Ball Luck over his last 13 games, so he could be due for a breakout with stellar Statcast data in his own right.
Jose Ramirez is expected to occupy the No. 3 spot for the Indians today and has excellent Statcast data over the past 15 days with an average distance of 246 feet, exit velocity of 97 miles per hour and hard-hit rate of 60%, all of which represent an increase when compared to his 12-month averages. What could set him apart today is he has destroyed righties over the past year with an absurd .412 wOBA and .298 ISO.
Arizona’s Paul Goldschmidt has immense theoretical upside against Lucchesi, who despite having impressive recent Statcast numbers has been susceptible to the long ball with a 1.57 HR/9 over the past 12 months. Goldy has been playing as well as anyone recently with an unreal 248-foot batted-ball distance, 94-mph exit velocity and 50% fly-ball rate. He is also on the right side of his dramatic batting splits, sporting an elite .464 wOBA and .392 ISO against left-handed pitching.
With no Vegas data at the time of this writing, the Dodgers could be a potential pivot as West Coast games tend to be lower owned. Joc Pederson has been crushing the ball lately with an average distance of 251 feet, exit velocity of 95 miles per hour and hard-hit rate of 51%, numbers that smash his 12-month averages. Angels righty Felix Pena owns a slate-high 2.14 HR/9 over the past 12 months, and of all Dodgers, Pederson has been the best at getting the ball in the air with a 57% fly-ball rate over the past 15 days.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: J.D. Martinez
Photo credit: Winslow Townson – USA TODAY Sports
