The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday offers a nine-game main slate that begins at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
There are three main slate pitchers who cost $10,000 or more on DraftKings:
Max Scherzer has won each of the past two NL Cy Young awards and is having arguably his best season in 2018. He’s posted an ERA of 2.04 through his first 17 starts while averaging a career-high K/9 of 13.00. Additionally, his 93.0% Consistency Rating on DraftKings is pretty absurd given his high-end price tags:
He has one of the tougher matchups on the board against a Red Sox team that ranks first in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) against righties this season (FanGraphs), evidenced by Scherzer’s low -173 moneyline odds. However, historically he has still dominated with comparable Vegas data since 2014 (per our Trends tool):
Corey Kluber is in an interesting spot against a projected Royals lineup that doesn’t strike out at an exorbitantly high rate, fanning only 23.1% of the time over the past month. That said, his 8.1 K Prediction trails only Scherzer’s (9.8) and Luis Castillo‘s (9.1), and the Indians are slate-high -260 moneyline favorites. The Royals’ 3.0 implied run total is also the lowest on the slate. Kluber’s a much better value on FanDuel with a Bargain Rating of 90%, and historically pitchers with comparable salaries, K Predictions, and Vegas data have been outstanding:
Madison Bumgarner’s salary is on the higher end among pitchers today, but his 5.7 K Prediction is incredibly low against Colorado at Coors Field. The opposing Rockies have a 5.5 implied run total, and the game is basically a pick’em, as the Giants are just -105 moneyline favorites. Pitchers with comparable salaries and K Predictions have historically averaged a mediocre -0.27 DraftKings Plus/Minus, but it has happened only once at Coors Field (and it wasn’t pretty). Who at DraftKings forgot to fix Bumgarner’s price to adjust for Coors today?
Values
Despite averaging only 5.5 innings pitched per game over the past year, Luis Castillo stands above the rest of the value plays today. He’s just $5,700 on DraftKings and has a massive 9.1 K Prediction against a projected White Sox lineup with a slate-leading 31.3% strikeout rate against righties. Castillo is a solid pitcher with a 1.22 WHIP and 9.50 SO/9 over the past year, and his recent Statcast data is also hard to pass up. Castillo has yielded an elite 178-foot batted ball distance and 86 mph exit velocity over the past 15 days. Pitchers with similar salaries and K Predictions have historically provided a +5.55 Plus/Minus, and comparable recent Statcast data is essentially unprecedented in our Trends tool.
Fastballs
Robbie Ray: He would have nearly reached the stud category on FanDuel — and his slate-leading 13.73 SO/9 over the past year does wonders to justify his $9,400 price tag — but his matchup is terrible against the Cardinals, who have crushed left-handed pitching with a .325 wOBA over that same time period. Even so, Ray owns an impressive 7.7 K Prediction, and the opposing Cardinals are implied for a paltry 3.7 runs.
With top-five moneyline odds (-165), Vegas is a believer in Alex Wood and the Dodgers, who are taking on a Pirates team with the second-lowest implied total on the slate (3.2). That said, Wood’s upside appears to be extremely limited with a pathetic 4.6 K Prediction against a projected Pittsburgh lineup that rarely strikes out to lefties (20.6%). Historically, pitchers with comparable Vegas data and strikeout upside have garnered significant ownership but underperformed on DraftKings:
Jonathan Loaisiga: The public could gravitate toward his low price tag on FanDuel ($6,700) and the Yankees’ -187 moneyline odds, but the matchup couldn’t get much worse against Atlanta. The Braves sport an elite 19.5% strikeout rate and .340 wOBA against right-handed pitching over the past year. The argument for Loaisiga in guaranteed prize pools is his elite Statcast data, including a batted-ball distance allowed of 154 feet, exit velocity of 86 mph, and fly-ball and hard-hit rates of 14% and 33%. He’s probably not necessary with Castillo in the slate, but if you do decide to roll the dice with Loaisiga and save salary in a unique way, it could pay off.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top five-man DraftKings stack in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Rockies, who are implied for 5.5 runs:
Both the Reds and Yankees are implied for 5.7 runs, so today’s slate doesn’t necessarily come down to Scherzer vs. Coors Field bats as it may appear on the surface. If attacking Coors, the Rockies have a significantly better matchup than the Giants, given that Bumgarner has yet to show the strikeout potential that made him a premier starter in the past.
The projected Rockies lineup has also smashed left-handed pitching over the past year with a .322 wOBA. Nolan Arenado, DJ LeMahieu, Trevor Story, and Ian Desmond all own elite numbers against lefties over the past year:
All of them are in excellent recent batted-ball form. Most notably, Arenado has posted elite batted-ball differentials of +33 feet, +5 mph, and +18% hard-hit rate over the past 15 days.
The top four-man FanDuel stack in the Batted Ball Model belongs to the Reds, who are implied for a slate-high 5.7 runs and 82 Team Value Rating:
The Reds stack may be chalky at home against White Sox righty James Shields, who owns a bottom-four 1.53 HR/9 mark over the past 12 months.
Joey Votto has crushed righties over the past year to the tune of a .435 wOBA. He’s in elite recent batted-ball form, sporting a 255-foot average distance, 97 mph exit velocity, and massive 57% hard-hit rate, the last of which represents a 15-day/12-month differential of +18%. Hitters with comparable batted-ball metrics and implied totals have historically averaged a +2.56 FanDuel Plus/Minus.
Other Batters
Brandon Belt is on the negative side of his batting splits against Rockies left-hander Kyle Freeland, but he’s expected to occupy the key cleanup spot in the Giants lineup at Coors Field. He owns a recent average exit velocity of 97 miles per hour and hard-hit rate of 53%, both significant increases compared to his 12-month averages.
Aaron Hicks and Aaron Judge have immense upside against Braves righty Anibal Sanchez, who has allowed a top-two 1.78 HR/9 mark over the past 12 months and has been absolutely abused lately. He’s surrendered a batted-ball distance allowed of 231 feet and massive 57% fly-ball rate over his past two starts. Hicks has been playing as well as anyone recently with an unreal 253-foot batted-ball distance, 96 mph exit velocity, and 47% fly-ball rate. With Scherzer and Coors in the slate, it’s tough to pay up for a guy like Judge, but it could certainly pay off with his elite .419 wOBA and .334 ISO against right-handed pitching over the past year.
The Dodgers are outside the top tier with a 4.4 implied run total, so they could go under-owned. Projected to lead off, Chris Taylor has quietly been swinging a hot bat; it just hasn’t translated into fantasy success recently with 7.2 FanDuel points per game over the past month. His +70 Recent Batted Ball Luck (RBBL) score indicates he could be due for a breakout, and his distance differential of +52 feet trails only his teammate Joc Pederson‘s mark for the slate lead.
Francisco Lindor and the Indians are implied for 5.1 runs against Royals righty Jake Junis, who tends to give up the long ball, as evidenced by his bottom-three 1.63 HR/9 mark over the past 12 months. Further, Junis has allowed a bottom-two 48% hard-hit rate over the past 15 days. Meanwhile, Lindor boasts a 240-foot average distance with a stellar 94 mph exit velocity and 56% fly-ball rate. He also sports an excellent .373 wOBA and .264 ISO against righties over the past 12 months.
Good luck, and make sure you check out The Action Network for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Max Scherzer
Photo credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
