The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and Predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday features a nine-game main slate on DraftKings and an eight-game main slate on FanDuel that begins at 1:05 p.m. ET. FanDuel also has a 15-game all-day slate that starts at the same time.
Pitchers
Studs
On FanDuel, there are two pitchers at $10,000 or more:
Luis Severino has been outstanding this season, averaging a +11.09 FanDuel Plus/Minus with 76% Consistency. He checks in as the most expensive pitcher on the day, but he arguably has the toughest matchup. In the past year, the projected Red Sox lineup has fared well against right-handed pitchers, sporting a 21.5% strikeout rate and .336 weighted on-base average (wOBA). That said, Severino sports favorable Vegas data since the Red Sox are implied for a paltry 3.4 runs and the Yankees are sizeable -192 moneyline favorites.
Severino has potential to overcome difficult matchups with his elite strikeout ability (11.06 SO/9 over the past 12 months). His 7.3 K Prediction is solid, but he also owns elite batted-ball data over the past 15 days with a 177-foot average distance, 86-mph exit velocity and 27% hard-hit rate. Historically, pitchers with comparable salaries, K Predictions and Vegas data have been serviceable (per our Trends tool):
Charlie Morton boasts the largest K Prediction (8.2) on Sunday. On paper, the matchup against the Rays is relatively average: Their projected lineup owns a 26% strikeout rate and .326 wOBA against right-handed pitchers over the past year, and the Rays rank 16th in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+), per FanGraphs.
However, their 3.3 implied run total is among the lowest on the day. If it weren’t for Blake Snell pitching opposite of Morton, they’d likely have higher than -134 moneyline odds. Morton is also in good form, limiting his past two opponents to a 188-foot average distance and 88-mph exit velocity. Pitchers with comparable K Predictions, salaries and Vegas data have historically been worthy investments:
Values
Jon Lester costs $8,100 with a 74% Bargain Rating on DraftKings. While there is no over/under set for the Twins-Cubs game yet, the Cubs check in with -172 moneyline odds. Lester has done great over the past month, averaging a +5.80 DraftKings Plus/Minus with a 100% Consistency Rating. The projected Twins lineup has been below average against left-handed pitchers over the past year, evidenced by their .302 wOBA. Additionally, they rank 25th in wRC+ against lefties this season. Historically, pitchers with comparable salaries, K Prediction (7.3) and moneyline odds have been viable value options on DraftKings:
Steven Matz costs a mere $6,800 on DraftKings and $6,900 on FanDuel if you’re looking to load up on hitters. His 5.6 K Prediction doesn’t jump off the page, but the matchup against the Marlins is enticing. Their projected lineup boasts a 28.2% strikeout rate and awful .286 wOBA against lefties over the past 12 months. The Marlins also rank dead last in wRC+ against left-handed pitchers this season. The Mets check in as slight -115 moneyline favorites, but the Marlins’ 3.9 implied run total is the fourth-lowest mark on the main slate.
Fastballs
James Paxton: He has a matchup against a contact-oriented Royals team that is implied for a woeful 2.9 runs. Despite the Royals not being a high strikeout team, Paxton always possesses high strikeout potential given his 11.23 SO/9 over the past year. He owns an excellent 98% Bargain Rating on FanDuel, along with a solid 7.5 K Prediction Sunday, and the Mariners are heavy favorites with -249 moneyline odds.
Ross Stripling: Over the past month, Stripling has dominated, averaging a +14.47 FanDuel Plus/Minus with 92% Consistency. He’s sitting with an exceptional 7.3 K Prediction, and the Dodgers are massive -201 moneyline favorites. It’s an intriguing matchup against the Rockies as they’re implied for 3.3 runs and they rank dead last in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers this season.
Mike Clevinger: The below-average matchup against the A’s (fifth in wRC+ against righties this season) should make Clevinger relatively low owned. It’s not the worst spot with the Indians sitting as -131 moneyline favorites and he has a respectable 6.7 K Prediction. Overall, Clevinger has been solid this season with a nice 69% Consistency Rating. The primary concern with him is the difficult matchup, and the A’s 4.0 implied run total is mildly concerning.
J.A. Happ: He and the Blue Jays are one of the largest favorites on the day (-192 moneyline) against a Tigers team that averages a weak 3.99 runs per game, nearly half a run below the league average. Moreover, the Tigers are implied for just 3.6 runs. However, Happ doesn’t flash a ton of upside (5.6 K Prediction) and the projected Tigers lineup owns a low 22.5% strikeout rate against lefties over the past 12 months while ranking seventh in split-adjusted wRC+. Nevertheless, the favorable Vegas data and 80% Bargain Rating make Happ worth consideration.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. One of the top DraftKings stacks in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Blue Jays, who are implied for 5.0 runs:
It’s an enticing matchup for the Blue Jays against Jordan Zimmerman, who is allowing a 240-foot average batted-ball distance over his past two starts. The matchup against the righty will put Curtis Granderson on the positive side of his wOBA and isolated power (ISO) splits: He’s crushed righties over the past year to the tune of a .356 wOBA and .245 ISO. Granderson is smoking the baseball over the past 15 days with a whopping 236-foot average distance, 96-mph exit velocity and 42% hard-hit rate. All three marks represent positive differentials when compared to his 12-month average. Justin Smoak has also fared well against righties, evidenced by his .347 wOBA and .233 ISO: He’s also in solid form with his 239-foot average distance.
One of the top all-day FanDuel stacks on in the CSURAM88 Player Model belongs to the Rangers, who are implied for a whopping 5.7 runs:
It’s a prime matchup for the Rangers against White Sox righty Reynaldo Lopez. Lopez has awful batted-ball data over his past two games with a 262-foot average distance, 95-mph exit velocity and 42% hard-hit rate. Joey Gallo is on a heater with a home run in back-to-back games — which is unsurprising considering his massive amount of power (.311 ISO) he’s shown over the past 12 months against right-handed pitching. While Gallo tends to be a boom-or-bust option, he’s definitely booming right now, sporting a 250-foot average distance, 96-mph exit velocity and 52% hard-hit rate. With the White Sox-Rangers game featuring a Weather Rating of 84, this seems like a good spot to keep riding the Gallo heat wave.
Rougned Odor is also in favorable recent batted-ball form, posting a positive 15-day/12-month differential in average distance (+23 feet), exit velocity (+4 mph) and hard-hit rate (+13-percentage points).
Other Batters
The Brewers may be a popular option with a 4.9 implied run total against Matt Harvey. Their projected hitters in the top three of the order are all in excellent batted-ball form over the past 15 days:
Eric Thames and Jesus Aguilar each possess wOBAs over .370 and ISOs above .268 against left-handed pitchers over the past year. Even more impressive is they all own exit velocities of at least 94 mph. Historically, hitters batting within the top-three of the lineup with comparable exit velocities and implied run totals have averaged a +2.05 FanDuel Plus/Minus. However, you’ll only be able to choose two of these three hitters on FanDuel with the flex spot. On DraftKings, Thames is 1B/OF eligible so he’d have to be one of your two from this grouping.
Manny Machado has an excellent 50% Consistency Rating on DraftKings over his past 10 games. He’s smashed the ball over his past 13, boasting a 240-foot average distance, 96-mph exit velocity and 47% hard-hit rate. Additionally, he’s crushed right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months, owning a .381 wOBA and .242 ISO against them. Historically, hitters with comparable batted-ball metrics featured in games with similar implied run totals (5.2) have averaged a +1.48 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
Bryce Harper has an 82% Bargain Rating on FanDuel against the Phillies. He’ll square off against Jake Arrieta, who has allowed a 45% hard-hit rate over his past two games. Harper has historically obliterated right-handed pitchers, possessing an elite .403 wOBA and .318 ISO against them over the past year. His $4,100 price tag is a season-low on FanDuel this season and his 10.9-point median projection is the fourth-highest mark among outfielders.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Rougned Odor and Joey Gallo
Photo credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
