Baseball is back! Check back here throughout the day for updated blurbs as teams confirm their lineup. We’ll keep you updated on some of the day’s highest-impact trends by utilizing our Models and Vegas dashboard. Projected and confirmed lineups for every game can be found on our MLB Daily Lineups page.
Yankees (-218) at Phillies (+199) — 7:05 PM EST
Yankees out: Brett Gardner
Yankees in: Aaron Hicks
Brett Gardner will receive a routine day off, so the Yankees will go with Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Hicks, and Aaron Judge from left to right field. They’ll bat fourth, first, and second, respectively, for a Yankees lineup currently implied to score a respectable 4.6 runs. Judge in particular is set up well against righty Jake Arrieta, as he’s posted a .416 wOBA and a .333 ISO vs. right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. Exposure to Judge should be focused on FanDuel, where his $4,600 price tag comes with seven Pro Trends and a 76 percent Bargain Rating. Arrieta hasn’t exactly done a great job limiting big hits recently, ranking among the main slate’s bottom-six pitchers in both average exit velocity and hard-hit rate allowed over the past 15 days. He’ll have his hands full with a Yankees lineup that has combined to post a slate-high .343 wOBA vs. righties over the past 12 months.
Royals (+194) at Brewers (-212) — 8:10 PM EST
Brewers out: Lorenzo Cain (tight groin), Travis Shaw (right wrist)
Brewers in: Brad Miller, Hernan Perez
Lorenzo Cain will miss another game with a tight groin, while Travis Shaw continues to deal with a right wrist injury. Christian Yelich and Jesus Aguilar will bat third and fourth, respectively, for a Brewers lineup presently implied to score 4.8 runs. The Brewers are particularly in play on FanDuel, where they’re one of just seven teams with a Team Value Rating of at least 80. Overall, Eric Thames, Ryan Braun, and Aguilar form the main slate’s second-highest rated three-man stack on FanDuel in the Bales Model. Thames is the highest-rated batter in the Bales Model on both DraftKings and FanDuel, yet he carries modest projected ownership rates across the industry. Jake Junis has allowed seven home runs in his last 16.2 innings pitched and is one of just six pitchers in Tuesday’s main slate that have allowed at least 1.5 home runs per nine innings pitched over the past calendar year.
Blue Jays (+234) at Astros (-257) — 8:10 PM EST
Astros out: Carlos Correa (back stiffness)
Astros in: Marwin Gonzalez
Carlos Correa is dealing with stiffness in his back, so the Astros will roll with George Springer, Alex Bregman, and Jose Altuve at the top of the order for their matchup against the Blue Jays. They form the main slate’s fourth-highest rated three-man stack on FanDuel in projected points on the Bales Model. Southpaw Ryan Borucki will make his major league debut against an Astros lineup presently implied to score an impressive 5.4 runs. Overall, they’ve combined to post a .339 wOBA vs. right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months – the second-highest mark in Tuesday’s main slate. Only Altuve has posted negative wOBA splits vs. left-handed pitchers over the past 12 months among the Astros’ top-five batters in the order. Each of the Astros’ top-seven batter in the order carry a Bargain Rating of at least 63 percent on FanDuel.
Padres (+107) at Rangers (-116) — 8:05 PM EST
Padres in: Travis Jankowski (sore left quad)
Travis Jankowski missed three games due to a sore left quad, but he’ll lead off for a Padres lineup presently implied to score a solid 4.9 runs. They’re in play across the industry, as the Padres boast the highest Team Value Rating on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Overall, Jankowski, Manuel Margot, Hunter Renfroe, Freddy Galvis, and A.J. Ellis form the main slate’s fourth-highest rated five-man stack on DraftKings in the Bales Model. Jankowski is also in play on FanDuel, where his $2,700 price tag comes with a 90 percent Bargain Rating and a strong +1.63 Projected Plus/Minus. The Padres are set up well against Austin Bibens-Dirkx, who has averaged just 5.5 K/9 and a 1.3 WHIP over the past calendar year. Bibens-Dirkx has allowed a slate-high 52 percent hard-hit rate over the past 15 days. The Padres-Rangers’ matchup currently boasts the main slate’s most hitter-friendly Weather Rating, although both pitchers could benefit from estimated wind gusts of 12 miles per hour blowing in from right field.
Indians (-170) at Cardinals (+156) — 8:15 PM EST
Cardinals in: Tommy Pham (illness)
Tommy Pham missed two consecutive games with an illness, but he’ll bat second for a Cardinals lineup presently implied to score just 3.5 runs. Be sure to monitor the weather, as current forecasts call for an estimated 59 percent chance of precipitation. Both pitchers will have to deal with estimated wind gusts of eight miles per hour blowing out to left field, and the Indians-Cardinals’ matchup currently has the second-most hitter-friendly Weather Rating in Tuesday’s main slate. Corey Kluber has been his typical dominant self this season, posting a season-long +7.65 Plus/Minus with a 76 percent Consistency Rating on FanDuel. Kluber has a great 8.3 K Prediction and carries an 87 percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel, where he’s the second-highest rated pitcher on the Bales Model. Only Matt Carpenter, Marcell Ozuna, and Kolten Wong have posted positive wOBA and ISO splits vs. right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months among Cardinals starters.
