The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features a 10-game main slate at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
On DraftKings there are three main-slate pitchers who cost $11,000 or more:
Vegas is a believer in Justin Verlander, as the opposing Blue Jays are implied for a slate-low 2.8 runs, and the Astros have slate-high moneyline odds of -227. His 6.8 K Prediction is below average relative to his price tag, and the projected Blue Jays lineup has a low 22.1% strikeout rate against righties over the past year, but comparably priced pitchers with similar Vegas data and K Predictions have still been solid investments on DraftKings (per our Trends tool):
The larger issue with Verlander could be his recent form. Over his last two games, he’s allowed a batted-ball distance of 235 feet and fly-ball rate of 60%. What’s most peculiar about Verlander’s Statcast data is that he’s also had an amazingly low 22% hard-hit rate and solid 89-mph exit velocity. Pitchers with similarly mixed Statcast numbers have historically performed below expectation with a -1.14 DraftKings Plus/Minus. His -88 Recent Batted Ball Luck (RBBL) is the worst on the slate, so while Verlander has upside he might actually be a risk in cash games.
Unfortunately, this is not a slate with attractive high-priced pivots. Both Michael Foltynewicz and Mike Clevinger face teams with strikeout rates below 24.0% and implied totals of at least 3.8 runs. Foltynewicz and the Braves are -150 moneyline favorites, the slate’s third-highest mark, but he also has an exorbitant 54% fly-ball rate. His 5.7 K Prediction makes it tough to justify his price tag, but he at least provides value on FanDuel with his 99% Bargain Rating.
Clevinger has the best recent Statcast data of the high-price options, including a 198-foot batted-ball distance allowed, 88-mph exit velocity and 30% and 24% fly-ball and hard-hit rates. Similarly priced pitchers with mediocre Vegas data and impressive peripheral stats have provided a +0.87 DraftKings Plus/Minus with a 64.1% Consistency Rating at 11.9% ownership in large guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Values
Jameson Taillon and the Pirates are set to take on an underwhelming Mets team whose projected lineup owns a 25.7% strikeout rate and .307 wOBA against righties over the past 12 months. Taillon has the third-highest ceiling projection of any pitcher in our Models at just $7,900 on DraftKings, and he owns a solid 6.6 K Prediction against a New York team implied for just 3.8 runs. Historically, pitchers with comparable salaries, K Predictions and Vegas data have been solid value plays:
Felix Hernandez costs just $7,000 on DraftKings and has a serviceable 1.31 WHIP over the past year. He sports a healthy 6.8 K Prediction against the Orioles, who are 26th in wRC+ against righties this season and whose projected lineup owns a high strikeout rate (28.1%) over that same time period.
Fastballs
Gio Gonzalez: Priced just outside of the top-end category at $9,200 on DraftKings, Gonzalez is just $8,500 on FanDuel with a 77% Bargain Rating. The projected Rays lineup has a robust 28.2% strikeout rate against lefties over the past 12 months, and Gio’s 7.0 K Prediction leads the slate. The Nats are slight dogs (+112), but Gonzalez could benefit from a favorable park shift to Tropicana Field (85 Park Factor) against a Rays team implied for only 3.7 runs.
Jonathan Loaisiga: His slate-low 1.83 WHIP over the past year is terrifying for cash games, but his 10.98 SO/9 over that same time makes him much more interesting for GPPs. The Yankees are -143 moneyline favorites, and the Phillies are implied for only 3.9 runs. Loaisiga’s recent Statcast data is arguably the best on the slate, including an average distance allowed of 164 feet and low fly-ball rate of 13% over his past two starts.
Vincent Velasquez: On the other side of the Yankees-Phillies game, Velasquez is an interesting punt option on DraftKings, where he owns a 90% Bargain Rating. His 6.7 K Prediction and 10.62 SO/9 are top-three marks. His matchup against the Yankees is not ideal — they own a top-four 4.7-run implied total — but their .317 wOBA against righties is hardly imposing. Pitchers with comparable salaries, strikeout upside and Vegas data have averaged a +1.52 DraftKings Plus/Minus at a low 8.2% ownership.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top five-man DraftKings stack in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Rangers, who are implied for a slate-high 5.2 runs:
The Rangers will take on Padres lefty Joey Lucchesi, who sports a bottom-two HR/9 over the past year and got lit up in his last start, allowing an average distance of 301 feet, exit velocity of 98 miles per hour and hard-hit rate of 60%. The Texas lineup has crushed left-handed pitching with a .338 wOBA over the past 12 months.
No. 5 hitter Jurickson Profar is one of the highest-rated Texas batters, owning solid splits against left-handed pitching with a 0.370 wOBA and .290 ISO over the past 12 months. He is in good recent form as well with a batted-ball distance of 224 feet, exit velocity of 93 mph and 55% hard-hit rate over the past 15 days. Historically, batters with comparable lineup spots, implied totals and Statcast data have averaged a Plus/Minus of +0.33 with an impressive 20 Upside Rating.
On the main slate, the top non-Texas four-man FanDuel stack in the Bales Model belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks:
Arizona will square off against Marlins righty Dan Straily, who has an awful 1.52 WHIP and 2.04 HR/9 over the past 12 months. Straily has been hammered lately, with a batted-ball distance of 262 feet, exit velocity of 98 mph and fly-ball and hard-hit rates of 58%. David Peralta stands out as one of the top batters in our Models, and he has the second-most Pro Trends on the slate at nine.
Paul Goldschmidt is on the wrong side of his batting splits with -0.116 and -0.191 wOBA and ISO differentials against right-handed pitching over the past year, but few can match Goldy’s upside. His 256-foot batted-ball distance, 96-mph exit velocity and 52% hard-hit rate over the past 15 days rival the marks of almost every batter in the slate, but Goldschmidt should have a reasonable ownership rate with a middle-of-the-pack 4.5-run implied total.
Additional Batters
Joey Votto absolutely abuses right-handed pitching, and he could be a solid leverage play with just a 4.1-run implied total against Foltynewicz and the Braves. Few players in the league can match Votto’s .452 wOBA against righties, and he’s recent play has yielded an elite 250-foot batted-ball distance, 95-mph exit velocity and 53% hard-hit rate. Foltynewicz surrendered a 54% fly-ball rate in his last start: Votto should have significant power upside in 86-degree heat.
Robinson Chirinos is an affordable $3,300 on DraftKings and intriguing as a punt play at catcher. He’s projected to bat eighth for the Rangers, but Chirinos sports a splits-adjusted .409 wOBA and .247 ISO over the past year and solid Statcast differentials over the past 15 days. Texas will be chalky, so identifying a solid differentiator later in the order could be sharp in GPPs.
The Mariners are tied for the slate’s second-highest implied run total (5.0), and the middle of the order has upside with guys like Nelson Cruz and Ryon Healy, who both have elite Statcast differentials over the past 15 days:
Orioles righty Andrew Cashner owns a slate-low 6.15 SO/9 and subpar 1.42 WHIP over the past year, and Cruz and Healy could be in a prime spot to take advantage, especially on FanDuel, where they have 95% Bargain Ratings.
Just outside the top tier with an implied total of 4.6 runs, the Dodgers are intriguing. Joc Pederson has been crushing the ball lately with an average distance of 266 feet, exit velocity of 94 miles per hour and hard-hit rate of 61%, numbers that smash his 12-month averages with differentials of +47 feet, +4 mph and +23 percentage points.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Jake Lamb (22) and Paul Goldschmidt (44)
Photo credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
