This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s slate.
Chris Sale: Pitcher, Red Sox
Today’s slate features two of the best pitchers in the game in Sale and Justin Verlander. While Verlander has the better Vegas data, it’s hard to look past the upside that Sale offers against the Minnesota Twins. He’s averaged an unreal K/9 of 13.02 over the past 12 months, and the Twins have struck out in 24.0% of at bats against left-handers to start the season. His resulting K Prediction of 8.7 is the slate’s top mark.
Additionally, Sale enters this contest in elite recent form. He’s allowed a sparkling 157-foot average batted-ball distance over his past two starts, resulting in a 15-day/12-month differential of -46 feet. Pitchers with comparable recent Statcast data and K Predictions have historically been elite fantasy options (per the Trends tool):
The presence of Verlander on the slate should result in lower ownership than usual for Sale, which only increases his appeal in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
D.J. LeMahieu: Second Base, Rockies
The Mets have won three straight games, but their modest winning streak is in serious jeopardy today against the Rockies. They’re sending to the mound left-hander Jason Vargas, who has pitched to a dreadful 7.39 ERA through his first eight starts. Life won’t get easier for him at Coors Field, and the Rockies’ implied team total of 6.4 runs is the top mark on the slate by a significant margin:
One batter in particular who stands out for the Rockies is LeMahieu, who is slated to occupy the key leadoff spot in the projected lineup. He’s absolutely destroyed left-handers over the past 12 months with a .422 wOBA and .256 ISO, and he boasts an average exit velocity of 97 miles per hour and hard-hit rate of 52% over the past 15 days.
Joey Gallo: Outfield, Rangers
Gallo has struggled over his past 10 games, posting an average Plus/Minus of -1.17 on DraftKings, but that belies some unreal Statcast data over that time frame. He’s posted an average distance of 252 feet, exit velocity of 99 miles per hour and hard-hit rate of 76%, all three of which are among the best marks on the slate. The high-stakes players have taken notice, as Gallo owned one of the top Volatility Ratings in our DFS Ownership Dashboard on yesterday’s slate:
He has an exploitable matchup today against Royals right-hander Jason Hammel, who has pitched to a 5.00 ERA this year. Perhaps more importantly, he’s averaged a K/9 of just 5.85, which should help offset Gallo’s ridiculous 37.1% strikeout rate. Gallo has a .329 ISO against right-handers over the past 12 months and has the potential for a multi-home run game. He’s affordable on FanDuel at just $3,000 with a Bargain Rating of 82%.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more baseball coverage!
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: D.J. LeMahieu
Photo credit: Andrew Dieb-USA Today Sports
