The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features a 10-game main slate at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
On DraftKings there are three main-slate pitchers who cost $10,000 or more:
Gerrit Cole has a solid matchup today vs. the Rays, whose projected lineup has posted a strikeout rate of 27.8% against right-handers over the past 12 months. He has immaculate Vegas data as a -271 moneyline favorite against a Tampa Bay team implied for a slate-low 2.8 runs. Cole’s 8.5 K Prediction is also the top mark today, and his 10.93 SO/9 over the past year is third highest. Pitchers with comparable marks are rare, and the small sample has unsurprisingly been very chalky on DraftKings (per the Trends tool):
The biggest concern with Cole is his shaky recent form, including a -80 Recent Batted Ball Luck (RBBL): His Statcast data raises some red flags. His recent batted-ball distance is a middling 223 feet, and his 51% fly-ball rate is today’s second-highest mark. These numbers are much worse than his 12-month averages of 207 feet and 38%. His Vegas data and strikeout upside are undeniable, but pivoting away from him in guaranteed prize pools could pay off if regression strikes.
NOTE: The Rays-Astros game currently has rain in the forecast, so be sure to monitor its status up until lineup lock.
Jacob deGrom has an inflated opponent implied total of 4.6 runs thanks to the altitude at Coors Field, but he has the best Statcast data of the high-priced options, and it’s not close, including a recent batted-ball distance of 188 feet, 87-mph exit velocity and low 23% and 25% fly-ball and hard-hit rates. If you’re feeling frisky, he could make for an intriguing tournament play: He trails only Cole with his 8.2 K Prediction, and the Rockies’ 28.4% strikeout rate is the third-highest mark on the slate.
Trevor Bauer checks in with the second-largest moneyline odds on the slate (-268) and faces a White Sox team implied for a bottom-three 3.2 runs. He’s also been fantastic over the past month:
His 8.1 K Prediction is comparable to that of Cole and deGrom, and he might be preferable to them considering that he has 11+ strikeouts in each of the last four games and lacks their downside risk. Historically, pitchers with comparable Vegas data and K Predictions have outperformed on DraftKings, providing a +7.17 Plus/Minus and 78.3% Consistency Rating.
Values
Caleb Smith has a K Prediction (8.1) identical to Bauer’s, but he is $4,600 cheaper on DraftKings. The matchup is good, as the projected Giants lineup has a bottom-three .299 wOBA against left-handed pitching over the past year. Unfortunately, the Marlins have scored the second-fewest runs this season, so Smith is a +143 underdog, but his Vegas data could work in our favor for GPPs, since it will likely result in reduced ownership.
The more popular option in the Marlins-Giants game will undoubtedly be Andrew Suarez, who draws the premium matchup against a projected Marlins lineup that owns a high 28.6% strikeout rate and weak .279 wOBA against lefties over the past year. Moreover, the Marlins rank 26th in wRC+ against left-handed pitching this season. Suarez doesn’t have a high K Prediction (5.6), but the Giants are sizeable -155 moneyline favorites.
Fastballs
Nick Pivetta: His poor 1.39 WHIP doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence for cash games, but he could be a viable tournament play against a projected Cardinals lineup with an exploitable 26.0% strikeout rate against righties. Pivetta has a 10.20 SO/9 over the past 12 months.
Miles Mikolas: On the other side of the Cardinals-Phillies game, Mikolas is probably the safer play, so if you’re fine with the higher ownership rate he could provide value: He boasts a slate-leading 0.98 WHIP over the past year. Mikolas isn’t known for strikeout upside with a low 6.77 SO/9 over the past 12 months, but the Phillies own a 28.9% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching, and Mikolas has fantastic recent Statcast data, including an average distance allowed of 185 feet, exit velocity of 89 mph and hard-hit rate of 35%.
Kenta Maeda: He makes more sense on FanDuel, where he is a considerably better value with an 85% Bargain Rating. Maeda has a solid mid-range 6.6 K Prediction and will likely be contrarian in a terrible matchup against the Cubs, who rarely strike out against right-handed pitching (20.4%). He’s a slight -109 moneyline favorite, and the Cubs are implied for 4.2 runs, but similarly priced pitchers with comparable strikeout upside and Vegas data have historically averaged a 52.5% Consistency Rating at only 6% ownership in large GPPs.
NOTE: The Dodgers-Cubs game currently has rain in the forecast, so be sure to monitor its status up until lineup lock.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. One of the top five-man DraftKings stacks in the Bales Model belongs to the Royals, who are just outside the top tier with an implied total of 4.7 runs and a slate-leading Team Value Rating of 88:
This game sets up well for scoring: Both pitchers are terrible, and it’s being played in 87-degree Texas heat. The Royals are set to take on Rangers pitcher Bartolo Colon, who has some troublesome recent Statcast data with a 231-foot average distance, 98-mph exit velocity and 57% hard-hit rate. Colon’s 2.09 HR/9 is the worst on the slate.
Whit Merrifield is officially questionable for Monday’s game, but if he plays he could be the batter most likely to abuse Colon. The stacked batters all have solid recent Statcast data and are reasonably priced, and their positive RBBLs indicate that they could ready for a breakout:
The Rangers have the top non-Royals stack on FanDuel, which isn’t surprising because pitcher Ian Kennedy has also been susceptible to the long ball with a Colon-esque 1.90 HR/9 over the past 12 months. Texas owns a 4.9-run implied total, which is the third-highest mark on the slate:
Projected to lead off, Shin-Soo Choo stands out as one of the highest-rated batters in the slate with solid Statcast data, including a recent batted-ball distance of 246 feet, exit velocity of 95 mph and fly-ball and hard-hit rates of 42% and 45%. Historically, batters with comparable lineup spots, implied team totals and Statcast data have averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.57 with an impressive 23 Upside Rating.
Other Batters
Amazingly, Coors batters could have reduced ownership because of deGrom and also the juicy Royals-Rangers game. Trevor Story is probably the only hitter I’d dare to take against deGrom. His splits against right-handed pitching are pretty rough, but he has arguably the slate’s best Statcast data with a recent batted-ball distance of 252 feet, exit velocity of 95 mph and hard-hit rate of 61%. The Mets are interesting, but their best Statcast batters — Devin Mesoraco and Brandon Nimmo — are in the bottom half of the lineup and on the wrong side of their batting splits. No. 3 hitter Todd Frazier is an option with his .342 wOBA and .306 ISO as well as his 53% hard-hit rate.
The Indians are implied for a slate-high 5.4 runs against White Sox pitcher Dylan Covey and his bottom-five 1.44 WHIP. Unsurprisingly, Cleveland looks ready to go off with an impressive .342 wOBA against righties:
Jose Ramirez is an elite option: He has excellent recent Statcast data with an average distance of 257 feet, exit velocity of 96 miles per hour and hard-hit rate of 50%, smashing his 12-month averages with differentials of +42 feet, +5 mph and +15 percentage points. Edwin Encarnacion has comparable numbers in the cleanup spot, and he is a much better value on FanDuel with a 95% Bargain Rating.
Eric Thames has gone off with an absurd 304-foot distance, 105-mph exit velocity and 71% hard-hit rate since returning from the disabled list, and he hit two home runs in his last outing. Phew. He’s affordable on FanDuel with a 99% Bargain Rating.
Jose Martinez is similar to Thames with his upside, and he has the larger recent sample of Statcast data at 10 games:
The Cardinals are implied for only 4.2 runs against Pivetta and the Phillies, but batters comparable to Martinez in lineup spot as well as Vegas and Statcast data have still performed well above salary-based expectations with a +2.50 Plus/Minus.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Shin-Soo Choo
Photo credit: Jerome Miron-USA Today Sports
