The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday features a split slate: There’s a 10-game DraftKings and nine-game FanDuel early slate at 1:05 p.m. ET and a four-game main slate at 4:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Today’s slates feature a limited number of stud pitchers, with only four possessing salaries of at least $8,800 on FanDuel:
Aaron Nola may not have the name recognition of other top pitchers, but he’s performed as well as anyone to begin the season. He’s posted a 2.27 ERA through his first 14 starts and trails only Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom in WAR among NL starters (per Fangraphs). He’s been particularly effective over his past 10 starts, posting an average Plus/Minus of +13.72 on FanDuel:
Nola also has awesome Statcast data over his past two starts with a 172-foot batted-ball distance and 70% ground-ball rate. Historically, pitchers with comparable salaries and Statcast data have been awesome values on FanDuel (per the Trends tool):
Nola has the potential to miss a lot of bats today against the Milwaukee Brewers. Their projected lineup has posted a strikeout rate of 28.4% against right-handers over the past 12 months, giving Nola a slate-high K Prediction of 8.7. He’s the easy top choice on FanDuel, where he leads all pitchers with a Bargain Rating of 99%.
Dylan Bundy has an elite matchup vs. the Miami Marlins, resulting in strong marks in both moneyline odds (-173) and K Prediction (6.8). He also enters this contest in awesome recent form, owning a distance differential of -33 feet and hard-hit differential of -16 percentage points over his past two starts. Pitchers with comparable marks in both categories have been nice values on DraftKings:
He’s $2,300 cheaper than Nola on DraftKings, which makes him an intriguing pivot.
Clay Buchholz is the only stud available on the afternoon slate, but it’s hard to make a case for him at his current salary vs. the New York Mets. They’ve fared much better against right-handers than left-handers this season and are implied for 4.3 runs. Buchholz also enters this contest after getting roughed up in his past two outings, allowing opponents to compile a 238-foot average batted-ball distance and 45% hard-hit rate.
Lance McCullers owns the top Vegas data today, leading all pitchers with an opponent implied run total of 3.6 and moneyline odds of -227. He faces the Kansas City Royals, who are averaging the third-fewest runs per game this year and fifth-lowest wOBA against right-handed pitchers at .294. However, they have been one of the tougher teams to strikeout: Their projected lineup owns a splits-adjusted K rate of just 20.3% over the past 12 months. McCullers is a relatively safe option for cash games, but he could be overowned in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Values
Blaine Hardy has made only six starts for the Tigers this season but has compiled a solid 3.55 ERA through his first 38.0 innings. He’s been extremely impressive with his Statcast profile over his past two starts, allowing an average distance of 171 feet, exit velocity of 84 miles per hour and hard-hit rate of just 24%. The one area where he has struggled is his strikeout ability, but he has more upside that usual today vs. the Chicago White Sox, whose projected lineup has posted a strikeout rate of 28.5% against left-handers over the past 12 months, giving Hardy a K Prediction of 6.3. He’s affordable at just $6,100 on FanDuel, and pitchers with comparable salaries, K Predictions and recent Statcast data have provided decent value at low ownership:
CC Sabathia gets to take on the Tampa Bay Rays, who have been one of the most strikeout-prone teams against left-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. Sabathia also benefits from pitching for an offensive juggernaut in the New York Yankees, which will likely make Sabathia one of the largest favorites on today’s slate.
Julio Teheran has appeal against the San Deigo Padres, whose projected lineup has struggled to a .279 wOBA and 27.7% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months. In fact, the Padres have rewarded right-handers with a higher Plus/Minus than any other team over the past five seasons:
Teheran was roughed up by the Padres in his last outing, resulting in a Plus/Minus of -16.98 on DraftKings, but his Statcast data suggests he was a bit unlucky. He’s posted negative differentials in both distance and exit velocity over his past two starts, resulting in a Recent Batted Ball Luck (RBBL) of +36. He could be due for some progression against the Padres.
Fastballs
Andrew Heaney: He leads all pitchers on the afternoon slate with a K Prediction of 7.4 against the Oakland Athletics. He’s also posted a distance differential of -18 feet over his past two starts, which gives him arguably more upside than any other pitcher on the slate.
Eduardo Rodriguez: He has a substantially tougher matchup than Heaney against the Seattle Mariners, but he leads all pitchers on the afternoon slate with an opponent implied team total of 3.8 runs. He also enters this contest in good recent form, holding opponents to an average exit velocity of just 87 miles per hour and hard-hit rate of 18% over his past two starts.
Chase Anderson: He’s a decent pitcher, owning a 1.10 WHIP over the past 12 months, but his fantasy upside is typically capped by his subpar K/9 of 7.44. That might not be a huge concern vs. the Phillies, who have posted the highest strikeout rate in the league against right-handed pitchers. He’s a slight underdog against Nola but has appeal for GPPs.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. On the main slate, the top four-man FanDuel stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Pittsburgh Pirates:
The Pirates’ implied team total of 4.8 runs ranks just fifth on the main slate, but they do have an exploitable matchup vs. Reds right-hander Anthony DeSclafani. He’s posted a dreadful 1.90 WHIP over the past 12 months and a slate-worst 95-mph exit velocity and 54% hard-hit rate over his past two starts. The Pirates also enter today’s contest in excellent recent form, with each of the stacked batters owning a distance differential of at least +14 feet over the past 15 days:
The above stack also costs just $12,100 on FanDuel, which will leave you with lots of flexibility for your remaining roster spots.
On the afternoon slate, the top five-man DraftKings stack belongs to the New York Mets:
Facing the aforementioned Buchholz, the Mets have been dreadful recently but are beginning to show signs of life. Yesterday they scored five runs against Patrick Corbin — one of the top left-handers in the National League — and the stacked batters all own solid Statcast marks over the past 15 days. Brandon Nimmo has become the centerpiece of their offense, owning a .443 wOBA against right-handers this season. Their offense has also received a shot in the arm from first baseman Dominic Smith, who has posted a 77% hard-hit rate over his first five games.
Other Batters
Alex Bregman leads all players with 13 Pro Trends on DraftKings and continues to smoke the baseball. He’s posted an average distance of 251 feet, exit velocity of 95 miles per hour and hard-hit rate of 50%, all of which represent sizable increases when compared to his 12-month averages. He’s taking on Royals right-hander Brad Keller, who will be making just his fourth start at the big-league level. The Astros’ implied team total of 5.5 runs is the top mark on the slate.
Nick Castellanos busted out of his slump in a big way on Saturday, slugging two home runs against White Sox right-hander Lucas Giolito. He has another exploitable matchup today vs. James Shields, who has allowed a HR/9 of 1.65 over the past 12 months and an average distance of 247 feet over his past three starts. Castellanos is extremely appealing on FanDuel, where he has a Bargain Rating of 97%.
The Rockies-Rangers game is available only on the DraftKings main slate but should be popular given the over/under of 10.0 runs. One intriguing batter from that game is Joey Gallo. He’s posted an absurd 76% hard-hit rate and 98-mph exit velocity over his past 10 games, but his overall numbers have been dragged down by an unusually high ground-ball rate of 41%. If he can start elevating the ball, he has the potential for multiple home runs.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Dominic Smith
Photo credit: John Geliebter-USA Today Sports
