The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Max Scherzer: Pitcher, Nationals
On the early slate, Scherzer is sporting an absurd 10.7 K Prediction against a Blue Jays team that is implied for the slate’s lowest implied run total (3.3). Moreover, the Nationals also check in as the slate’s highest favorite (-212 moneyline odds). Historically, pitchers with comparable salaries, K Predictions and Vegas data have been incredibly reliable on FanDuel (per our Trends tool):
Aside from the favorable Vegas data, Scherzer has been in excellent batted-ball form over his past two starts, boasting a 15-day/12-month distance differential of -13 feet and exit velocity differential of -2 mph. Scherzer’s floor and ceiling are difficult to match considering he’s averaging a +16.35 FanDuel Plus/Minus with 90% Consistency over his past 10 starts.
Paul Goldschmidt: First Baseman, Diamondbacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top main-slate four-man FanDuel stack in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Diamondbacks, who are implied for 4.5 runs:
Goldschmidt is hard to overlook on a four-game main slate, especially since he’s on an absurd hot streak right now, averaging a +11.84 FanDuel Plus/Minus with 70% Consistency over his past 10 games. Even more ridiculous is Goldschmidt’s batted-ball data over the past 15 days: He owns a ludicrous average distance of 270 feet, an exit velocity of 100 mph and a hard-hit rate of 66%. Hitters with comparable batted-ball data have historically averaged a +2.55 FanDuel Plus/Minus.
Danny Valencia: Third Baseman, Orioles
Looking at our Vegas Dashboard for the early slate, the Orioles are implied for a solid 4.9 runs, and they own the second-best Team Value Rating on DraftKings:
With the likelihood of having to roster the expensive Scherzer, cheap bats will need to come into play. The Orioles have a great matchup against Wei-Yin Chen, who owns a woeful 1.53 WHIP and 1.64 HR/9 over the past 12 months. Additionally, Chen is allowing an abundance of hard contact over his past two starts, with a 229-foot average distance, 96-mph exit velocity and 58% hard-hit rate.
Meanwhile, Valencia has a 233-foot average distance, 92-mph exit velocity and 35% hard-hit rate over his past nine games. He could also be due for some progression, as his +40 Recent Batted Ball Luck (RBBL) score suggest he’s been unlucky of late. This could be a solid bounce-back spot for Valencia, who has hit lefties to the tune of a .350 weighted on-base average (wOBA) and .203 isolated power (ISO) over the past year.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Paul Goldschmidt
Photo credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
