Baseball is back! Check back here throughout the day for updated blurbs as teams confirm their lineup. We’ll keep you updated on some of the day’s highest-impact trends by utilizing our Models and Vegas dashboard. Projected and confirmed lineups for every game can be found on our MLB Daily Lineups page.
Rays (+154) at Yankees (-167) — 7:05 PM EST
Yankees in: Gary Sanchez
Gary Sanchez will return to the lineup and bat fourth for a Yankees team presently implied to score a slate-high 4.9 runs. Overall, Giancarlo Stanton, Sanchez, Gleyber Torres, and Tyler Austin form the main slate’s highest-rated four-man stack in combined ISO. The Yankees also boast a slate-high .350 wOBA vs. left-handed pitchers over the past 12 months, so it’s not surprising each of their top-five batters in the order have a projected ownership rate of at least 13 percent on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Southpaw Blake Snell will need to continue to limit big hits, as he ranks among the main slate’s top-three pitchers in average batted ball distance, exit velocity, and hard-hit rate allowed over the past 15 days. Still, both offenses could benefit from estimated wind gusts of 13 miles per hour blowing out to right field, which helps give the Rays-Yankees’ matchup the main slate’s second-most hitter-friendly Weather Rating.
Padres (+136) at Braves (-148) — 7:35 PM EST
Padres in: Jose Pirela, Hunter Renfroe
Padres out: Christian Villanueva, Travis Jankowski
The Padres will roll with Jose Pirela, Cory Spangenberg, and Eric Hosmer at the top of the order for their matchup against the Braves. Christian Villanueva and Travis Jankowski will each receive routine days off. The Padres have their hands full against Anibal Sanchez, who is the highest-rated pitcher on both DraftKings and FanDuel in the Bales Model. Sanchez ranks among the slate’s top-two pitchers in average batted ball distance, exit velocity, and hard-hit rate allowed over the past 15 days, although he joins Matt Koch and Jason Vargas as the slate’s only pitchers that have allowed at least 1.5 home runs per nine innings pitched over the past calendar year. He carries a solid 6.2 K Prediction and is set up well against a Padres lineup that has combined to strike out every .272 at bats over the past 12 months while posting a pedestrian .296 wOBA – the second-lowest mark in Thursday’s main slate. Exposure to Sanchez should be focused on DraftKings, where his $5,500 price tag comes with a 72 percent Bargain rating and a slate-high +7.6 Projected Plus/Minus.
