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Thursday features a split-slate: There’s a four-game early slate at 12:10 p.m. ET on FanDuel and 1:05 p.m. ET on DraftKings as well as a four-game main slate at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Today’s slates are light on stud pitchers, with only two possessing salaries above $8,600 on DraftKings:
Justin Verlander is unfortunately unavailable on the early FanDuel slate but should be the heavy chalk on DraftKings. He’s been arguably the best pitcher in baseball to begin the 2018 season, posting a 1.45 ERA and 10.90 K/9 through his first 93.1 innings. He leads all AL pitchers in wins above replacement on FanGraphs and trails only Corey Kluber on Baseball Reference.
Unsurprisingly, he leads all pitchers on today’s slate in opponent implied run total (3.3), moneyline odds (-170), and K Prediction (7.4). Historically, pitchers with comparable marks in all three categories have been nice options on DraftKings (per our Trends tool):
Verlander has previously matched this trend three times this season and averaged 30.73 DraftKings points with a +9.76 Plus/Minus and Consistency Rating of 100%.
The one concern with Verlander is his recent Statcast data. He’s allowed an average batted-ball distance of 223 feet, exit velocity of 92 miles per hour and hard-hit rate of 44% over his past two starts, all of which represent increases when compared to his 12-month averages. His Recent Batted Ball Luck of -86 is a bit troubling, even for a pitcher of Verlander’s caliber.
Mike Clevinger is the other top option available, and he has a fantastic matchup vs. the Chicago White Sox. Their projected lineup owns a .304 wOBA and 26.7% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months, and their average of 3.86 runs per game is the fifth-lowest mark to start the season.
With that in mind, it’s a bit surprising that the White Sox are implied for 4.2 runs. That’s still the third-lowest mark on the main FanDuel slate, but it’s higher than expected against a pitcher with Clevinger’s salary. He does make up for some of the Vegas concerns with a K Prediction of 7.3, trailing only Verlander among today’s pitchers. He has upside, but Clevinger also carries risk.
Values
There are a couple of intriguing value options today. The first is Anibal Sanchez, who is priced at just $5,500 on DraftKings. He has an elite matchup vs. the San Diego Padres, whose projected lineup has posted a splits-adjusted .294 wOBA and 26.5% strikeout rate over the past 12 months. Their implied team total of 4.0 runs is tied for the second-lowest mark on the main slate. Sanchez also has solid -135 moneyline odds and a K Prediction of 6.3, and pitchers with comparable salaries and marks in all three categories have been reliable options:
Sanchez enters today’s contest in strong recent batted-ball form. He’s allowed an average distance of just 193 feet over his past two starts, which represents a differential of -20 feet when compared to his 12-month average. Factoring a comparable distance differential into the above trend increases the average Plus/Minus to +3.06.
The second value option is Steven Matz, who got off to a rough start this season but has bounced back. He’s posted an ERA of 2.68 over his past seven starts despite facing some of the best offenses in baseball. His Statcast data over that time has been excellent, resulting in a hard-hit rate of just 28.2% and ground-ball rate of 52.9%.
Matz doesn’t typically have much strikeout ability, but he has more upside than usual against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Their projected lineup has a strikeout rate of 28.4% against left-handers over the past 12 months, giving Matz a K Prediction of 6.5. Matz is also afforded the luxury of facing the Diamondbacks in Arizona, where the humidor-controlled Chase Field has been friendlier to pitchers, who have averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.80 there this season. Matz does have one of the highest opponent implied team totals on the slate, so he’s likely best suited for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
UPDATE: Matz’s scheduled start has been pushed back due to a reported blister on the middle finger of his pitching hand. Jason Vargas is starting in his place. A lefty, Vargas still has the splits-adjusted benefits of facing the Diamondbacks that Matz had.
Fastballs
Domingo German: He leads all pitchers on the main slate in both opponent implied run total (3.8) and moneyline odds (-160) and has a nice matchup vs. the Tampa Bay Rays. All that’s holding German back is the lackluster Statcast data from his past two starts, resulting in positive differentials in distance, exit velocity and hard-hit rate. He’ll likely be the highest-owned pitcher on the slate.
Carlos Rodon: He’s an underdog against Clevinger and the Indians, who are implied for a slate-high 4.9 runs, but Rodon does provide a cheap combination of strikeout upside and recent batted-ball data. He’s posted a K/9 of 10.38 over the past 12 months, and in his only start this year he recorded a distance differential of -16 feet.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. On the early slate, the top five-man DraftKings stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies:
Their implied team total of 4.5 runs is tied for second on the slate, and the above stack is also extremely affordable at just $17,900 total. Only Rhys Hopkins costs more than $4,000 on DraftKings, and he just barely cracks that threshold at $4,100. They’re taking on Rockies right-hander German Marquez, which puts all five of the stacked batters on the positive side of their batting splits:
On the main slate, the top four-man FanDuel stack belongs to the New York Mets:
To say that the Mets offense has been slumping recently is an understatement. They made unfortunate history in their most recent home stand:
The Mets batted .147 on their nine-game homestand that ended Sunday. Since 1900, that was the lowest batting average by any major-league team on a homestand of seven or more games (of which there were more than 13,000).#Mets at #Braves
now on @SNYtv— Elias Sports Bureau (@EliasSports) June 12, 2018
Perhaps they can change their fortunes in Arizona against Diamondbacks right-hander Matt Koch, who has allowed a HR/9 of 1.82 over the past 12 months. Koch has also been much worse at home this season, allowing batters to compile a .352 wOBA over 41.2 innings pitched.
The stacked batters for the Mets enter the contest in good Statcast form, with each owning a positive distance differential over the past 15 days. Brandon Nimmo in particular stands out given his ridiculous .452 wOBA against right-handers in 2018.
Other Batters
Nick Ahmed is expected to occupy the second spot in the lineup for the Diamondbacks, which makes him an appealing target against Vargas. He’s averaged a .369 wOBA and .274 ISO against left-handers over the past 12 months and put together an excellent Statcast profile over his past nine games with a 234-foot distance, 96-mph exit velocity and 53% hard-hit rate. He’s extremely affordable at just $2,800 on FanDuel.
If you’re looking for leverage off German on the main slate, consider Jake Bauers. He has destroyed right-handed pitching over the past year, resulting in a .416 wOBA and .417 ISO, and is slated to bat second for the Rays. He’s projected for just 5% to 8% ownership on DraftKings, which is appealing on a short slate.
The Indians will likely be a popular early slate team given their implied team total of 4.9 runs. Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Ramirez both have a splits advantage against the lefty Rodon, and each has posted a distance differential of at least +35 feet over the past 15 days. They’re expensive at $4,900 and $5,300, but they have big upside.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Brandon Nimmo
Photo credit: Andy Marlin-USA TODAY Sports
