This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s slate.
Chris Sale: Pitcher, Red Sox
Paying all the way up for Sale could be the path of least resistance on the early slate, and he is much more affordable on the early FanDuel slate with his 98% Bargain Rating. The opposing Orioles are implied for 4.0 runs, which is more than you would like to see given Sale’s salary, but his K/9 of 12.94 is the top mark among all of today’s pitchers. Unsurprisingly, he sports a slate-leading 8.5 K Prediction. Historically, pitchers with comparably average Vegas data and high K Predictions have still performed well above their salary-based expectations on FanDuel (per the Trends tool):
Before you check in on Sale’s Statcast data, make sure you have an extra pair of pants ready. He boasts an absurd recent batted-ball distance of 178 feet, exit velocity of 84 miles per hour and hard-hit rate of 16%. Those numbers trounce his 12-month averages, giving him differentials of -26 feet, -4 mph and -11 percentage points. Sale is absolutely dealing lately, his long-term 0.986 WHIP inspires a ton of confidence, and the Marlins have a below averages .319 wOBA against left-handed pitching.
Kenta Maeda: Pitcher, Dodgers
Maeda was pulled from his last start (5/29) due to a hip strain, but he’s reportedly had a few bullpen sessions with no issues. It’s notable that in his last outing the sharps rostered him at a significantly higher rate than the low-stakes players, when he was $1,400 more expensive on DraftKings than he is now:
Maeda’s 8.1 K Prediction is the second-highest main-slate mark, and he’s facing a projected Rangers lineup with an implied total of only 3.3 runs and top-two 29.0% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers. In the game before his injury-shortened outing, Maeda threw an absolute gem, striking out 12 batters without allowing a run over 6.1 innings pitched. The Statcast data from his prior two starts is also impressive with a 199-foot distance, 86-mph exit velocity and 18% hard-hit rate, all of which are lower than his 12-month averages.
Jose Martinez: First Baseman, Cardinals
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top five-man DraftKings stack in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Cardinals, who are implied for a slate-high 5.1 runs:
The Cardinals face struggling Padres lefty Eric Lauer, who owns a bottom-two 2.109 WHIP and 1.641 HR/9 over the past 12 months.
Projected to bat third, Jose Martinez stands out as one of the highest-rated batters in the main slate with solid Statcast data, and he’s also on the positive side of his splits with an elite .498 wOBA and .368 ISO against lefties over the past 12 months. Historically, hitters with similar Vegas data, lineup spots and peripheral stats have averaged a +1.53 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Kenta Maeda
Photo credit: Richard Mackson-USA Today Sports
