Baseball is back! Check back here throughout the day for updated blurbs as teams confirm their lineup. We’ll keep you updated on some of the day’s highest-impact trends by utilizing our Models and Vegas dashboard. Projected and confirmed lineups for every game can be found on our MLB Daily Lineups page.
Astros (-138) at Athletics (+127) — 10:05 PM EST
Astros in: Carlos Correa (right side discomfort)
Carlos Correa will return to the lineup for the first time since June 6 after dealing with discomfort in his right side. He’ll bat fourth for an Astros lineup currently implied to score 4.6 runs. Exposure to Correa should be focused on FanDuel, where his $2,700 price tag comes with a 99 percent Bargain Rating and a +0.53 Projected Plus/Minus. Correa and the Astros are set up well against righty Daniel Mengden, who is the lowest-rated pitcher in the Bales Model on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Mengden allowed four home runs in his last start and will have his hands full with an Astros lineup that has combined to post a .345 wOBA vs. right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months – the third-best mark in Tuesday’s main slate.
Pirates (+133) at Diamondbacks (-144) — 9:40 PM EST
Pirates in: Josh Harrison (left shoulder blade discomfort)
Pirates out: Francisco Cervelli (jaw, concussion protocol)
Francisco Cervelli will miss his third consecutive game due to a jaw injury and concussion. Josh Harrison will return to the lineup Tuesday after missing Monday’s game due to discomfort in his left shoulder blade. Harrison will lead off for a Pirates lineup presently implied to score just 3.9 runs against the Diamondbacks, who will roll with righty Clay Buchholz. Buchholz has been fantastic this season, allowing two or fewer runs in all four of his starts. Overall, Buchholz has posted a +7.6 Plus/Minus and a 100 percent Consistency Rating on DraftKings this season. Still, Buchholz will need to do a better job keeping the ball on the ground, as he ranks among the main slate’s bottom-five pitchers average batted ball distance and fly-ball rate allowed over the past 12 months.
Rangers (+165) at Dodgers (-180) — 10:05 PM EST
Dodgers in: Justin Turner (sore left wrist)
Justin Turner has missed four consecutive games with a sore left wrist, but he’ll bat third Tuesday for a Dodgers lineup presently implied to score 4.7 runs. Still, Turner has historically struggled against right-handed pitchers, posting wOBA and ISO differentials of -.183 and -.227, respectively, against righties over the past 12 months. Bartolo Colon has mixed in solid showings with some disasters, as he’s allowed two or fewer runs in three of his last six starts, but six runs in two of his last six starts. Colon has struggled to limit hard hits recently, allowing slate-high marks in average exit velocity and hard-hit rate allowed over the past 15 days. Both pitchers will have to deal with estimated wind gusts of five miles per hour blowing out to center field.
Nationals (+156) at Yankees (-170) — 7:05 PM EST
Nationals in: Daniel Murphy (right knee surgery)
Daniel Murphy will make his 2018 debut and bat fifth for a Nationals lineup currently implied to score just 3.9 runs against the Yankees. Still, the Nationals have combined to post a slate-high .350 wOBA vs. left-handed pitchers over the past 12 months and could benefit from estimated wind gusts of 11 miles per hour blowing out to left field. Murphy specifically has a tough matchup against lefty CC Sabathia, as he’s posted negative ISO and wOBA splits vs. southpaws over the past calendar year. Sabathia will look to continue to limit big hits, as he’s allowed slate-low marks in average batted ball distance, exit velocity, and hard-hit rate over the past 12 months. The Nationals-Yankees’ matchup currently boasts the main slate’s second-most pitcher-friendly Weather Rating.
Yankees in: Austin Romine
Yankees out: Gary Sanchez
Gary Sanchez will receive a day off as his struggles at the plate continue, and manager Aaron Boone said Sanchez will probably rest Wednesday as well. Austin Romine will catch and bat eighth for a Yankees lineup presently implied to score a solid 5.2 runs. They boast power throughout the lineup, as Aaron Judge, Greg Bird, Giancarlo Stanton, and Gleyber Torres form the main slate’s fourth-highest rated four-man stack in combined ISO. Overall, each of Brett Gardner, Judge, Didi Gregorius, and Neil Walker have posted positive wOBA and ISO splits vs. right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. Gardner in particular is in play on FanDuel where his $3,100 price tag comes with an 86 percent Bargain Rating and a +0.71 Projected Plus/Minus. Tanner Roark will have his hands full with a Yankees lineup that has combined to post a .349 wOBA vs. right-handed pitchers over the past calendar year.
Red Sox (-161) at Orioles (+148) — 7:05 PM EST
Red Sox in: Eduardo Nunez
Red Sox out: Mookie Betts
Mookie Betts will receive a day off after playing 11 innings during the team’s win over the Orioles Monday night. The Red Sox will roll with Eduardo Nunez, Andrew Benintendi, and J.D. Martinez at the top of the order for their matchup against the Orioles. Only Christian Vazquez has posted a negative ISO split vs. right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months among Red Sox batters, and they’ve combined to post a .329 wOBA – the seventh-highest mark in Tuesday’s main slate. David Hess will need to do a better job limiting hard hits in the air, as he ranks among the main slate’s bottom-six pitchers in average batted ball distance, fly-ball rate, and home runs allowed per nine innings over the past calendar year. Both offenses could benefit from estimated wind gusts of nine miles per hour blowing out to left field.
Orioles in: Manny Machado (illness)
Manny Machado is back in the lineup and batting third after missing Wednesday’s game with an illness. The Orioles are presently implied to score just four runs, and they’ll have their hands full with lefty Eduardo Rodriguez. Overall, Rodriguez ranks among the main slate’s top-two pitchers in average exit velocity and hard-hit rate allowed over the past 15 days. He’s pitched great all season, posting a +6.88 Plus/Minus and 73 percent Consistency Rating on FanDuel. Exposure to Rodriguez should continue to be focused on FanDuel, where his $8,500 price tag comes with a 98 percent Bargain Rating and a +4.05 Projected Plus/Minus. The only downside for Rodriguez is his relatively mild strikeout ceiling, as he boasts a mediocre 5.6 K Prediction and has struck out more than eight batters just once in 12 starts this season.
Rockies (+125) at Phillies (-135) — 7:05 PM EST
Rockies in: Carlos Gonzalez (left rib)
Carlos Gonzalez will return to the lineup and bat cleanup Tuesday after missing back-to-back games with a left rib injury. The Rockies are currently implied to score a slate-low 3.3 runs against the Phillies and Aaron Nola, who has averaged 10.0 K/9 and a 1.4 WHIP over the past 12 months. Nola has been dominant as of late, posting a +11.3 Plus/Minus with a 70 percent Consistency Rating on FanDuel over his past 10 starts. He’s again in play on FanDuel with a 98 percent Bargain Rating to go with his $9,500 price tag. Nola joins Rockies starter Jon Gray as the main slate’s only pitchers with a K Prediction above eight. The Rockies and Phillies lineups rank second and third, respectively, in combined strike outs per at bat over the past calendar year. While forecasts currently call for estimated wind gusts of seven miles per hour blowing out to center field, the Rockies-Phillies’ matchup boasts the main slate’s most pitcher-friendly Weather Rating.
Cubs (+104) at Brewers (-113) — 8:10 PM EST
Brewers in: Eric Thames, Lorenzo Cain (left knee)
Eric Thames is back in the lineup after being activated off the disabled list Monday, as is Lorenzo Cain, who didn’t play Monday due to a left knee injury. Thames and Cain will bat first and third, respectively, for a Brewers lineup presently implied to score a very respectable 4.9 runs. The Brewers are particularly in play on FanDuel, where six of their eight batters possess Bargain Rating of at least 70 percent. Still, they’ll have their hands full with righty Tyler Chatwood, who ranks among the main slate’s top-two pitchers in average batted ball distance, exit velocity, and hard-hit rate allowed over the past 15 days. Chatwood carries projected ownership rates of 2-4 percent or lower across the industry and offers strikeout upside against a Brewers lineup that has combined to strike out every .284 at bats over the past calendar year – the fourth-highest mark in Tuesday’s main slate.
Indians (-137) at White Sox (+126) — 8:10 PM EST
Indians in: Edwin Encarnacion (right ankle), Jason Kipnis (stiff neck)
Edwin Encarnacion and Jason Kipnis will each return from injury and bat fourth and sixth, respectively, for an Indians lineup currently implied to score 5.2 runs. The Indians are particularly in play on DraftKings, where they boast the main slate’s fourth-highest Team Value Rating. Overall, Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley, Jose Ramirez, Encarnacion, and Yan Gomes form the main slate’s sixth-highest rated five-man stack on DraftKings in the Bales Model. Lindor in particular is set up well against righty James Shields, as he’s posted a .347 wOBA and a .234 ISO vs. right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. Lindor’s $5,000 price tag on DraftKings comes with a strong 75 percent Bargain Rating and seven Pro Trends. Shields has allowed six home runs in his last two starts.
