This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s slate.
Madison Bumgarner: Pitcher, Giants
Bumgarner is making only his second start of the season, and he’s looking to prove that he’s still one of the top pitchers in the game. He made only 17 starts in an injury-shortened 2017 and posted unusually subpar marks (for him) in both ERA (3.32) and K/9 (8.19). He was also unimpressive in his first 2018 start, recording just three strikeouts while allowing eight hits over six innings. Even so, Bumgarner is getting a lot of Vegas respect: His opponent implied total of 3.2 runs leads all pitchers today, and his moneyline odds of -180 rank third. Historically, pitchers with comparable marks in both categories have been nice FanDuel values (per our Trends tool):
The Statcast data from his first start was mixed. He allowed an average batted-ball distance of just 165 feet, thanks mostly to an elite ground-ball rate of 68%. However, batters did make hard contact against Bumgarner at a 50% rate, which is tied for the second-worst recent mark on the slate. Given that Bumgarner has yet to show the strikeout potential that made him a premier starter in the past, his Statcast profile is going to be extremely important moving forward. Luckily, today he faces the Marlins, whose projected lineup has posted an anemic .280 against left-handed pitchers over the past 12 months.
Jose Ramirez: Third Base, Indians
The Indians are popping today in our MLB Models. Not only do eight of their nine projected starters own positive 15-day distance differentials, but their implied total of 5.4 runs is first on today’s slate by a significant margin:
They’re taking on White Sox right-hander Lucas Giolito, who has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball in 2018. He’s posted an ERA of 7.08 through his first 61 innings and actually walked more batters (39) than he’s struck out (31). He’s been particularly ineffective against left-handed batters, allowing a .409 wOBA and 1.98 WHIP to them, which bodes well for Ramirez. The switch hitter has fared much better as a lefty, owning a .424 wOBA and .328 ISO over the past 12 months, and he’s also posted an elite distance differential of +41 feet over the past 15 days. He leads all of today’s batters in median, ceiling, and floor projections and will likely be one of the highest owned players on the slate.
Matt Carpenter: Second Base, Cardinals
Cheap leadoff hitters are always appealing for daily fantasy baseball, and one player who fits that description is Carpenter. He’s currently priced at just $3,300 on DraftKings and slated to bat first for the Cardinals:
His DraftKings salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 96%, which is the top mark among all position players today. Facing Padres right-hander Jordan Lyles, Carpenter boasts a .378 wOBA and .232 ISO against righties over the past 12 months. He enters today’s contest in good recent form, averaging a 249-foot distance, 96-mph exit velocity, and 50% hard-hit rate over the past 15 days. All of those numbers represent increases when compared to his 12-month averages, and leadoff hitters with similar Bargain Ratings and recent Statcast data have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.02 and a Consistency Rating of 63.6%. The Cardinals trail only the Indians on today’s slate with an implied total of 4.7 runs.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more baseball coverage!
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Jose Ramirez
Photo credit: Rick Osentoski-USA Today Sports
