This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s slate.
Luis Severino: Pitcher, Yankees
Today’s slate is loaded with pitching talent, but Severino has arguably the best matchup of the bunch. He’s taking on the New York Mets, whose offense has averaged an anemic 1.0 runs per game over their last six contests. Severino’s Vegas data is impressive, as he owns an opponent implied total of 2.8 runs and moneyline odds of -224. Historically, pitchers with comparable marks in both categories have been strong options on FanDuel (per the Trends tool):
Severino also has big strikeout upside against the Mets, whose projected lineup has posted a splits-adjusted K rate of 25.3% over the past 12 months. Masahiro Tanaka and Domingo German struck out a combined 17 batters over 11 innings in the first two games of this series, and Severino has posted a K/9 of 11.07 over the past year.
Nick Ahmed: Shortstop, Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks have averaged 10.5 runs per game over their past two contests at Coors Field, and their implied team total of 5.5 runs ranks third on today’s slate. Rostering Ahmed could be a cheap way to get exposure to that contest, and he’s currently slated to bat second:
Historically, batters with comparable salaries and lineup spots have averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.11 and an Upside Rating of 23% on DraftKings. Ahmed is also on the positive side of his batting splits against Rockies left-hander Kyle Freeland, owning a .373 wOBA and .290 ISO against southpaws over the past year, and he has strong Statcast differentials over the past half-month.
Jose Altuve: Second Base, Astros
Coors Field will likely garner most of the attention on today’s slate, which could make the Astros an intriguing team to stack at reduced ownership. Their implied total of 6.2 runs trails only the Rockies’ mark on today’s slate:
They have an outstanding matchup against Rangers left-hander Matt Moore, who owns a dreadful 7.47 ERA to start the season. The Astros are collectively in good form as four of their top seven batters own positive distance differentials over the past 15 days. That includes Altuve, who has also posted a hard-hit rate of 52% over the same time. Additionally, he has the ability to do damage with his legs: His average of 0.17 steals per game ranks eighth today.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more baseball coverage!
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Luis Severino
Photo credit: Thomas Shea-USA Today Sports
