The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features a split slate. DraftKings and FanDuel have respective five- and three-game early slates at 1:05 p.m. ET and a 10-game main slate at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
There are four pitchers on FanDuel priced at $9,000 or above:
There is currently no total for the Phillies-Cubs game, but at the time of writing the Phillies are +118 moneyline underdogs. Aaron Nola owns a solid 7.3 K Prediction against a projected Cubs lineup with a 25.5% strikeout rate against righties over the past 12 months, but the Cubs also rank third in weighted runs created plus (wRC+) against right-handed pitching this season (FanGraphs). Additionally, Nola on the road warrants some caution, as he’s been a better option at home since 2015:
Carlos Carrasco is the early slate’s largest favorite by a large margin (-182 moneyline odds). On paper, his matchup isn’t great: The Brewers rank 15th in wRC+ against righties this season while sporting a low 22.2% strikeout rate and elite .391 wOBA against them over the past year. However, the Brewers are implied for just 3.6 runs, and pitchers with comparable Vegas data and K Predictions have historically been consistent (per our Trends tool):
Dylan Bundy has the third-highest salary even though he’s a +104 moneyline underdog facing a Mets team implied for 4.1 runs. While the Mets own a 26.6% strikeout rate and a wOBA of just .312 against righties over the past 12 months, they rank fifth in wRC+ against them this season. Additionally, Bundy has abominable Statcast data over the past 15 days with a 234-foot average distance, 94-mph exit velocity and 50% hard-hit rate.
Michael Foltynewicz has been excellent this season, averaging a +9.66 FanDuel Plus/Minus with 86% Consistency. There is no Vegas data for his matchup against the Padres, but the Braves will likely be sizeable favorites. Foltynewicz owns some of the best batted-ball data on the slate with a 175-foot average distance, 89-mph exit velocity and 27% hard-hit rate. Furthermore, the Padres have a projected lineup with an absurdly low .252 wOBA against righties over the past year, and they rank 29th in wRC+ against them this season.
Values
Eduardo Rodriguez costs just $8,100 on FanDuel against a projected Tigers lineup that possesses a 27.4% strikeout rate and low .280 wOBA against lefties over the past 12 months. Rodriguez has looked great of late, sporting a 198-foot average distance, 88-mph exit velocity, and 19% hard-hit rate. Moreover, the Red Sox are massive -208 moneyline favorites, and the Tigers are implied for just 3.7 runs. Pitchers with comparable salaries, K Predictions (6.1) and Vegas data have historically averaged a +2.24 FanDuel Plus/Minus.
Jake Odorizzi could be a viable SP2 on DraftKings for $7,200 against a projected White Sox lineup that owns a 29.6% strikeout rate and .296 wOBA against right-handed pitchers over the past year. The Twins are sizeable -175 moneyline favorites, and Chicago’s 3.9-run implied total isn’t alarming. Historically, pitchers with comparable salaries, K Predictions (6.5) and Vegas data have averaged a +2.02 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
Fastballs
Shohei Ohtani: The opposing Royals are implied for a slate-low 3.1 runs, and the Angels check in as the slate’s largest favorite (-235 moneyline odds). Further, Ohtani boasts the slate’s highest K Prediction (7.9) along with a 98% Bargain Rating on FanDuel. If Ohtani can generate strikeouts at a rate highest than this Royals team typically allows, he should have no problem cruising past his salary-based expectation. Pitchers with comparable K Predictions and Vegas data have historically averaged an outstanding +6.25 FanDuel Plus/Minus with 64% Consistency. Ohtani is likely the best pitching play on the board for the main slate.
Lance McCullers: The Astros are -191 moneyline favorites against the Mariners, who are implied for a paltry 3.4 runs. Overall, he has a difficult matchup, as the projected Mariners lineup owns a 21.6% strikeout rate and .332 wOBA against righties over the past 12 months, but McCullers should benefit from the presence of home plate umpire Paul Nauert, who has historically gifted pitchers an average of +2.1 FanDuel points above salary-based expectations.
Jack Flaherty: He has an elite matchup against a Marlins team that ranks 28th in wRC+ and has a minuscule .285 wOBA against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. The Marlins are implied for just 3.5 runs, and the Cardinals possess outstanding -196 moneyline odds. Flaherty costs $10,200 on DraftKings but only $7,800 on FanDuel. Pitchers with comparable FanDuel salaries, K Predictions (6.6) and Vegas data have historically averaged an excellent +3.35 Plus/Minus.
Jose Quintana: The Cubs are slight favorites (-128 moneyline odds), and Quintana is in a favorable spot with a 6.7 K Prediction against a projected Phillies lineup that has a 28.2% strikeout rate against left-handed pitchers over the past year. Moreover, Quintana is in solid recent form, allowing an average distance of just 198 feet and exit velocity of 86 mph.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. On the early slate, the top five-man DraftKings stack in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Mets, who are implied for 4.5 runs:
Orioles righty Dylan Bundy has been hit or miss this season, but over the past 15 days he owns an atrocious 234-foot average distance, 94-mph exit velocity and 50% hard-hit rate. Brandon Nimmo is projected to occupy the leadoff spot and has smashed righties over the past 12 months with a .417 wOBA and .230 isolated power (ISO). Furthermore, Nimmo is in excellent form with a 244-foot average distance, 94-mph exit velocity and 56% hard-hit rate. Nimmo possesses positive batted-ball differentials in all of those categories when compared to his 12-month averages.
The top four-man main-slate FanDuel stack in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the A’s, who are implied for an exceptional 5.4 runs:
The A’s will take on Rangers righty Bartolo Colon, who has an awful 1.96 HR/9 and 5.70 SO/9 over the past 12 months and 93-mph exit velocity and 51% hard-hit rate over the past 15 days. Matt Olson is on the positive side of his wOBA and ISO splits, boasting an elite .419 wOBA and .358 ISO against righties over the past year. Olson has been obliterating the baseball over the past 15 days, as evidenced by his 244-foot average distance, 99-mph exit velocity and 63% hard-hit rate. Historically, hitters with comparable recent batted-ball data have averaged a +1.44 FanDuel Plus/Minus.
Other Batters
Miguel Sano and the Twins are implied for 5.1 runs against White Sox lefty Hector Santiago. It’s an excellent spot for Sano, who owns a .343 wOBA and elite .231 ISO against lefties over the past year. Additionally, Sano is in great recent batted-ball form, posting a 35-foot distance differential, 4-mph exit velocity differential and 10-percentage points hard-hit differential when compared to his 12-month average. Hitters with comparable batted-ball differentials have historically averaged a +1.83 FanDuel Plus/Minus.
Brian Dozier is also in a sublime spot, boasting a .419 wOBA and .277 ISO against lefties over the past 12 months. Furthermore, Dozier is drawing plenty of hard contact over the past 15 days with his 94-mph exit velocity and 47% hard-hit rate.
The Indians are implied for the early slate’s highest run total (5.0) against Brewers pitcher Chris Anderson. Jose Ramirez possesses a 14-foot distance differential, and he’s drawing loads of hard contact over the past 15 days with a 93-mph exit velocity and 41% hard-hit rate. Moreover, the switch-hitting Ramirez owns elite numbers against righties over the past year with a .425 wOBA and .324 ISO. Teammate Francisco Lindor is in the same boat, possessing a .350 wOBA and .235 ISO.
Boston’s slate-best 5.5-run implied total is difficult to overlook on the main slate. J.D. Martinez possesses absurd numbers against lefties over the past 12 months, boasting a .461 wOBA and .325 ISO. Andrew Benintendi is on the negative side of his wOBA and ISO splits, but his recent batted-ball data looks great with his 253-foot average distance and 93-mph exit velocity.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Shohei Ohtani
Photo credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
