The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday offers a small four-game main slate at 7:10 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
On DraftKings, there are just two pitchers who cost $9,800 or more:
Neither high-priced option stands out as a phenomenal play, but of the two Julio Teheran has the better matchup. He faces a struggling Padres squad whose projected lineup has posted a strikeout rate of 28.3% and weighted on-base average (wOBA) of .271 against right-handers over the past 12 months.
That’s basically where the positives end for Teheran. Even with a strikeout-prone matchup, he has a brutal 5.8 K Prediction — but somehow that’s still a top-three mark on the slate. Teheran’s Vegas data also underwhelms: He’s just a -102 moneyline favorite, and he owns an opponent implied total of 3.8 runs. His Statcast data also leaves a lot to be desired with a 222-foot batted-ball distance, 94-mph exit velocity, and a 41% and 48% fly-ball and hard-hit rates. Historically, pitchers with comparably mediocre K Predictions, Vegas data, and Statcast numbers have been predictably terrible on DraftKings (per our Trends tool):
Zack Godley has a fantastic venue shift at AT&T Park, where he has a 92 Park Factor, but his matchup isn’t especially exploitable: The Giants rank ninth in wRC+ against righties this season and have a middling 3.8-run implied total. For a top-tier pitcher, Godley has terrible recent batted-ball data with a 224-foot average distance, 96-mph exit velocity, and pathetic 54% hard-hit rate. Historically, pitchers with comparable batted-ball metrics, K Predictions (6.5), and Vegas data have averaged a -1.85 DraftKings Plus/Minus. Given that none of the top pitchers have great peripheral stats, ownership may be relatively spread out in large-field tournaments.
Values
Clayton Richard takes on a Braves team that ranks fourth in wRC+ against righties this season, but he’s been a solid value lately, averaging 20.4 DraftKings points per game with an 80% Consistency Rating over the past month:
His poor 1.49 WHIP over the past year is concerning, but his recent Statcast data is fantastic with a 186-foot batted-ball distance, 89-mph exit velocity, and 26% hard-hit rate. While Richard offers salary relief, he doesn’t have much strikeout upside (5.4 K Prediction), as the projected Braves lineup owns a slate-low 20.5% strikeout rate against lefties over the past 12 months. It’s tough sledding at the position today, but at least the Braves are implied for a palatable 3.8 runs, and Richard has been by far the strongest fantasy option on the slate over the past month.
A desperation punt option could be Derek Holland, who costs $5,600 on DraftKings and $6,300 on FanDuel. The Giants are -104 moneyline favorites, and the Diamondbacks are implied for 3.8 runs. Their projected lineup has a juicy 28.8% strikeout rate and .279 wOBA against lefties over the past year, but Holland notably has the lowest SO/9 (7.45) and K Prediction (4.1) on the slate. However, Holland’s Statcast numbers are among the best on the slate with an incredibly low 199-foot distance, 18% fly-ball rate, and 29% hard-hit rate. Unfortunately, pitchers with comparable salaries, Vegas data, and Statcast numbers have historically averaged a -0.58 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
Fastballs
Domingo German: As unbelievable as it sounds, German is probably the top GPP option in the slate even though he has a below-average 1.43 WHIP. His 7.5 K Prediction and 11.49 SO/9 lead the slate. German has a +64 Recent Batted Ball Luck, which suggests that he’s pitched better than his short-term fantasy production indicates. He has some of the best Statcast data on the slate with a recent distance of 192 feet, exit velocity of 89 mph, and 32% hard-hit rate. Comparably unlucky pitchers with similar strikeout expectations and recent Statcast data have smashed value on DraftKings:
Danny Duffy: The cheapest pitcher on the slate may actually be in play for GPPs, priced at just $4,700 on DraftKings with a 98% Bargain Rating. He’s in decent form with a distance differential of -18 feet. His 8.60 SO/9 is top-three on the slate. He’s highlighted further in today’s Three Key MLB Players.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top five-man DraftKings stack in the Batted Ball Model belongs to the Angels, whose implied run total of 4.9 runs trails only that of the Yankees:
With a top-two .342 wOBA, the Angels have smashed left-handed pitching over the last year, and Duffy can be susceptible to the long ball with a 1.57 HR/9 over that time.
Given the dearth of high-salaried pitching options, Mike Trout will likely be popular in cash games, and he’s recently crushed the ball with an average distance of 241 feet, exit velocity of 96 mph, and 50% hard-hit rate. Justin Upton and Ian Kinsler will also be popular in Angels stacks and are on the plus sides of their batting splits:
One of the top four-man FanDuel stacks belongs to the Giants, who are implied for only 3.8 runs:
As discussed earlier, Godley has been obliterated lately with a distance differential of -24 feet, exit velocity of -6 mph, and hard-hit percentage of -20%.
Leading off for the Giants, Joe Panik is a top option on DraftKings, where he has an 81% Bargain Rating, but he is still squarely in play on FanDuel. He has smashed righties over the past 12 months to the tune of a .354 wOBA and .157 ISO and has solid differentials in distance, exit velocity, and hard-hit rate since coming off the disabled list two games ago.
Other Batters
J.R. Murphy and Nick Ahmed have immense theoretical upside against Holland, who despite having impressive recent Statcast numbers has allowed a slate-high 2.09 HR/9 over the past 12 months. Murphy has been playing as well as anyone recently with an unreal 281-foot batted-ball distance, 97-mph exit velocity, and 71% fly-ball rate. It’s a weird slate with surprising depth at the catcher position, but Murphy could be the best of the bunch with an elite .497 wOBA and .485 ISO against left-handed pitching over the past year. Ahmed is on the right side of his splits with wOBA and ISO differentials of .132 and .159.
Nick Castellanos is on the negative side of his batting splits, but he boasts the slate’s fourth-highest ceiling projection with his 244-foot average distance and 95-mph exit velocity. In the same game, Aaron Judge almost always provides upside and has been hitting the ball better lately with a 50% hard-hit rate.
Braves batters are probably better for cash games than GPPs due to their implied total of 3.8 runs, but Ozzie Albies is intriguing. He sports a 90% Bargain Rating on FanDuel and a strong .428 wOBA against left-handed pitchers, and Richard has a bottom-two WHIP.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Mike Trout
Photo credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
