The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday features a split slate. DraftKings has a nine-game main slate and four-game afternoon slate at 1:05 p.m. ET and 4:05 p.m. ET. FanDuel has a 15-game all-day slate and eight-game main slate at 1:05 p.m. ET and as well as a four-game late slate at 4:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Throughout the day on FanDuel, there are three pitchers who cost $9,000 or more:
Charlie Morton is the most recent Astros pitcher to face the Red Sox, and he’s been fantastic over the past month:
Nevertheless, he has a tough a matchup against a projected lineup that possesses a 23.1% strikeout rate and .330 weighted on-base average (wOBA) over the past 12 months against righties. Vegas is on the Astros’ side at home, as they are sizeable -170 moneyline favorites, and the Red Sox are implied for just 3.5 runs. Morton also owns a solid 8.0 K Prediction. If you’re playing the all-day slate, Morton is an excellent guaranteed prize pool play since most players will likely gravitate toward some of the chalkier pitchers on the main slate. This matchup obviously comes with risk — the Red Sox rank second in weighted runs created plus (wRC+) against right-handed pitching this season (FanGraphs) — but Morton will benefit from the presence of home-plate umpire Ben May, who has gifted a +1.6 FanDuel Plus/Minus to pitchers over the past year.
Blake Snell also has a favorable umpire behind the plate in Ryan Blakney, who has allowed pitchers to surpass salary-based expectations by +1.8 FanDuel points over the past year. Snell may need all the help he can get against a projected Mariners lineup that owns a paltry 21.6% strikeout rate and .334 wOBA against lefties over the past year. Furthermore, the Mariners rank fifth in wRC+ against lefties this season. Snell’s 6.0 K Prediction limits his upside, the Mariners have a respectable 4.0-run implied total, and the Rays are just -105 moneyline odds. Historically, pitchers with comparable salaries, K Predictions, and Vegas data have struggled on FanDuel (per our Trends tool):
Mike Clevinger‘s K prediction (7.3) is on the higher end among pitchers today, but the opposing Twins have a 4.3-run implied total, and the Indians are just -122 moneyline favorites. Clevinger is also priced unfavorably compared to some of the more appealing value options. Pitchers with similar K Predictions and Vegas data have historically averaged a mediocre +0.81 FanDuel Plus/Minus.
Values
Domingo German costs just $6,600 on FanDuel with a 95% Bargain Rating. He has an incredible 11.49 SO/9 over the past year and is sporting a healthy 7.7 K Prediction against the Orioles, who own a fairly high strikeout rate (26.9%) over the past 12 months and rank 25th in wRC+ against righties this season. Pitchers with comparable K Predictions, salaries, and Vegas data (-170 moneyline; 4.1-run opponent implied total) have historically been amazing value plays:
German is also in consideration on DraftKings as an SP2.
The Yankees-Orioles game currently has rain in the forecast, so be sure to monitor its status up until lineup lock.
Brent Suter draws a favorable matchup against a projected White Sox lineup that owns a high 27% strikeout rate and weak .276 wOBA against lefties over the past year. Moreover, the White Sox rank 20th in wRC+ against left-handed pitching this season. Suter doesn’t have a high K Prediction (5.6), but the Brewers are sizeable -160 moneyline favorites.
Fastballs
Jon Lester: He fits into the stud category on DraftKings ($10,400), but he costs $8,400 on FanDuel with a 97% Bargain Rating. Lester leads the main slate with an 8.1 K Prediction against an underwhelming Mets team that ranks dead last in wRC+ against lefties this year. Further, the Mets are implied for a slate-low 3.4 runs, and the Cubs check in as decent -145 moneyline favorites.
Nick Kingham: The Pirates are slight underdogs (+118 moneyline odds) against the Cardinals, but Kingham possesses a solid 7.7 K Prediction. Historically, pitchers with comparable salaries ($8,200), K Predictions, and Vegas data have averaged a +2.00 FanDuel Plus/Minus.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. On the main slate, the top five-man DraftKings stack in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Dodgers, who are implied for slate-high 5.9 run total and boast a slate-best Team Value Rating of 81:
Joc Pederson erupted for two home runs last night, and he may be a popular option today, as he’s projected to occupy the leadoff spot. Pederson has crushed righties over the past 12 months with an exceptional .344 wOBA and .208 isolated power (ISO). The same can be said for Max Muncy, who owns an elite .374 wOBA and .288 ISO. Furthermore, all of the stacked Dodgers possess great recent Statcast data, which may translate well at Coors Field:
The top four-man late-slate FanDuel stack in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Angels, who boast a 5.0-run implied total and Team Value Rating of 78:
Ian Kinsler has been red-hot of late, averaging a +4.37 FanDuel Plus/Minus with 60% Consistency over his past 10 games. He’s hit three home runs in his past five, giving him an excellent 242-foot recent average distance, 92-mph exit velocity, and 50% hard-hit rate. Moreover, Kinsler’s 15-day Statcast data gives him positive differentials when compared to his 12-month averages. His hot streak may continue against Rangers pitcher Doug Fister, who has allowed a .532 wOBA and .423 ISO to opposing hitters over the past 15 days. Historically, hitters with comparable Statcast data and implied run totals have averaged a +2.76 FanDuel Plus/Minus. Mike Trout has obliterated righties over the past year with an absurd .445 wOBA and .320 ISO. Trout’s recent Statcast data has also exceeded his 12-month average: He boasts an absurd 254-foot average distance, 97-mph exit velocity, and 52% hard-hit rate.
Other Batters
On the main slate, there are four teams with implied run totals of at least 5.0. One of those is the Brewers (5.4). Third baseman Travis Shaw has a sublime matchup against White Sox pitcher Dylan Covey, who owns an atrocious 1.55 WHIP, 1.33 HR/9, and 6.30 SO/9 over the past year. Furthermore, Shaw has destroyed righties over the past 12 months to the tune of a .388 wOBA and .281 ISO. His wOBA and ISO differentials (.102 and.107) are among the highest at his position.
For $2,700 on FanDuel, Curtis Granderson is an intriguing tournament play, given that he owns an incredibly high +54 Recent Batted Ball Luck (RRBL). He is in excellent form of late, boasting a 230-foot batted-ball distance, 94-mph exit velocity, and 47% hard-hit rate, but over the past 10 days he’s averaged an awful -3.72 FanDuel Plus/Minus. However, progression could be headed Granderson’s way. Leadoff hitters with comparable RBBLs and Statcast data have averaged a +2.84 FanDuel Plus/Minus.
On the afternoon slate, Justin Bour has destroyed righties over the past year with a .413 wOBA and .274 ISO. He may have low ownership since the Marlins are implied for a mediocre 4.2 runs, but opposing Diamondbacks pitcher Matt Koch has allowed loads of hard contact over the past 15 days with a 93-mph exit velocity and 47% hard-hit rate. He’s also been tagged with a .334 wOBA and .247 ISO over the past 12 months.
Trea Turner comes with a hefty price tag, but he’s in an excellent spot, as the Nationals are implied for 4.7 runs against Braves pitcher Anibal Sanchez. Turner boasts a solid .359 wOBA and decent .170 ISO against righties over the past year. Furthermore, Sanchez has allowed a ridiculous .495 wOBA and .500 ISO to opposing hitters over the past 15 days.
If the rain holds off in Baltimore, Aaron Judge and the Yankees are in play, given their 5.2-run implied total against Orioles pitcher Alex Cobb. Judge is sporting an elite .430 wOBA and .346 ISO against righties over the past 12 months, and he’s produced a lot of hard contact over the past 15 days, as evidenced by his 96-mph exit velocity and 53% hard-hit rate.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Matt Kemp and Max Muncy
Photo credit: Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports
