This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s slate.
Chris Sale: Pitcher, Red Sox
Sale squares off with Gerrit Cole in a marquee battle between the Red Sox and Astros. Even though Sale is an underdog, he seems like the preferable target of the two. He’s been one of the best strikeout pitchers in baseball over the past 12 months with a K/9 of 13.01, and he leads all pitchers with a K Prediction of 8.6 today. He also has a stellar average distance of 190 feet over the past two starts, which represents a differential of -18 feet when compared to his 12-month average. Historically, pitchers with comparable distance differentials and K Predictions have been elite options on FanDuel (per our Trends tool):
Sale’s Vegas data is subpar for a pitcher of his caliber — he has an opponent implied total of 3.7 runs and moneyline odds of +110 — but that could work to reduce his ownership in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs). He’s currently projected for just 9-12% ownership on FanDuel and 21-25% on DraftKings.
Ryan Braun: Outfielder, Brewers
The Brewers are an intriguing team to target. They’re implied for just 4.5 runs, which is drastically lower than some of the top totals today, but they have significant upside against White Sox left-hander Hector Santiago, who has allowed a HR/9 of 2.19 and WHIP of 1.66 over the past 12 months and an abysmal 245-foot distance, 95-mph exit velocity, and 45% hard-hit rate over the past 15 days. As a result, the Brewers are currently grading out as the top-rated five man stack (per the Bales Model):
The Brewers have struggled against left-handed pitchers this season — their .286 wOBA is the second-worst mark in the league — but they could improve moving forward. Braun has historically crushed left-handed pitching, posting a wOBA of .322 and ISO of .245 against southpaws over the past 12 months and has historically averaged a splits-adjusted Plus/Minus of +1.51 on DraftKings. He’s also in good recent form, owning differentials of +27 feet and +14 percentage points since returning from the DL five days ago. Braun and the rest of the Brewers could fly under the radar on today’s slate, which increases their GPP appeal.
Jace Peterson: Second Base, Orioles
Cheap leadoff hitters are typically strong options, and Peterson is expected to occupy the No. 1 spot in the Orioles lineup against Yankees right-hander Sonny Gray:
He’s struggled to score fantasy points recently, owning a Plus/Minus of -2.33 on DraftKings over his past 10 games, but he’s been making great contact over that time frame with a distance differential of +24 feet, resulting in a Recent Batted Ball Luck of +75. Sharp bettors were all over the Orioles yesterday before this matchup got rained out, and they could be back on them today: The Yankees have moved from -175 to -163 despite receiving 82% of the bets. Peterson makes a lot of sense for those looking to pay up at pitcher or stack Coors batters.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Ryan Braun
Photo credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-USA Today Sports
