Identifying value is paramount to success in NBA DFS. If we want to be able to roster the high-floor/high-ceiling premium players like Russell Westbrook, Steph Curry and others, concessions – in the form of low priced players – need to be made. Lucky for us, value is constantly popping up due the nature of the NBA. Whether it be injuries, rest or rotational changes, it is not uncommon to find players thrust into more meaningful roles on a regular basis in this league. When such changes occur, daily fantasy sites generally won’t have the ability to update the player’s pricing to reflect their new role and playing time, and this is where we find our value.

At FantasyLabs, we like to take things one step further. Not only will we be identifying players based upon their expected fantasy output in relation to their price, we’ll be incorporating our Bargain Rating into the equation whenever possible. If you’re unfamiliar with this metric, I recommend taking a look at this short video from our co-founder Jonathan Bales on how he uses this rating within our Player Models tool.

Please note, this article is written earlier in the day. As much of the news surrounding the NBA breaks near tip off, please monitor our Player News page for all relevant updates. Also, all salaries presented below are for DraftKings.

Point Guard

Derrick Rose – $5,800

Rose has burned so many of us this year in one way or another that I really struggled to include him in the column today. I actually almost opted for George Hill at $4,800 instead, but at Rose’s price I just can’t turn a blind eye to the value he presents against Sacramento.

Rose is coming off of an impressive 22-real point outing against a tough Utah Jazz team, and he will look to build off of that tonight against Sacramento. Luckily for him, the Kings are a dream matchup from a point guard’s perspective, as they’re allowing a robust average Plus/Minus of +5.6 fantasy points to the position this season (second highest in the league).

We have a solid 217.5 over/under in this matchup, which at the moment sits as the second-highest mark this evening.

Boasting a 97% Bargain Rating on DK, I’d focus on utilizing him there if you’re opting to gain exposure to him tonight.

Shooting Guard

Bradley Beal – $5,200

Having posted solid results in the three outings since returning from injury, Beal’s low salary is highly exploitable in what should be a decent matchup this evening.

 

While Atlanta’s Opponent Plus/Minus of +0.95 against Beal isn’t horrendous, it’s positive enough that we should be able to squeeze sufficient value out of his $5,200 price tag, which has dropped $1,200 in the previous month.

Looking at how players with large price drops ($1,000 or more) and positive matchups (Opponent Plus/Minus greater than zero) have performed in the past, we can see that Beal’s prospects for this evening are attractive enough to consider him if you’re paying down at the position.

Small Forward

Otto Porter – $4,900

Another Wizard priced low enough to warrant targeting this evening, Porter did very well last week, averaging 29.7 DK points across 32.9 minutes from March 12th through the 19th.

The matchup for Porter, much like Beal, is adequate, if not optimal. Atlanta has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +0.80 against him this evening. And while I wouldn’t necessarily target the two players together, each has enough merit to deserve consideration at their sub-$6k prices tonight.

Power Forward

Nikola Mirotic – $5,200

Despite being moved back to the bench against the Jazz, Mirotic responded with a solid game, posting 32 DK points in just over 32 minutes.

Tasked with a decision between Gibson and Mirotic this evening, I’m apt to lean Gibson in cash, as his minutes/role are seemingly more solid. But in tournaments the upside of Mirotic has me intrigued.

Turning to our Trends tool, we can see how well opposing big men who average at least one made 3-pointer per game (which Mirotic does) have fared.

 

It’s not a huge sample size, but this is a matchup that we’ve successfully attacked with Ryan Anderson in the past, and I’m comfortable going back to that well tonight with Mirotic.

Center

Greg Monroe – $5,600

Monroe has been brutal lately, but that price is just too low. I don’t care if he throws up another dud tonight, the price is still not commensurate with a player of his ilk.

What has really been lacking for Monroe of late is the minutes. Even in solid showings, his ceiling has been capped by his playing time. But with a $5,600 price tag, I’m more than willing to accept that capped ceiling. The matchup against Drummond should be solid (Detroit has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.21 against Monroe), and we’ll get the added benefit of Monroe (assumingly) getting up for this “revenge” game in Detroit.

We’re at Jason Kidd’s mercy if we role out Monroe, but that’s a risk I can get behind for $5,600.