The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features a 14-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Today’s slate features four pitchers with a salary of at least $10,000:
Kenta Maeda stands out as the clear top option of the group. He’s coming off a gem in his last outing, when he struck out 12 batters without allowing a run over 6.1 innings pitched. His Statcast data from the past two starts is also impressive with a 199-foot distance, 86-mph exit velocity, and 18% hard-hit rate. All of those numbers represent decreases when compared to his 12-month averages.
He has a nice matchup today vs. the Philadelphia Phillies, whose projected lineup has posted a strikeout rate of 28.1% against right-handers over the past 12 months. His 9.3 K Prediction is the top mark on today’s slate. He also has strong Vegas data, owning an opponent implied team total of 3.0 runs and moneyline odds of -175. Historically, pitchers with comparable marks in all three categories have been strong values on DraftKings (per the Trends tool):
Maeda’s fantasy value has been capped by pitch-count limitations in the past, but that doesn’t seem to be as big of an issue this season: He’s thrown at least 96 pitches in five of his past seven starts. He should be the highest-owned pitcher on today’s slate.
Charlie Morton is approaching 35 years old but has put together arguably the most impressive season of his career in 2018. He owns a 2.04 ERA through his first 61.2 innings pitched and has averaged a K/9 of 10.95, which has resulted in some impressive fantasy numbers:
Unfortunately, Morton has a brutal matchup against the high-powered Yankees. They currently rank first in the league in runs per game, and their projected lineup has posted a ridiculous .375 wOBA against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. They’re implied for 4.4 runs against Morton, which makes him more of a contrarian tournament option than a cash play.
Blake Snell is another pitcher in good recent form. He’s struck out eight batters in each of his past two starts while allowing a total of just two runs. Those starts have also come against some high-powered offenses in the Red Sox and Angels, who rank second and eighth in runs per game this season.
Unfortunately, those performances belie some concerning Statcast data. He allowed an average batted ball distance of 215 feet over those starts, which represents an increase of +12 feet when compared to his 12-month average. He also allowed a hard-hit rate of 42%, which is among the worst marks on the slate. It’s possible those marks could come back to haunt him against the Oakland A’s, who are implied for 4.0 runs.
Rick Porcello rounds out the group of high-priced pitchers and is the largest favorite on today’s slate against the Toronto Blue Jays (-190 moneyline odds). That said, his odds have more today with Boston’s implied team total of 5.6 runs than his opponent implied team total of 4.0 runs. The Jays have also limited their strikeouts against right-handed pitchers, owning a strikeout rate of just 23.3% over the past 12 months. Given that Porcello has a K/9 of only 8.10 over the same time frame, his upside is limited.
Values
Dan Straily has one of the best matchups on today’s slate. He’s taking on the San Diego Padres, who have averaged the second-fewest runs per game to start the season. Their projected lineup has also struck out in 27.5% of at-bats against right-handers over the past 12 months, which results in a K Prediction of 7.2 for Straily. Unfortunately, the only team that has scored fewer runs this season than the Padres is the Marlins, so Straily is a +133 underdog despite the excellent matchup. That said, his Vegas data could work in our favor for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs), since it will likely result in reduced ownership.
Luis Castillo is one of the most intriguing options today. He has a brutal matchup against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field, which has historically been one of the most hitter-friendly parks in baseball. However, a humidor was installed at the park during the offseason, and it appears to have had a dramatic impact on the hitting conditions. Pitchers at Chase have actually averaged the fourth-highest Plus/Minus to start 2018:
Castillo had a rocky start to his season but has improved over his past five starts. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +7.39 on DraftKings, thanks in part to his ability to strike out batters. He has a K/9 of 9.77 over the past 12 months, and the projected Diamondbacks lineup has struck out in 27.6% of at-bats against right-handers over the same time frame. Castillo’s Statcast data from the past two starts is also solid, giving him negative differentials in distance, exit velocity, and hard-hit rate when compared to his 12-month averages.
Fastballs
Felix Hernandez: He’s struggled to start the season, owning an ERA of 5.58 and a K/9 of just 7.48, but he could be worthy of some consideration. He’s a solid -163 favorite against the Texas Rangers, and his poor fantasy numbers undersell his recent average distance of 200 feet. He also has more strikeout upside than usual given that the projected Rangers lineup has struck out in 27.9% of at-bats against right-handers over the past 12 months.
Tyson Ross: He’s a -144 favorite against the Marlins, whose projected lineup has managed a wOBA of just .288 over the past 12 months. His opponent implied team total of 3.2 runs is also the second-lowest mark on the slate. That said, Ross may not be as safe as his Vegas data suggests: He has a distance differential of +18 feet over his past two starts.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. Today’s top-rated five-man DraftKings stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Minnesota Twins:
The Twins’ implied team total of 4.9 runs is fourth today, but they could have reduced ownership because their total is more than a full run lower than the Rockies’ implied total of 6.0 runs. They’re taking on Royals left-hander Danny Duffy, who has allowed a HR/9 of 1.65 over the past 12 months. He’s been even worse to start the 2018 season, owning an ERA of 6.14 of HR/9 of 2.15, and that’s after allowing just one run over 7.2 innings in his last start. Calling him one of the worst pitchers in baseball to start the season would not be an overstatement. The Statcast data from his past two starts isn’t particularly encouraging either: His average distance of 237 feet represents an increase of +18 feet when compared to his 12-month average.
Miguel Sano is covered in today’s Three Key MLB Players, so let’s focus on projected No. 2 hitter Max Kepler. Some people will likely be scared off by the lefty-lefty matchup, but Kepler has averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.48 to start the 2018 season. He’s also in excellent recent form, owning a distance differential of +13 feet over his past 13 games. He could be a key member of Twins stacks.
The top four-man FanDuel stack in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Atlanta Braves:
The Braves have been one of the biggest surprises to start the 2018 season, thanks in part to a potent young offense. They’ve been particularly dominant against left-handed pitching, owning a wOBA of .366. They’re implied for 4.9 runs today against Mets left-hander Steven Matz, who has struggled to a 1.46 WHIP and 1.76 HR/9 over the past 12 months.
Ozzie Albies has turned into a star for the Braves, posting a scorching .443 wOBA and .291 ISO against southpaws over the past 12 months. He’s especially appealing on FanDuel, where his $3,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%.
Other Batters
The Rockies and Giants are squaring off at Coors Field, which will make both teams popular. Of the two, the Giants might be the preferred target against left-hander Kyle Freeland. All of their top four hitters have a splits advantage, and their slightly lower implied team total could make them the lower-owned team. One batter in particular worth considering is leadoff hitter Gorkys Hernandez, who has posted a distance differential of +22 feet over the past 11 games. He has the ability to go deep and steal bases, and he accomplished both of those feats in yesterday’s contest.
Alex Bregman is taking on Yankees left-hander CC Sabathia, who has allowed a HR/9 of 1.33 over the past 12 months. Even better, he gets to face him at Yankee Stadium, which has historically been one of the most hitter-friendly parks in baseball. Bregman is in excellent recent form, posting an average distance of 244 feet, exit velocity of 95 miles per hour, and hard hit rate of 51% over the past 12 months.
If you’re looking for someone who could be due for some progression, consider Jay Bruce. He’s posted a distance differential of +10 feet over his past 13 games but averaged a Plus/Minus of -2.41 on DraftKings over his past 10. His Recent Batted Ball Luck of +79 is one of the top marks on today’s slate.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Kenta Maeda
Photo credit: Richard Mackson-USA Today Sports
