*Updates:
- In a matter of minutes, Ryan Anderson went from being arguably the strongest cash option in this slate to inactive. Meanwhile, Anthony Davis has (FINALLY) officially been ruled out for the year. Without either available against the Clippers tonight, note Jrue Holiday has recorded a usage of 34.8% when both have been off the floor (per NBAwowy). With a Projected Plus/Minus of +15, there’s zero reason to consider fading him in cash games tonight. Repeat: zero. With an implied total of minimum at FanDuel, both Tim Frazier and Luke Babbitt remain strong options in their back court — with Norris Cole out, Frazier’s Rating of 83.28 qualifies as the fourth-highest among point guards. As for their front court, Omer Asik has a Rating of 79.36 among centers (fourth-highest) due to New Orleans’ outright lack of availability.
- New Orleans’ lack of depth creates elite options for their own team, sure, but their perceived collapse has additionally opened the door for tournament exposure towards the Clippers. It’s a volatile approach for cash (as this total reasonably swung -2.5 points in favor of Los Angeles following Anderson’s status), but most are much more inclined to assume a Clippers route than any competition from the Pelicans. And if that is the case, note DeAndre Jordan has an absurd Bargain Rating of 95% at DraftKings to go along with the highest Opponent Plus/Minus of any center in this slate. Additionally, Chris Paul’s projected floor of 27.9 points trails only Holiday among remaining point guards.
- Although Paul Pierce is expected to start in place of Jeff Green (out), his minimum salary need not be chased. Instead, a pivot towards Jamal Crawford is suggested (in tournaments, anyways) as he’s logged the most minutes in place of Green since the All-Star Break. His Opponent Plus/Minus remains a more advantageous +1.93 at FanDuel due to his lowly implied total of 17.48 points.
Having a good weekend? Good.
(Sorry, I just felt the need to write something beyond “Let’s get to it”.)
Portland Trailblazers at Dallas Mavericks (-1)
Implied Total: 107.3 – 108.3, O/U: 215.5
J.J. Barea has benefited the most without Deron Williams (questionable today) this season, averaging 32.3 DraftKings points in nine starts for the latter. Though Barea would be a terrific option as long as Williams was ruled out, Raymond Felton would arguably make for the stronger tournament play: expected to start at the three no matter, note Felton has averaged a line of 11.1-3.6-5.0 without Williams this season. He’s no longer a sneaky play, but Dirk Nowitzki — Plus/Minus of +10.03 over his last 10 games — remains as strong an option as any at DraftKings where he still includes a Bargain Rating of 95%.
In not being concerned about a blowout for either side, Damian Lillard should yet again be considered a top option at FanDuel (due to his Bargain Rating of 90%). Priced only -$100 lower than Kyle Lowry, for instance, Lillard’s projected floor remains +1.6 points higher. He’s not a terrible option at DraftKings, but I would limit your exposure to FanDuel, where his implied total is -5.22 points lower.
Orlando Magic at Toronto Raptors (-9.5)
Implied Total: 100 – 109.5, O/U: 209.5
You know that last paragraph in which I suggested Lillard over Lowry at FanDuel? Well, due to Lillard’s aforementioned implied total that remains +5.22 points greater at DraftKings, Lowry is actually considered the stronger play across sites: his 95% Bargain Rating at DraftKings additionally includes an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.45 in this slate. DraftKings is also where Lowry is an absurd -$1,000 cheaper than Lillard. Both are terrific plays no matter, it’s just that their individual value can easily be exploited at each respective site.
Brandon Jennings is worth recycling in tournaments if only because of recency bias — despite busting for 14.75 DraftKings points in his last performance, Jennings had exceeded expectations by +18.39 points in his previous two starts. Fortunately, Victor Oladipo (as the lone constant in Scott Skiles’ rotation) remains a steal at DraftKings where he has a Bargain Rating of 95%. Along with the highest-projected floor among off-ball guards, I tend to worry less about his matchup and instead focus on his value.
Boston Celtics (-11) at Philadelphia 76ers
Implied Total: 113.3 – 102.3, O/U: 216.5
The return of Kelly Olynyk immediately rendered Jared Sullinger near useless, as the latter has now logged 19.9 and 16.8 minutes in back-to-back performances. He remains a terrific tournament play given that his peripherals — 93% Bargain Rating at DraftKings, Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.3, etc. — need only minutes to flourish, but Amir Johnson appears to be more in the mix at this time: he’s averaged 28.3 DraftKings points in 25.3 minutes over his last two games. Evan Turner should also be rostered if receiving another start, as his Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.38 remains the second-highest among small forwards — he recorded 30.7 minutes in Boston’s starting-unit Friday night.
Being another game in which Philadelphia will be shorthanded in their front court, all of Nerlens Noel, Jerami Grant, and Hollis Thompson should once again be looked upon as elite cash options. Though the lowest-projected floor among the trio, Thompson’s recent play (and value at FanDuel) essentially speaks for itself:
Los Angeles Clippers (-8) at New Orleans Pelicans
Implied Total: 109.8 – 101.8, O/U: 211.5
It’s obligatory to reference that Ryan Anderson has averaged 37.2 DraftKings points in seven games without Anthony Davis (out) this season. Jrue Holiday has additionally recorded a team-high usage rate of 32.5% in those instances. Though both are considered mandatory cash plays in this slate no matter, both are much more accessible at FanDuel where they have mirror-image Bargain Ratings of 90%. Tim Frazier, implied to score 15.73 points, would remain a tournament play as long as Norris Cole (questionable) were ruled out: despite coming off New Orleans’ bench in his last two appearances, he’s logged +0.7 more minutes than Toney Douglas in that span.
Both DeAndre Jordan and Chris Paul make for arguably the safest plays at their respective positions. Paul, for instance, not only includes the highest-projected floor among point guards, but benefits from an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.41 in this slate. Jordan, along with a 95% Bargain Rating at DraftKings, has been gifted the highest Opponent Plus/Minus among centers. They aren’t exactly under the radar, but even a potential blowout shouldn’t affect either’s opportunity to exceed expectations (due to being underpriced).
Utah Jazz at Milwaukee Bucks (-1)
Implied Total: 95 – 96, O/U: 191
Given his sky-rocketing salary, it made complete and total sense to get off Shelvin Mack yesterday. But even with Gordon Hayward (surprisingly) back in their starting-unit, Mack managed to exceed expectations by +8.97 points — he’s now done so by +12.50 points over his last 10 performances. Limit your exposure — this implied total of 191 is -17 points lower than the next closest — but don’t avoid him entirely.
Although the highest Projected Plus/Minus at his position, Khris Middleton includes an Opponent Plus/Minus of -3.46 in this slate. He should certainly be rostered at DraftKings due to his Bargain Rating of 97%, but it’s admittedly a terrible spot for the Bucks as a whole. Even Giannis Antetokounmpo, despite being one of only two at his position priced over $7k, isn’t a necessity as Carmelo Anthony (who includes a higher Projected Plus/Minus) remains -$1,100 cheaper. Tournament exposure, sure, but paying up in cash isn’t needed.
Sacramento Kings (-3) at New York Knicks
Implied Total: 107.8 – 104.8, O/U: 213
Still underpriced at DraftKings (where his Bargain Rating of 93% stands out), DeMarcus Cousins is basically a must night in and night out. Along with a projected floor +15.4 points greater than the next closest power forward, Cousins (and Sacramento as a whole) remains in an immaculate spot, as this line vehemently swung four points in favor of the Kings overnight. Now road favorites, even Rajon Rondo should warrant heavy tournament consideration, as his salary, despite an increase of +$300 since his last performance, remains under $8k at this time.
Although his position is more top heavy in this slate, the choice between Carmelo Anthony and Antetokounmpo seems all too obvious (for cash games, anyways): having averaged an absurd 37.7 minutes over his last 10 games, Anthony also benefits from an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.03. His Projected Plus/Minus of +7.0 also qualifies as the highest among small forwards. As for reasonable tournament plays among the Knicks, the Robin Lopez-coaster should remain open solely at FanDuel where his lowly implied total of 21.41 points includes an Opponent Plus/Minus +2.82.
Good luck!
