The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
It’s Memorial Day, and there are a lot of slates for your DFS pleasure. DraftKings and FanDuel offer respective 12- and seven-game early slates (as well as 15-game all-day slates) at 1:05 p.m. ET. The four-game main slate for both sites is at 7:10 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
On DraftKings there are four pitchers who cost $10,000 or more:
Justin Verlander has been outstanding this season, averaging a +8.94 DraftKings Plus/Minus with 100% Consistency. The last time Verlander squared off against the Yankees in May, he allowed zero earned runs and struck out 14 hitters in eight innings. Verlander is coming into this game in excellent recent batted-ball form with an 86-mph exit velocity and minuscule 18% hard-hit rate. Overall, he has a tough matchup as the projected Yankees lineup owns a 23.6% strikeout rate and .376 weighted on-base average (wOBA) against righties over the past 12 months, but Verlander has a respectable 7.4 K Prediction, the Astros are favored (-129 moneyline odds), and the Yankees are implied for a palatable 4.0 runs. Pitchers with comparable salaries, K Predictions, and Vegas data have historically outperformed salary-based expectations on DraftKings (per our Trends tool):
Jacob deGrom faces a Braves unit that yesterday carved up Chris Sale for six earned runs in 4.1 innings and whose projected Braves lineup has a low 21.7% strikeout rate against righties over the past 12 months, but deGrom still has a solid 7.2 K Prediction. The Braves could give deGrom trouble, as they rank 11th in wRC+ against righties, but their 3.7-run implied total is low for the slate. Historically, pitchers with comparable salaries, K Predictions, and Vegas data have been reliable:
David Price checks in as one of the largest favorites on the slate (-183 moneyline odds). Price has rebounded nicely over his past three games after an abysmal start to the season, and the opposing Blue Jays are implied for just 3.9 runs. The drawback with Price is that you’re paying a premium for potentially not much upside (5.6 K Prediction). His $10,200 salary is $2,700 higher than it was roughly two weeks ago. Pitchers with comparable salaries, K Predictions, and Vegas data have historically failed to reach salary-based expectations nearly half the time:
Gio Gonzalez has a negative park shift at Camden Yards, and he has a relatively average matchup against an Orioles team that ranks 17th in wRC+ against lefties this season. For a top-tier pitcher, Gio has a high 4.2-run implied total. However, he boasts some of the best recent batted-ball data on the slate with a 192-foot average distance, 88-mph exit velocity, and excellent 20% hard-hit rate. Historically, pitchers with comparable salaries, batted-ball metrics, K Predictions (6.9), and Vegas data have averaged a +2.12 DraftKings Plus/Minus. Given that none of the top pitchers has a great matchup, ownership may be relatively spread out in large-field tournaments.
Values
Caleb Smith takes on a Padres team that ranks 23rd in wRC+ against lefties this season. Smith has been outstanding this year on DraftKings:
At $8,100 on DraftKings he’s a solid SP2 option, and on FanDuel he has a 70% Bargain Rating. Smith’s 11.45 SO/9 over the past year is excellent, and his 7.9 K Prediction provides him with a stable floor and ceiling. Furthermore, the Marlins are slight favorites (-114 moneyline odds), and the opposing Padres are implied for a paltry 3.7 runs. Historically, pitchers with comparable salaries, K Predictions, and Vegas data have been nice investments, sporting a +1.64 DraftKings Plus/Minus with 58.3% Consistency.
Adam Plutko was called up by the Indians recently and in his last start managed to toss a shutout against the Cubs. The opposing White Sox rank ninth in wRC+ against righties, but their projected lineup also has a 30.7% strikeout rate and .277 wOBA against righties over the past year. Plutko has a serviceable 6.3 K Prediction, the Indians are the most significant favorites of the day (-192 moneyline odds), and the White Sox are implied for a subpar 3.8 runs.
Fastballs
Chris Archer: The Rays are slight underdogs (+120 moneyline odds), but Archer owns a solid 7.5 K Prediction. He’s given up a fair amount of hard contact over his past two games (41% hard-hit rate), but his 181-foot average distance is excellent. Pitchers with comparable Vegas data and K Predictions have historically averaged a +1.99 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
Trevor Cahill: He owns a 72% Bargain Rating on DraftKings, and the A’s are -130 moneyline favorites against the Rays, who are implied for the lowest total on the day (3.6 runs).
Luke Weaver: The Cardinals are just -114 moneyline favorites, but Weaver has a solid 7.4 K Prediction and is in excellent recent batted-ball form (193-foot average distance). He, however, is not without risk: He has a Park Factor of 46 at Miller Park, and the opposing Brewers are implied for 4.4 runs.
Vincent Velasquez: He has a plus matchup against the Dodgers, who rank 20th in wRC+ against righties and have a projected lineup with a 30.3% strikeout rate against righties over the past year. Velasquez’s 7.2 K Prediction is among the highest marks of the day, and the Phillies are just barely underdogs with +113 moneyline odds.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top five-man DraftKings stack for the early slate in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Diamondbacks, who are implied for 4.9 runs:
The Diamondbacks have the luxury of squaring off against Reds pitcher Homer Bailey, who struggles to strike out batters and owns an awful 1.73 WHIP over the past 12 months. Further, he’s allowed a massive 96-mph exit velocity and 43% hard-hit rate over his past two games. Paul Goldschmidt is on the negative side of his wOBA and ISO splits, but he’s in great recent batted-ball form with a 227-foot average distance, 95-mph exit velocity, and 50% hard-hit rate. Additionally, his +73 Recent Batted Ball Luck (RBBL) suggests that he’s been unlucky lately as a fantasy producer. Historically, hitters with comparable batted-ball metrics and RBBLs have averaged a +1.93 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
The top four-man FanDuel stack on the main slate belongs to the Giants, who are implied for 5.6 runs and own an excellent Team Value Rating of 78:
Brandon Belt has smashed righties over the past 12 months to the tune of a .395 wOBA and .260 ISO. Moreover, he’s obliterated the baseball over the past 15 days with an absurd 262-foot average distance, 94-mph exit velocity, and 50% hard-hit rate. Those recent batted-ball numbers could translate well at Coors Field, where hitters with Weather Ratings in the 90th percentile have historically averaged a +2.79 FanDuel Plus/Minus with 50% Consistency.
Other Batters
Edwin Encarnacion has a sublime matchup against White Sox pitcher Dylan Covey. Encarnacion has crushed righties over the past 12 months with a .383 wOBA and .273 ISO. Further, he has recently put up great batted-ball numbers with a 266-foot average distance, 96-mph exit velocity, and 63% hard-hit rate. Implied for 5.3 runs, the Indians are in a great spot.
Jose Martinez‘s ISO (.208) and wOBA (.147) differentials are among the best on the slate, and he has sported an elite .496 wOBA and .370 ISO against lefties over the past year.
People love to target home-run hitters, but base stealers can provide plenty of value. Three projected leadoff hitters have Stolen Base Prediction of at least 0.30, including Delino DeShields (0.32) and Travis Jankowski (0.38). Their teams are implied for 3.8 and 3.7 runs, but hitters with comparable SB Predictions and Vegas data have historically averaged a +0.86 DraftKings Plus/Minus with a solid 48% Consistency Rating.
Trea Turner leads the day with a 0.45 SB Prediction, and hitters with SB Predictions that high have been extremely reliable. The Nationals are in a great spot with a 4.9-run implied total, and hitters with comparable SB Predictions and Vegas data have averaged a +1.46 DraftKings Plus/Minus with an absurd 57.1% Consistency Rating.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Trea Turner
Photo credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
