The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday features an 11-game DraftKings and nine-game FanDuel main slate at 1:05 p.m.
Pitchers
Studs
There are three pitchers on FanDuel who own salaries of $10,000 or more:
Chris Sale checks in with largest moneyline odds on the slate (-230) and faces a Braves team implied for a slate-low 3.2 runs. However, he arguably has one of the toughest matchups among the aces: The projected Braves lineup doesn’t strike out much against lefties (19.5% strikeout rate over the past 12 months), and it boasts a .339 weighted on-base average (wOBA) within the same time frame. By Sale’s standards, his 7.8 K Prediction is on the low end, but he has historically dominated when the Red Sox are at least -200 moneyline favorites (per our Trends tool):
Gerrit Cole is on the road against the excellent Indians. Their projected lineup possesses a stellar 20.1% strikeout rate and .334 wOBA against righties over the past 12 months. That said, Cole has been on fire this season with his 40.2% strikeout rate (FanGraphs), and he also has a favorable umpire behind the plate, as Tony Randazzo has allowed pitchers to outscore salary-based expectations by an average of +1.2 FanDuel points per game. Given that Cole’s K Prediction (6.7) and moneyline odds (-134) are lower than those of the other stud pitchers, Cole sets up better as a contrarian option than a cash game play. Historically, pitchers with comparable salaries, K Predictions, and Vegas data have averaged a +3.24 FanDuel Plus/Minus.
Stephen Strasburg checks in with the most favorable matchup among the top-priced pitchers. The projected Marlins lineup has a high 28.6% strikeout rate and mediocre .276 wOBA against righties over the past year. Furthermore, Strasburg has a slate-high 8.8 K Prediction, and the Nationals check in as sizeable -190 moneyline favorites. In a pitcher-friendly stadium with an 86 Park Factor and facing a Marlins team implied for 3.2 runs, Strasburg has just one notable flaw: His recent batted-ball data is inflated with a 241-foot average distance, 97-mph exit velocity, and 48% hard-hit rate over his past two games.
Values
James Tallion owns an excellent 92% DraftKings Bargain Rating at home, where he has an 87 Park Factor in a near pick’em against the Cardinals (-104 moneyline odds). Tallion has been sporadic this season (30% Consistency Rating), but saving salary at SP2 may be necessary to get exposure to some expensive bats. Overall, his 7.4 K Prediction is the slate’s fourth-best mark, and the Cardinals’ implied run total (4.0) isn’t overly intimidating. The projected Cardinals lineup owns an exploitable 28.1% strikeout rate against righties over the past 12 months. Pitchers with comparable DraftKings salaries ($5,800), K Predictions, and Vegas data have historically been serviceable:
Jhoulys Chacin is a potential punt option on FanDuel, where he costs $6,700. He’s been steady over his past 10 games:
The Brewers have favorable -144 moneyline odds against a projected Mets lineup with a 27% strikeout rate and below-average .295 wOBA against righties over the past year. Chacin’s recent batted-ball data is among the best on the slate as evidenced by his 179-foot average distance, 85-mph exit velocity, and 24% hard-hit rate. All of his batted-ball metrics are substantially lower than his 12-month averages. Historically, pitchers with comparable salaries, batted-ball metrics, and Vegas data have been exceptional values, averaging a +5.34 FanDuel Plus/Minus.
Fastballs
Nick Pivetta: Has been on fire lately, striking out seven or more batters and allowing one combined earned run over his past three starts. Pivetta owns a solid 7.2 K Prediction in a game that’s currently a pick’em. His only major concern is a 232-foot recent average distance. Overall, he has an average matchup against a Blue Jays team that ranks 17th in weighted runs created plus (wRC+) against righties this season.
J.A. Happ: Is pitching opposite Pivetta. Overall, Happ has been steady this season, averaging a +7.28 FanDuel Plus/Minus with 70% Consistency. He has a slightly below-average matchup against the Phillies, who rank eighth in wRC+ against lefties this season. However, their projected lineup owns a 26.8% strikeout rate over the past year.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. One of the top non-Coors five-man DraftKings stacks in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Rangers, who are implied for 5.4 runs (third on the slate) with a solid Team Value Rating of 86:
In a non-shocking move, I’m writing up Joey Gallo, who has smashed righties to the tune of a .358 wOBA and .331 isolated power (ISO) over the past 12 months. Furthermore, Gallo can hit the ball a mile, as evidenced recently by his 242-foot average distance, 95-mph exit velocity, and 43% hard-hit rate. He’s a boom-or-bust player with his massive 39.1% strikeout rate over the past year, but he is primed for progression with his +65 Recent Batted Ball Luck (RBBL), as Royals pitcher Jason Hammel has allowed a robust 94-mph exit velocity and 46% hard-hit rate over the past 15 days. Shin-Soo Choo and Nomar Mazara are two other lefties on the positive side of their wOBA and ISO splits:
Without Coors on the FanDuel main slate, the Brewers currently rank as the top stack in the CSURAM88 Model. They’re implied for a slate-high 4.9 runs:
They have a decent matchup against Mets pitcher Zack Wheeler, who can get himself into trouble with his a 1.71 WHIP and 1.68 HR/9 over the past year and 5.32 ERA this season. Travis Shaw has obliterated righties over the past 12 months to the tune of an elite .397 wOBA and .281 ISO. His 0.123 wOBA Diff and 0.113 ISO Diff are among the best marks on the slate. Furthermore, Shaw is in excellent recent batted-ball form with a 237-foot recent average distance, giving him a +13-foot differential when compared to his 12-month average. Historically, hitters with comparable batted-ball metrics and implied run totals have averaged a +1.70 FanDuel Plus/Minus.
Other Batters
FanDuel doesn’t have Coors Field on its main slate, but if you’re playing on DraftKings it may be wise to gain exposure to the Reds-Rockies game. Historically, when games have Park Factors and Weathers Ratings in the 90th percentile, they’ve led to high consistency for hitters:
David Dahl has a sublime matchup against pitcher Matt Harvey. I highlight Dahl in today’s Three Key MLB Players. Jesse Winker is projected to occupy the leadoff spot for the Reds, and he’s sporting an exceptional 70% Bargain Rating over the past 10 games. Coors leadoff hitters have historically averaged a +1.93 DraftKings Plus/Minus with an outstanding 53.2% Consistency Rating. Teammate Joey Votto is also in play: He owns a .440 wOBA and .215 ISO against righties over the past 12 months.
Brett Gardner offers some cheap exposure to the Yankees with his 76% FanDuel Bargain Rating. He’s been recently reliable, averaging a +2.58 FanDuel Plus/Minus with 60% Consistency, and he’s on the positive side of his wOBA and ISO differentials, possessing a .346 wOBA and .154 ISO.
Curtis Granderson is an interesting tournament play against Pivetta’s 232-foot recent average distance allowed. The Blue Jays are implied for a subpar 4.0 runs, but Granderson has crushed righties over the past 12 months with an elite .369 wOBA and .259 ISO. Further, he’s entering this game in exceptional recent batted-ball form with a 235-foot average distance, 93-mph exit velocity, and 50% hard-hit rate. His robust +60 RBBL suggests that his recent mediocre fantasy production is little more than bad luck, and hitters with comparable batted-ball data and implied run totals have historically averaged just a 3.7% ownership on FanDuel.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Stephen Strasburg
Photo credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
