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DraftKings and FanDuel are each offering $100,000 first-place prizes in their largest one-game guaranteed prize pools for Saturday’s Game 6 of the Western Conference Finals between the Houston Rockets and Golden State Warriors at 9 p.m. ET.
If you’re not familiar, DraftKings’ one-game contests feature six-man rosters, a $50,000 cap, and no scoring multipliers, while FanDuel’s feature five-man rosters, a $60,000 cap, and scoring multipliers for whichever player you designate as the MVP (2x), Star (1.5x), and Pro (1.2x). FanDuel’s multipliers introduce more lineup combinations and should help to limit some of the all-too-common ties that occur in these contests, while DraftKings’ lack of multipliers increases the likelihood of ties and therefore provides extra incentive to go contrarian in other ways, such as by taking a player projected for extremely low ownership or by leaving salary on the table.
Houston Rockets at Golden State Warriors (-12.5) | O/U: 213
9 p.m. ET | TNT
Game 5 was the definition of a pyrrhic victory for the Rockets. They managed to eek out a 98-94 victory and take a 3-2 series lead but lost star point guard Chris Paul in the process. Teams that lead a seven-game series 3-2 have historically won the series 84.8% of the time, yet the Warriors are still -175 favorites to advance to their fourth straight NBA Finals. The Warriors are also 12.5-point favorites in Game 6 at home and are currently receiving 55% of the bets. The importance of this injury cannot be overstated. Paul may return for Game 7 (if necessary), but odds are he will be severely limited.
Warriors (112.75 implied points)
The Warriors are dealing with their own injury situation, as Andre Iguodala has missed each of the last two games. Their offense has seemingly fallen apart without him serving as a reliable fifth option, resulting in an average of just 97.2 points per 100 possessions. He is currently listed as questionable and looks like he could be trending towards another game-time decision.
Stephen Curry had a solid performance in Game 6, resulting in 48.4 FanDuel points, but he continues to search for his missing jump shot. He was just 2-of-8 from 3-point range in that game, which brings his overall mark to just 15-of-46 (32.6%) on the series — a massive decrease from his regular-season mark of 42.3%. Perhaps he will finally see some regression at home in Game 6. He could also see a bit of an easier time on offense with Paul not available to harass him on defense.
Kevin Durant remains the most expensive option for the Warriors on both DraftKings and FanDuel despite the fact that he’s yet to post a positive Plus/Minus in any game this series. He’s averaged a pedestrian 1.16 FanDuel points per minute over the past month and has been held largely in check by the individual defense of Trevor Ariza, who has limited Durant to 6.5 points per 100 possessions below his regular season scoring average. Ariza has guarded Durant almost exclusively over the past three games. Durant can obviously go off against anyone, but he seems a bit overpriced at the moment given the matchup.
Draymond Green does a lot of great things for the Warriors but has really hurt them over the past two games with his turnovers. He’s turned it over 11 times over that span, which has hurt him from a fantasy perspective as well. He’s scored at least 10 points and ripped down at least 13 boards in each of the past three games, so he’ll have a lot of upside if he can turn some of those turnovers into assists.
Klay Thompson played through an injury in Game 4 but it didn’t seem to hamper his shooting ability. He was 8-of-14 from the field and 4-of-7 from 3-point range, resulting in 23 points scored. Unfortunately, the same issues that are always there for Thompson will be present for Game 6 as well: He provides virtually nothing in the peripheral categories and will need a huge offensive night to be a big value at his current salary. Unfortunately, he’s posted a usage rate of just 19.4% during this series, so that doesn’t seem very likely.
Andre Iguodala will hold down the final spot in the starting lineup if he’s active. He’s averaged a solid 0.84 fantasy points per minute over the past month. That honor will fall to Kevon Looney if Iguodala is inactive, but Looney has been far better in this series when coming off the bench. Looney has averaged just 0.62 FanDuel points per minute over the past two games and might actually be a better target if Iguodala plays. Looney will likely garner lower ownership in that scenario as well.
No one else really stands out for the Warriors. Jordan Bell could deserve some consideration if Iguodala can’t suit up, but he managed just 7.3 FanDuel points over 14 minutes in Game 5. David West also reemerged for the Warriors in Game 5 but proved to be a major liability on the defensive end. It seems unlikely that he’ll play much of a factor Saturday.
Shaun Livingston, Nick Young, and Quinn Cook round out the Warriors’ rotation. Livingston is the best bet for minutes but has averaged just 0.65 fantasy points per minute over the past month. Cook seemed to replace Young in the rotation in Game 5, with the latter seeing just 0.5 minutes of playing time, but Cook was largely a non-factor in his eight minutes. It’s possible that their minutes could flip-flop for Game 6, but it’s a super long shot that either does enough to make a fantasy impact.
Rockets (100.25 implied points)
The Rockets have a lower implied team total than the Warriors but are likely still the more appealing fantasy target, as losing Paul should result in a boost of value for most of their players.
James Harden is the most obvious benefactor. Per our NBA On/Off tool, Harden saw a usage bump of 2.5% with Paul off the court during the regular season, resulting in an average of 56.83 DraftKings points per 36 minutes:
Harden’s usage rate has been even higher during the postseason with Paul off the court (39.8%), and he’s like to take on a massive workload in Game 6. Harden is coming off an abysmal performance in Game 5, but his ceiling is substantially higher than the high-priced options on the Warriors.
Eric Gordon will likely replace Paul in the starting lineup, and he’s averaged 30.1 DraftKings points per game in 21 games with Paul out of the lineup this season. Gordon’s usage rate of 27.1% ranked second only to Harden over those contests, and he’s coming off arguably his best game of the series in Game 5. He should be extremely popular in all formats and is worth considering in one of the premium spots on FanDuel.
P.J. Tucker and Trevor Ariza likely wont see the same kind of usage bump as Harden and Gordon, but they should see a tremendous amount of playing time Saturday. Tucker has been the superior option on a per-minute basis over the past month, averaging 0.68 FanDuel points per minute compared to just 0.54 for Ariza, but Ariza was actually the better per-minute producer during the regular season. Both players make sense at their current salaries, but Ariza looks to be the preferable option given that he’s cheaper on both DraftKings and FanDuel and will likely command lower ownership.
Gerald Green played 16 minutes in Game 5 and is the most likely candidate to assume the majority of Paul’s minutes in Game 6. He averaged a respectable 0.81 FanDuel points per minute during the regular season and is a good bet to rank third on the team in usage rate. He’s one of the top value options available.
Clint Capela put together a phenomenal regular season for the Rockets but continues to see a reduced workload in this series. He’s played 26.5 minutes or less in each of the past three games, and he has unsurprisingly failed to return value in each of those contests. He could see a few additional minutes if the Rockets decide to play bigger without Paul, but that’s far from a guarantee. He’s a risky proposition at his current salary.
Luc Mbah a Moute and Joe Johnson are the last two Rockets worthy of consideration. Mbah a Moute was expected to be a key contributor for the Rockets during this series but has been absolutely abysmal on the offensive end. For that reason, Johnson might be the more appealing target of the two. If Johnson proves to be more effective than Mbah a Moute, he could wind up seeing a healthy amount of minutes off the bench.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA News Feed.
Pictured above: James Harden (left) and Eric Gordon (right)
Photo credit: Erik Williams – USA Today Sports
