The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday has a split slate. In addition to having an all-day slate at 12:35 p.m. ET, FanDuel and DraftKings have respective three- and four-game early slates at the same time. The four-game DraftKings main slate is at 6:10 p.m. ET; the three-game FanDuel main slate, 7:10 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
There are two pitchers on DraftKings who cost $11,000 or more:
Thursday is a subpar slate all over the place. As of writing, the largest favorites on the slate have just -150 moneyline odds. Astros pitcher Charlie Morton has a tough draw against a projected Indians lineup that owns a 19.6% strikeout rate and .336 weighted on-base average (wOBA). Against a low-strikeout team, Morton has a K Prediction of just 6.3.
Nevertheless, Morton is in good form with a recent average distance of 189 feet and exit velocity of 89 mph. Additionally, Morton’s last start was against the Indians, whom he limited to one earned run in seven innings while striking out eight batters. On an underwhelming pitching slate, Morton has some of the better Vegas data as a -125 moneyline favorite, and the Indians are implied for just 3.8 runs. Historically, pitchers with comparable salaries, K Predictions, and Vegas data have been serviceable even if unexceptional (per our Trends tool):
Rick Porcello has been steady this season for the Red Sox, averaging a +3.81 DraftKings Plus/Minus with a 78% Consistency Rating. However, Porcello isn’t a high-strikeout pitcher: He owns an 8.15 SO/9 over the past 12 months and paltry 5.6 K Prediction against the Rays tonight. The Rays have hit righties better than lefties over the past year with a splits-adjusted strikeout differential of about -5.0 percentage points. If someone other than Blake Snell were starting for the Rays, the Red Sox would likely be larger than -132 moneyline favorite since the Rays are implied for just 3.5 runs. Pitchers with comparable salaries, K Predictions, and Vegas data have historically underwhelmed:
Values
Danny Duffy has a 93% Bargain Rating on DraftKings and costs a mere $4,300. Duffy has been awful this season for the Royals, but options are limited on this slate. Over the past year, the projected Rangers lineup has a 28.7% strikeout rate and .307 wOBA against lefties. The Rangers also rank 23rd in weighted runs created plus (wRC+) this season. Duffy amazingly has the second-highest K Prediction (6.6) on the day.
Dylan Bundy has the highest K Prediction (8.3) today and is facing the White Sox. He’s had a few rough starts for the Orioles, as indicated by his 2-6 record, but overall Bundy has been a reliable fantasy producer, averaging a +1.41 DraftKings Plus/Minus with 70% Consistency. He has worrisome batted-ball data with a 244-foot average distance and 92-mph exit velocity over his past two starts, but his matchup isn’t overly intimidating.
Fastballs
Blake Snell: Owns a stellar 1.15 WHIP, 1.07 HR/9, and 9.22 SO/9 over the past 12 months. His matchup isn’t great against the Red Sox, whose projected lineup has a 22.5% strikeout rate and .336 wOBA against lefties over the past year, but Boston ranks 28th in wRC+ this season. The Rays are just slight +126 moneyline dogs. Snell is an intriguing tournament option at home (Park Factor of 86) with a 6.6 K Prediction.
Mike Clevinger: Has a tough matchup against a projected Astros lineup with a 16.7% strikeout rate and .347 wOBA against righties over the past 12 months. Houston also ranks eighth in wRC+ this season, but the Indians are just +115 home underdogs, and Clevinger is in good form with a distance differential of -17 feet.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top five-man early-slate DraftKings stack in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Blue Jays, who are implied for 4.7 runs:
It’s an excellent matchup for the Blue Jays as they take on Angels righty Nick Tropeano, who has struggled of late, posting a recent average distance of 223 feet, exit velocity of 91 mph, and robust hard-hit of 48%. Curtis Granderson, who sports an elite .371 wOBA and .255 ISO against righties over the past year, is on the positive side of his wOBA, and ISO splits. Furthermore, Granderson is in solid recent batted-ball form, boasting an average distance of 224 feet, exit velocity of 93 mph, and hard-hit rate of 50%. Historically, hitters with comparable batted-ball metrics and implied run totals have averaged a +1.29 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
All of the stacked batters own wOBAs above .354 and have shown exceptional power with ISOs above .216 over the past 12 months. They’re also all either hitting the ball far or generating plenty of hard contact:
The top four-man main-slate FanDuel stack in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Brewers, who are implied for a solid 4.7 runs. Their Team Value Rating of 80 is the best mark on the main slate:
The Brewers take on Mets pitcher Steven Matz, who has a woeful 1.85 HR/9 over the past 12 months as well as a 221-foot average distance and 93-mph exit velocity over the past two games. Lorenzo Cain, Ryan Braun, and Jesus Aguilar have all demolished lefties over the past 12 months and are on the positive side of their wOBA and ISO splits:
Aguilar in particular stands out with a +4.77 FanDuel Plus/Minus over his past 10 games. Furthermore, Aguilar is smoking the baseball as evidenced by his massive 250-foot average distance, 95-mph exit velocity, and 44% hard-hit rate over the past 15 days.
Other Batters
Manny Machado has smashed righties over the past 12 months to the tune of a .364 wOBA and .235 ISO, and he’s in good batted-ball form, posting positive differentials in average distance and hard-hit rate over the past 15 days. Teammate Adam Jones also has a .332 wOBA and .205 ISO. The Orioles are in a good spot, implied for 4.9 runs against White Sox pitcher Lucas Giolito, who has allowed a recent average distance of 215 feet with an exit velocity of 92-mph over his past two starts.
If you can afford them, Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani have elite wOBAs and ISOs against righties over the past 12 months:
Mike Moustakas is on the positive side of his wOBA and ISO splits, posting a .361 wOBA and .269 ISO against righties over the past 12 months, during which time Rangers pitcher Austin Bibens-Dirkx has allowed a .351 wOBA and .212 ISO.
Mookie Betts has been on fire over the past 10 games, averaging a +4.43 DraftKings Plus/Minus with 60% Consistency. He’s also posted positive 15-day/12-month differentials in recent average distance, exit velocity, and hard-hit rate. His teammate J.D. Martinez is sporting an absurd 95-mph exit velocity and 50% hard-hit rate over the past 15 days. Further, Betts and Martinez are each on the positive side of their wOBA and ISO splits, which are rather elite:
Additionally, Snell has allowed a .361 wOBA and .293 ISO to opposing hitters over the past 15 days.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Mookie Betts
Photo credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
