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Both DraftKings and FanDuel are offering $100,000 first-place prizes in their largest one-game guaranteed prize pools for Wednesday’s Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Finals between the Cleveland Cavaliers and Boston Celtics at 8:30 p.m. ET.
If you’re not familiar, DraftKings’ one-game contests feature six-man rosters, a $50,000 cap, and no scoring multipliers, while FanDuel’s feature five-man rosters, a $60,000 cap, and scoring multipliers for whichever player you designate as the MVP (2x), Star (1.5x), and Pro (1.2x). FanDuel’s multipliers introduce more lineup combinations and should help to limit some of the all-too-common ties that occur in these contests, while DraftKings’ lack of multipliers increases the likelihood of ties and therefore provides extra incentive to go contrarian in other ways, such as by taking a player projected for extremely low ownership or by leaving salary on the table.
Cleveland Cavaliers at Boston Celtics (-1) O/U: 206
8:30 p.m. ET | ESPN
Celtics (103.5 implied points)
Boston was throttled in both games in Cleveland, losing by an average of 19.5 points, which allowed the Cavs to tie the series at 2-2 as it heads back to Boston. However, the Celtics have been drastically better at home during the postseason, owning a perfect 9-0 record when playing at the Boston Garden. Sharp bettors clearly believe in this angle, as the spread has moved from a pick ‘em to -1 in favor of the Celtics despite 51% of the bets coming in on the Cavaliers.
One player in particular who should be happy to return home is Terry Rozier. He’s coming off 49.0 DraftKings points in Game 4, but for the most part, he’s been a drastically better producer at home than on the road this season, posting an average DraftKings Plus/Minus of +5.0 at home compared to +0.6 on the road, per our NBA Trends tool. Rozier looks like an excellent target on DraftKings, where he’s priced as just the fifth-most expensive option on the slate, and he warrants consideration for one of the premium spots on FanDuel as well.
Al Horford has been a reliable option for the majority of the postseason but has failed to return value in each of his past two games. One reason for Horford’s struggles has been Cleveland’s decision to insert Tristan Thompson into the starting lineup. Horford has absolutely feasted on Kevin Love, exceeding his per-100-possession scoring average by 31.8 points, but Thompson has been able to hold him to just 3-of-11 shooting in 137 possessions during the series. Two of those makes came from behind the 3-point line, so Thompson has been able to smother Big Al on the interior. Thompson should remain in the starting lineup for Game 5, which makes Horford a tough sell at his current salary.
Jayson Tatum disappeared over the past three games, averaging just 20.5 DraftKings points per game. He’s averaged a respectable 15.3 real points per game but has been plagued by a lack of peripheral statistics, grabbing six rebounds and handing out four assists over those three games despite averaging approximately six and two, respectively, per 36 minutes during the regular season. Tatum played 38.5 minutes in Game 4, so it could make sense to bet on some positive regression for Tatum on Wednesday.
It will be interesting to see how many minutes Marcus Morris plays in Game 5. He averaged 34 minutes per game over the first two games of the series — largely due to his ability to defend LeBron James — but that figure dropped to just 25 minutes per game during the two games in Cleveland. That could stem from the fact that neither of those games was very competitive, but the Celtics have also shown an increased willingness to try different defenders on LeBron as the series has progressed. Morris matched up with James on just 10 possessions during Game 4, which ranked fourth on the team, and if Morris is not going to spend as much time defending LeBron, it’s possible he could play reduced minutes for the third straight game.
If Morris does lose minutes, some of them could find their way to Marcus Smart, who is coming off 30.5 minutes in Game 4. Smart has averaged 0.91 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.
Jaylen Brown has been arguably the Celtics’ best player in this series, scoring at least 38.0 DraftKings points in every game but Game 3. Unfortunately, Brown has seen more and more of LeBron on defense as the series has progressed. James was Brown’s primary defender for just 33 possessions over the first two games, but that number increased to 54 over the last two. LeBron has essentially been the only member of the Cavs who has been able to stop Brown — Brown is exceeding his per-100 scoring average against J.R. Smith, Kyle Korver, and George Hill — and the Celtics have averaged 16.3 fewer points per 100 possessions as a team in that matchup. Brown should continue to see a healthy dose of LeBron in Game 5, which limits his appeal.
Those six players should handle the majority of the minutes for the Celtics, but Aron Baynes and Semi Ojeleye should also get some run. Over the past month, Baynes has averaged a strong 0.94 DraftKings points per minute and could make some sense at $5,100 on DraftKings. On the other hand, Ojeleye’s average of 0.39 DraftKings points per minute makes him virtually unrosterable, even at a near-minimum salary.
If you think this game is going to be a blowout, Greg Monroe could also deserve some consideration. He didn’t play in Game 4 but scored 15.25 DraftKings points in 16.5 minutes in Game 3. He’ll likely only get in the game if its noncompetitive, but he’s proven that he can do some damage from a fantasy perspective when given an opportunity.
Cavaliers (102.5 implied points)
The Cavs have made this a series again after holding serve at home, but they’re going to need to find a way to steal a game in Boston in order to win it. Cleveland has been atrocious on both ends of the court on the road during this series, but the increase minutes for Thompson should help stabilize things for them on the defense end. Where they really need to improve is on offense after averaging just 93.0 points per 100 possessions during the two games in Boston.
The Cavs’ road problems have not been due to the play of LeBron James, who continues to dominate the postseason during his 15th year in the league. LeBron is averaging 1.59 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, which is the highest mark on the slate by a significant margin. He’s also projected by our NBA Models for the most minutes of any player on the slate. If the Cavs are going to steal Game 5 in Boston, it will almost undoubtedly come on the back of a big game from LeBron. He’s the no-brainer choice for the MVP slot on FanDuel and is a tough fade on DraftKings as well.
Kevin Love has struggled a bit in his past two games, posting an atrocious average Plus/Minus of -8.20 on FanDuel. Love has still managed to rip down 12.5 rebounds per game during that stretch, but he’s struggled to shoot the ball from the field (29.2%) and 3-point range (25.0%), representing a significant decrease from his regular-season averages of 45.8% and 41.5%, respectively. Love could be a positive regression candidate, though he’s tough to fit in along with LeBron on DraftKings given their respective salaries.
Tristan Thompson has gone from an afterthought to arguably the Cavs’ third most important player during the postseason, culminating with 38.5 minutes of court time in Game 4. Thompson scored 38.0 DraftKings points in that contest and should continue to play a massive role for the Cavs moving forward.
The big question for Cleveland is if anyone outside of LeBron, Love, and Thompson can step up on the road. J.R. Smith and George Hill were abominable in Game 2, combining for just three points on 1-of-11 shooting in 60 minutes. Both players were much better at home in Game 3 and Game 4, and they need to find a way to carry that production into Boston. Of the two, Hill seems like the best bet for production after playing more than 38 minutes in Game 4; he has little competition for minutes at point guard. Hill has also been superior to Smith on a per-minute basis, averaging 0.71 DraftKings points per minute on the season compared to 0.59 for Smith.
Kyle Korver has arguably the most upside of all the Cavs role players given his ability to shoot the basketball from deep. Korver shot a pristine 9-of-12 from the field and 6-of-9 from 3-point range while the series was in Cleveland, resulting in an average of 21.75 DraftKings points per game. He wont see as many minutes as Hill or Smith due to his athletic limitations on the defensive end of the court, but he should be safe for a minimum of 25 as long as the game stays competitive.
Rounding out the Cavs rotation is Jeff Green and Larry Nance Jr. Green remains one of the most frustrating players in the league, looking unstoppable on some nights and completely disappearing on others. Green is yet to make a real impact in this series but is always a threat to blow up. Nance Jr. should play minimal minutes but still has the potential to make a large impact. He’s one of the best per-minute producers on the team, averaging 0.97 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he scored 18.25 DraftKings points in Game 4 despite seeing only 10.5 minutes of playing time. Nance is definitely someone to consider at just $3,300 on DraftKings.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA News Feed.
Pictured above (from left): LeBron James, Tristan Thompson, J.R. Smith, George Hill
Photo credit: Ken Blaze – USA Today Sports
