This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s slate.
Jacob deGrom: Pitcher, Mets
Paying all the way up for deGrom could be the path of least resistance, and he is much more affordable on FanDuel with his 99% Bargain Rating. The opposing Marlins are implied for a slate-low 2.8 runs, and his K/9 of 10.79 is the top mark among all of today’s pitchers. Unsurprisingly, he sports a slate-leading 9.0 K Prediction. Historically, pitchers with comparably strong Vegas data and K Predictions have had high ownership, but they’ve also smashed on FanDuel (per the Trends tool):
Before you check in on deGrom’s Statcast data, make sure you have an extra pair of pants ready. He boasts an absurd recent batted-ball distance of 176 feet, exit velocity of 84 miles per hour, and hard-hit rate of 21%. Those numbers trounce his 12-month averages, giving him differentials of -18 feet, -4 mph, and -7 percentage points. deGrom is absolutely dealing lately, but his long-term 1.127 WHIP also inspires a ton of confidence, and the Marlins have a slate-low .287 wOBA.
David Price: Pitcher, Red Sox
If you’re looking to pivot off deGrom (or lock in your SP2 on DraftKings) Price is an option, as he’s $2,500 and $4,400 cheaper on FanDuel and DraftKings and facing a projected Rays lineup with a slate-worst 29.8% strikeout rate over the past 12 months. The Rays also have the third-lowest implied run total today (per our Vegas Dashboard):
Price’s 8.4 K Prediction is solid, and he also has strong recent Statcast data with a batted-ball distance of 201 feet, an exit velocity of 87 miles per hour, and hard-hit rate of 24%. On a slate in which deGrom’s price is somewhat restrictive for lineup construction, Price will be chalky despite the Rays’ high .335 wOBA against left-handed pitching because of his significant strikeout upside and solid Statcast numbers.
Didi Gregorius: Shortstop, Yankees
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top five-man DraftKings stack in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Yankees, who are implied for a slate-high 5.8 runs:
The projected Yankees lineup absolutely destroys right-handed pitching, boasting a slate-leading .367 wOBA, and Rangers righty Doug Fister owns a mediocre 1.437 WHIP over the past year.
One player who especially stands out for New York is Didi Gregorius, projected to hit cleanup. His .180 ISO differential is the fourth-highest mark on the slate, and his Statcast differentials over the past 15 days are also notable, as he sports a distance differential of +12 feet, velocity differential of +3 mph, and hard-hit differential of +9 percentage points. His +60 Recent Batted Ball Luck suggests that he is hitting the ball better than his short-term fantasy production indicates, and batters with comparable implied totals, lineup spots, and recent Statcast differentials have historically averaged 10.04 DraftKings points with a +1.32 Plus/Minus and 17% Upside Rating.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more baseball coverage!
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Jacob deGrom
Photo credit: Adam Hagy-USA TODAY Sports
