The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features an early slate that begins on DraftKings and FanDuel at 1:10 p.m. ET. The 10-game main slate starts at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
On FanDuel, there are just two pitchers who cost $10,000 or more:
Justin Verlander checks in as the top-priced pitcher. The projected Giants lineup hasn’t struck out often against righties often over the past 12 months with just a 22.4% strikeout rate. However, this is still a solid spot for Verlander. The Astros are the largest favorite on the day (-247 moneyline odds), and the Giants are implied for a minuscule 2.9 runs. Further, Verlander has excellent recent batted-ball data, allowing an 87-mph exit velocity and 25% hard-hit rate. Historically, pitchers with comparable K Predictions, salaries, and Vegas data have been excellent investments (per our Trends tool):
On the main slate, Jacob deGrom is the only FanDuel pitcher to cost more than $10,000, but he may be worth every penny. deGrom is coming off a monster 13-strikeout game against the Diamondbacks, and now he takes on an underwhelming Marlins team. Over the past 12 months, the projected Marlins lineup owns a 25.9% strikeout rate along with a poor .287 weighted on-base average (wOBA) against righties. deGrom’s recent batted-ball data is also elite, as he’s allowed an average distance of 176 feet, exit velocity of 84 mph, and hard-hit rate of 21% over his past two starts. Overall, deGrom checks in with the main slate’s best K Prediction (9.0), opponent implied run total (2.9), and moneyline odds (-200). Pitchers with comparable salaries, K Predictions, and Vegas data have historically dominated:
Values
On the early slate, Michael Wacha is likely the best bet as the next option behind Verlander. The projected Royals lineup has a 29.9% strikeout rate and putrid .275 wOBA against righties over the past 12 months. Wacha boasts a solid 7.2 K Prediction, and the Cardinals are sizeable -180 moneyline favorites. Wacha has also allowed a recent average distance of 172 feet, which represents a differential of -29 feet when compared to his 12-month average.
David Price is sporting an 82% Bargain Rating on FanDuel. He has been sporadic this season, averaging a -1.22 FanDuel Plus/Minus, but his recent batted-ball data has been great with an 87-mph exit velocity and 24% hard-hit rate. Overall, Price is in a decent spot, given that he owns an 8.3 K Prediction and the Red Sox are -129 moneyline favorites.
Kenta Maeda is more of a value on FanDuel with his 87% Bargain Rating, but he’s still a viable mid-tier pitcher on DraftKings. Maeda has just a 50% Consistency Rating this season, but he’s in a good spot. The Rockies have an underwhelming .291 wOBA against righties over the past 12 months, and they’re implied for just 3.3 runs. Further, Maeda boasts a solid 7.3 K Prediction, and the Dodgers are -165 moneyline favorites. It’s also worth noting that Maeda historically has extreme home/road splits, even when he’s a favorite. Fortunately, Maeda is at home tonight:
Fastballs
Chris Archer is a slight underdog against the Red Sox (+119 moneyline odds), but he’s an intriguing tournament option on DraftKings with a 93% Bargain Rating. Archer’s 10.51 SO/9 over the past 12 months is the second-best mark on the slate, and the Red Sox are implied for 4.0 runs, which isn’t an overly intimidating total. However, the matchup is tough in that the projected Red Sox lineup has only a 21.3% strikeout rate and excellent .339 wOBA against righties over the past year. Archer owns just a 56% Consistency Rating this season, but if you’re looking to save some salary at the position then Archer warrants attention.
Jake Arrieta has solid recent batted-ball data with a 193-foot average distance and 87-mph exit velocity, and he owns a 74% Bargain Rating on DraftKings. His 5.7 K Prediction leaves much to be desired, but the Phillies check in as -125 moneyline favorites, and the opposing Braves are implied for just 3.8 runs. Pitchers with comparable salaries, batted-ball metrics, and Vegas data have historically averaged a +1.65 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top five-man early-slate DraftKings stack in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Cardinals, who are implied for 4.7 runs. Their Team Value Rating of 79 is the second-best mark on the early slate:
The Cardinals will square off against Royals pitcher Jake Junis, who has allowed a lot of significant contact lately with a 94-mph exit velocity and massive 55% hard-hit rate. Hitters with similar implied totals facing pitchers with comparable batted-ball data have historically averaged a +1.03 DraftKings Plus/Minus. Matt Carpenter‘s fantasy production has been spotty this season (-0.43 DraftKings Plus/Minus), but he’s still a solid value with an 81% Bargain Rating. Further, he’ll be on the positive side of his wOBA and isolated power (ISO) splits, as he boasts a .361 wOBA and .219 ISO against righties over the past 12 months. Carpenter possesses some of the best batted-ball data on the early slate with his 249-foot average distance, 95-mph exit velocity, and 59% hard-hit rate.
The top four-man main-slate FanDuel stack in the Recent Batted Ball Model belongs to the Pirates, who are implied for 4.9 runs:
Overall, it’s an excellent matchup for the Pirates against Reds pitcher Homer Bailey, who has been atrocious over the past 12 months with his 1.70 WHIP, 1.47 HR/9, and 6.34 SO/9. Bailey has allowed five or more earned runs in three of his past four starts. Projected to hit from the No. 6 spot, Colin Moran went yard last night, and he’s been swinging a hot bat over the past 10 games, averaging a +1.92 FanDuel Plus/Minus with 60% Consistency. Moran is in excellent form with a +28-foot distance differential over the past 15 days. Francisco Cervelli has also crushed the ball recently with distance and hard-hit differentials of +39 feet and +16 percentage points.
Other Batters
On the early slate, the Twins own the best Team Value Rating on DraftKings. Overall, it’s a great spot for their 1-5 hitters, as they all possess exceptional power against righties:
Sprinkling in the Cardinals and Twins would gain you exposure to both high implied totals and excellent values, allowing you to target some of the high-priced batters elsewhere.
People love home-run hitters, but base stealers also possess value. Trea Turner has averaged an excellent .397 stolen bases per game over the past year, and he’s on the positive side of his splits with a .369 wOBA and .179 ISO against righties over the same time period. Turner is in solid batted-ball form, boasting positive differentials in average distance (+29 feet), exit velocity (+2-mph), and hard-hit rate (+18-percentage points). Historically, hitters with comparable stolen base averages, lineup spot, and implied totals have averaged a +1.47 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
Joey Votto is affordable on DraftKings, possessing a 70% Bargain Rating. It’s a good spot for the Reds, as they’re implied for 4.7 runs. Votto is on the positive side of his splits, and he has crushed righties with a .440 wOBA and .213 ISO over the past 12 months, as has teammate Scooter Gennett with his .392 wOBA and .255 ISO. Additionally, Gennett owns a +12-foot distance differential over the past 15 days.
Didi Gregorius is in a massive slump, averaging a -7.43 FanDuel Plus/Minus over his past 10 games. As a result, his salary has dipped to $3,800 on FanDuel. The Yankees are implied for a massive 5.8 runs against Rangers pitcher Doug Fister, who has allowed a .206 ISO to opposing batters over the past 15 days. Didi has smashed righties over the past 12 months with a .375 wOBA and .284 ISO. Overall, Gregorius has swung the bat well recently, as he owns positive differentials in average distance, exit velocity, and hard-hit rate. The fantasy output hasn’t been there, but his +30 Recent Batted Ball Luck (RBBL) suggests that he has been unlucky. Teammate Aaron Judge is on the positive side of his splits, with an absurd .433 wOBA and .339 ISO against righties over the past year. And he’s smoking the baseball with a 243-foot average distance, 97-mph exit velocity, and 55% hard-hit rate.
Rhys Hoskins was just $3,600 on DraftKings last night for some reason, but now he’s $4,100. However, he still has a 70% Bargain Rating. Additionally, Hoskins has crushed lefties over the past 12 months to the tune of a .401 wOBA and .269 ISO. His +44 RBBL suggests that progression could be headed his way.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Didi Gregorius
Photo credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
