The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Both DraftKings and FanDuel are offering $100,000 first-place prizes in their largest one-game guaranteed prize pools for Monday’s Game 4 of the “Western Conference” Finals between the Golden State Warriors and Houston Rockets at 9 p.m. ET.
If you’re not familiar, DraftKings’ one-game contests feature six-man rosters, a $50,000 cap, and no scoring multipliers, while FanDuel’s feature five-man rosters, a $60,000 cap, and scoring multipliers for whichever player you designate as the MVP (2x), Star (1.5x), and Pro (1.2x). FanDuel’s multipliers introduce more lineup combinations and should help to limit some of the all-too-common ties that occur in these contests, while DraftKings’ lack of multipliers increases the likelihood of ties and therefore provides extra incentive to go contrarian in other ways, such as by taking a player projected for extremely low ownership or by leaving salary on the table.
Houston Rockets at Golden State Warriors (-8.5) | O/U: 225.5
9 p.m. ET | TNT
Warriors (117 implied points)
Fresh off a 41-point, “Remember us? We’re still the defending champs even though we weren’t the No. 1 seed” thrashing of the Rockets in Game 3, the trends suggest little reason for a letdown: When favored by six or more points in the playoffs under Steve Kerr, the Warriors have gone 45-3, per The Action Network’s Bet Labs database.
Stephen Curry busted out of his regression-screaming, injury-narrative-fueled 2-of-13 three-point shooting slump in Games 1-2 with a 5-of-12 effort from downtown en route to 35 points in Game 3. And Curry isn’t likely done going off; since Kevin Durant joined the team, Curry’s been the one to play above and beyond expectations in Oracle (per our NBA Trends tool):
(DraftKings)
Steve Kerr told The Action Network’s Matt Moore that the team will continue to try to get Curry open looks (duh) because the key is that it takes just one. The biggest risk with Curry is if Houston finds a way to continue ruthlessly attacking him on defense and he gets into foul trouble, but Golden State was able to make some adjustments to counter that in Game 3, and Curry has as good a chance as any to finish as the top option. He owns the top median projection in our NBA Models.
Kevin Durant is averaging 33.3 points per game in this series but has been a frustrating fantasy play because he’s only managed a total of 12 rebounds, seven assists, one steal, and one block through three games. It doesn’t look like Houston can stop Durant (who can?), so he retains his usage upside if he could just get some positive peripheral-stat variance. Game 3 provided promise, as Durant notched a series-high six rebounds and six assists while scoring “just” 25 points. Trevor Ariza has had the most luck defending Durant, limiting him to 20 points on 82 possessions, but with all the switching that goes on, Ariza’s been on Durant for approximately only one-third of his possessions.
After averaging 11.2 field-goal attempts in Round 1 and 11.0 in Round 2, Draymond Green has attempted only 6.3 per game through three games of this series. In six combined regular and postseason games against Houston, Green is yet to attempt double-digit field goals. He’s always capable of a triple-double and did pull down 17 boards in Game 3, but the data suggests he’ll need more to go right than usual against Houston to bring about an eruption.
Klay Thompson isn’t easy to reliably forecast — he’s almost wholly reliant on shooting. One thing that does tend to be reliable, though, is regression, and Klay is a better shooter than his 9-of-25 showing over the past two games would indicate, and it wouldn’t be surprising if his Game 4 line more closely resembled Game 1’s 28 points on 9-of-18 shooting. Because his primary defender is James Harden, Thompson’s Opponent Plus/Minus is the highest on the team.
Andre Iguodala (bruised leg) has been upgraded to questionable, and it’s possible that he plays through the pain. If so, his ability to contribute in every stat category will provide some nice upside at what will likely be low ownership due to the injury. If Iguodala sits, Kevon Looney is likely to see a few more minutes after playing just 27 combined in Games 2-3. Looney scores around 0.8 fantasy points per minute, but if Iguodala sits, be aware that along with Looney’s value will come high ownership.
Iguodala sitting would also be good news for Nick Young and Jordan Bell. Young has played between 15 and 18 minutes in each game of this series and has the requisite 3-point-shooting ability to give him upside at $3,200 on DraftKings in that amount of playing time. Bell played a series-high 10 minutes in Game 3, and the athleticism he brings to the center position makes him better suited for this matchup than David West, who’s failed to log more than six minutes in a game yet in the series.
Shaun Livingston has played 14-18 minutes in each game of the series and can also provide some relatively low-owned upside. He attempted nine field goals in 16 minutes in Game 3.
Rockets (108.5 implied points)
James Harden has been setting a high bar right off the bat in each playoff series, then failing to clear it the rest of the way. He’s averaged 42.0 points in Game 1s but just 24.0 in all other games, and his scoring output in this series has gone 41, 27, 20. He’s been a bit better coming off a loss, though, with an average of 29.3 points in three games. With the odds stacked against Houston and Harden’s troubling trends, he should be viewed as a bit more boom-or-bust than the other studs. Per the Trends tool, he’s averaged a -2.65 Plus/Minus and 33% Consistency on DraftKings when the Rockets are underdogs this season — but his ceiling projection in our NBA Models is the highest on the slate.
Chris Paul has distanced himself from Clint Capela as the second-highest-upside Rocket. While Capela has struggled with Golden State’s demand for court-spacing, averaging just 10.0 points and 8.0 rebounds in only 27.4 minutes per game, Paul has remained solid in his first trip to the conference finals with averages of 15.7 points, 8.3 rebounds, 4.3 assists, and 2.4 steals plus blocks. For roster construction purposes, note that Paul and Harden are negatively correlated.
After scoring just 23 points combined in Game 3, Eric Gordon, P.J. Tucker, and Trevor Ariza will all need to step up if Houston hopes to even the series. Due to his scoring prowess, Gordon has the highest projected ceiling among the three in our NBA Models by over five points, and he’s especially attractive on FanDuel, where he’s the same price as Tucker and only $500 more than Ariza. Tucker has displayed more upside than Ariza throughout these playoffs, and Ariza is best suited for DraftKings, where he’s $1,900 less than Gordon and $900 less than Ariza.
Head coach Mike D’Antoni’s rotation likely won’t extend much further than the aforementioned six players, but Gerald Green is the next man up, having played 15-20 minutes in each game of the series thus far. He’s a high-upside play at a salary of only $6,500 on FanDuel and $2,800 on DraftKings.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA News Feed.
Pictured above: Stephen Curry
Photo credit: Kelley L Cox – USA TODAY Sports
