Baseball is back! Check back here throughout the day for updated blurbs as teams confirm their lineup. We’ll keep you updated on some of the day’s highest-impact trends by utilizing our Models and Vegas dashboard. Projected and confirmed lineups for every game can be found on our MLB Daily Lineups page.
Pirates (-114) at Reds (+105) — 7:10 PM EST
Reds out: Jesse Winker
Reds in: Adam Duvall
Jesse Winker will receive a day off, so Adam Duvall will start in left field and bat seventh for a Reds lineup currently implied to score a respectable 4.7 runs. The Reds’ implied run total has increased 0.5 runs since the line opened — which has resulted in positive reverse line movement — and both offenses could benefit from estimated wind gusts of eight miles per hour blowing out to center. Tucker Barnhart will bat second for the first time in his career and is positioned well against righty Jameson Taillon, who ranks among the main slate’s bottom-five pitchers in average batted ball distance and fly-ball rate allowed over the past 15 days. Barnhart, Joey Votto, Scooter Gennett, and Eugenio Suarez form the team’s highest-rated four-man stack in the Bales Model on DraftKings, where each has a projected ownership rate of just 2-4%. The Pirates-Reds’ matchup currently boasts the second-most hitter-friendly Weather Rating in Tuesday’s main slate.
Marlins (+106) at Mets (-115) — 7:10 PM EST
Mets out: Devin Mesoraco (left elbow contusion)
Mets in: Tomas Nido
The Mets are without Devin Mesoraco due to a contusion on his left elbow, although the injury is considered minor and he’s available to play. Thomas Nido will catch and bat seventh. The Mets will order Brandon Nimmo, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Wilmer Flores atop the lineup and are currently implied to score just 3.6 runs against the Marlins – if they’re able to even get the game in. Be sure to monitor the weather, as current forecasts call for an estimated 56% chance of precipitation at game time. Neither lineup is very appealing regardless of the weather, as each team ranks among the main slate’s bottom-five lineups in combined wOBA over the past 12 months. Still, each pitcher should be approached with caution given the aforementioned weather concerns. Amed Rosario and Jose Reyes are the only Mets with positive ISO and wOBA splits vs. southpaws over the past calendar year.
Yankees (-157) at Rangers (+145) — 8:05 PM EST
Rangers out: Delino DeShields
Rangers in: Ryan Rua
Delino DeShields won’t start for a Rangers team presently implied to score 4.2 runs against the Yankees and right-hander Domingo German. Shin-Soo Choo will bat leadoff, and Ryan Rua will replace DeShields in centerfield while batting ninth. Rua actually leads the Rangers with eight DraftKings Pro Trends, but his recent three-game performance is skewing his credentials. Hitters at Globe Life Park in Arlington have the top Weather Rating on the slate, but German could prove suitable as a cheap SP2 option as he ranks third among pitchers with a 7.8 K Prediction. He has yet to throw more than 84 pitches in an outing this season, but he’s facing a lineup with a combined 0.299 SO/AB rate — the second-highest mark. The eighth and ninth hitters in the Rangers lineup are the only ones with a positive batted-ball distance differential or exit velocity differential, and German costs only $6,600 on DraftKings.
Royals (+200) at Cardinals (-219) — 8:15 PM EST
Cardinals out: Tommy Pham
Cardinals in: Tyler O’Neill
Tommy Pham will receive a day off after hitting leadoff and playing center field in the previous 11 games. Dexter Fowler will move up to the leadoff role while Tyler O’Neill remains in the lineup for the fourth straight game, as he has accumulated seven hits in his last 12 at-bats. The Cardinals are one of five teams presently implied to score at least 5.0 runs, and they lead all teams in Team Value Rating on DraftKings (92) and FanDuel (93). Four of the top-five hitters all have at least five DraftKings Pro Trends, and that quintet is among the highest-rated stacks in the Bales Model. Royals’ right-hander Jason Hammel has allowed at least five earned runs in three of his last four outings, and his struggles have been more pronounced on the road.
Mariners (+121) at Athletics (-131) — 10:05 PM EST
Athletics out: Khris Davis (strained right groin)
Athletics in: Mark Canha
Khris Davis suffered a strained right groin during Sunday’s game, and he’s going to miss Tuesday’s match against the Mariners. Matt Joyce will handle the designated hitter duties as the leadoff hitter, Matt Olson will bat cleanup in Davis’ customary spot, and Mark Canha will move into the outfield rotation. Joyce and Olson lead the Athletics in wOBA differential, and six batters hitters in the order have a recent fly ball rate of at least 40%. However, the Athletics are implied to score 4.6 runs and Mariners starter Mike Leake has generated a 57% ground ball rate in his last two starts despite allowing 15 combined hits and two homers. Joyce is a relatively cheap leadoff hitter at $2,900 on FanDuel, but his upside is capped against a ground-ball pitcher combined with a Park Factor of eight.
