This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s slate.
Gio Gonzalez: Pitcher, Nationals
If you don’t want to pay all the way up for Zack Greinke on Monday, consider instead Gonzalez, who is a much better value on FanDuel with a 99% Bargain Rating. Only the Rockies (3.2 runs) have a lower implied team total than the opposing Padres (3.3), and Gonzalez’s moneyline odds of -170 make him a significant favorite. Historically, pitchers with comparable salaries, moneyline odds, and opponent implied team totals have been strong values on FanDuel (per our Trends tool):
Gonzalez is a solid pitcher with a 1.198 WHIP, 0.612 HR/9, and 9.273 SO/9 over the past 12 months. He’s in an excellent matchup against a projected Padres lineup that has a high 28.1% strikeout rate and a middling .306 weighted on-base average (wOBA) against left-handed pitchers over the past year. Gonzalez also has solid Statcast data, including a batted-ball distance of 193 feet, exit velocity of 86 miles per hour, and fly-ball and hard-hit rates of 30% and 36%.
Matt Carpenter: Second/Third Baseman, Cardinals
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. In this nine-game slate, the top five-man DraftKings stack in the Batted Ball Model belongs to the Cardinals, implied for 5.1 runs (per our Vegas Dashboard):
St. Louis will be chalky at home against Kansas pitcher Ian Kennedy, who has some of the slate’s worst Statcast data with a recent batted-ball distance of 232 feet, exit velocity of 92 miles per hour, and fly ball rate of 54%. On top of his brutal Statcast data, Kennedy owns a bottom-two 2.061 HR/9.
Matt Carpenter, projected to hit second, is one of the highest-rated batters in the slate, with immaculate Statcast data and a Recent Batted Ball Luck (RBBL) of +67. Historically, batters with comparable lineup spots, implied team totals, and Statcast data have produced a Plus/Minus of +1.58.
Brian Dozier: First Baseman, Twins
There are three teams implied for at least 5.0 runs on Monday. Of that group, the Twins offer the most value on DraftKings with their Team Value Rating of 87:
Minnesota is experiencing some negative reverse line movement this morning, but Dozier is still in a good spot against Tigers left-hander Blaine Hardy, who owns a slate-low 2.273 WHIP and bottom-three 2.045 HR/9 over the last 12 months. Although Hardy’s Statcast data is decent — he has a low recent batted-ball distance of just 179 feet — he’s also allowed batters to get the ball in the air with a 52% fly-ball rate. Dozier is on the positive side of his wOBA and ISO splits, sporting an elite .438 wOBA and .293 ISO against righties over the past year.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more baseball coverage!
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Matt Carpenter
Photo credit: Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports
