The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Both DraftKings and FanDuel are offering $100,000 first-place prizes in their largest one-game guaranteed prize pools for Monday’s Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Finals between the Boston Celtics and Cleveland Cavaliers at 8:30 p.m. ET.
If you’re not familiar, DraftKings’ one-game contests feature six-man rosters, a $50,000 cap, and no scoring multipliers, while FanDuel’s feature five-man rosters, a $60,000 cap, and scoring multipliers for whichever player you designate as the MVP (2x), Star (1.5x), and Pro (1.2x). FanDuel’s multipliers introduce more lineup combinations and should help to limit some of the all-too-common ties that occur in these contests, while DraftKings’ lack of multipliers increases the likelihood of ties and therefore provides extra incentive to go contrarian in other ways, such as by taking a player projected for extremely low ownership or by leaving salary on the table.
Boston Celtics at Cleveland Cavaliers (-6.5) | O/U: 206.5
8:30 p.m. ET | ESPN
Cavaliers (106.5 implied points)
While the Cavs have routinely fallen short of expectations as a home favorite this season, going 13-30-1 (30.2%), third-worst in the NBA, LeBron James has not, averaging a +3.37 Plus/Minus and 70% Consistency on DraftKings in such situations, per our NBA Trends tool. LeBron had one of his “get my teammates involved” games in Game 3, scoring 27 points and dishing 12 assists while attempting only 12 field goals. Anytime The King has attempted 17 field goals or less during these playoffs, he’s come back with at least 24 attempts in the next game. More good news: In Game 3, LeBron was finally able to break through for 14 points in 29 possessions on primary defender Marcus Morris, who had limited him to 22 points on 72 possessions in Games 1-2.
Kevin Love hasn’t beaten expectations as a home favorite like his regal team leader, averaging a DraftKings Plus/Minus of 0 this season. But if Love simply hits expectation, it would still make him the second-highest scoring player on the slate; he’s averaging 17.3 points, 12.3 rebounds, and 3.3 assists per game in the series. Love has struggled to score on Al Horford in this series (19 points on 101 possessions), but the presence of Tristan Thompson at the 5 has allowed Love to avoid Horford just enough to put up respectable scoring totals.
Since entering the starting lineup, Thompson is averaging 9.0 points and 7.0 rebounds without a block or steal in 26.1 minutes per game in his two starts — pedestrian numbers that have kept his salary from rising too much. His unrealized upside relative to cost makes him one of the top plays in his salary range.
The perimeter rotation of George Hill, J.R. Smith, and Kyle Korver all rely on shooting to hit value, so they’re in ideal spots at home where role players tend to shoot better. Hill and Smith project for minutes in the 30s while Korver projects for minutes in the 20s, but our NBA Models have all three players projected closely in terms of fantasy points, making Smith the best value on DraftKings, where, at $3,400, he’s the cheapest of the three, and Korver a bargain on FanDuel, where he’s the cheapest at $8,000.
Larry Nance Jr. has worked his way back into head coach Tyronn Lue’s big-man rotation, playing 11 minutes in Game 2 and 21 minutes in Game 3. Recency bias from Nance’s stat-filled outing in Game 3 (eight points, six rebounds, three assists, and three steals) and his rising salary enter him into consideration for a fade candidate, however.
On the other hand, Jeff Green has been quiet in this series, failing to top six points or two rebounds in a game despite playing between 18 and 27 minutes in each contest. Green tends to perform better on the road, but with his salary dropping to just $2,700 on DraftKings and $500 above the minimum on FanDuel, he’s a worthwhile punt play.
The rest of the Cavs rotation — Rodney Hood, Cedi Osman, Jose Calderon, and Ante Zizic — have all played a few minutes here or there in the series but will only be garbage-time relevant.
Celtics (100 implied points)
Whereas the Cavs have routinely fallen short of expectations as a home favorite, the Celtics have managed to exceed expectations as a road underdog, going 13-9 (59.1%) against-the-spread despite an 8-14 overall record. In terms of daily fantasy value, that’s translated most to Aron Baynes and Jayson Tatum, who have posted 60% and 55% Consistency Ratings on DraftKings, respectively, in such situations this season. However, Baynes is averaging a solid 8.0 points and 6.0 rebounds in 20.4 minutes per game in the series but is coming off a series-low 17 minutes in Game 3, and Tatum, per our NBA On/Off tool, is averaging 0.94 DraftKings points per minute with Jaylen Brown off the floor but 0.80 with him on. Brown has edged Tatum in this series with averages of 16.5 points and 4.0 rebounds per game to Tatum’s 14.5 and 2.0, respectively, but their upside is similar enough that Tatum can be viewed as the better value on DraftKings, where he’s $1,400 cheaper than Brown, while Brown can be viewed as the better value on FanDuel, where he’s $500 cheaper than Tatum.
Both Marcus Morris and Marcus Smart carry mid-range price tags that make them slightly better projected values than Boston’s other main rotation players. Morris is averaging 10.5 points and 5.0 rebounds in 29.9 minutes per game in this series, and Smart is at 9.0 points and 7.5 assists in 28.7 minutes. Morris logged only 26 minutes in Game 3 due to the blowout but will likely be back over 30 again in Game 4 if it stays close.
Coming into the series, Al Horford had historically struggled on offense against Thompson, and things have continued to play out that way through three games. In a team-leading 87 possessions against Horford, Thompson has allowed the 11-year vet out of Florida to attempt just six field goals and score nine points. After scoring 20 points in Game 1, Horford was limited to 15 in Game 2 and seven in Game 3 with Thompson in the starting lineup. It would take a significant reversal of fortune offensively (or some outlier peripheral stats) for Horford to live up to his third-highest salary on the slate.
Another player who could use a reversal of fortune is Terry Rozier, who per the Trends tool has averaged a +2.91 Plus/Minus at home but a -1.78 Plus/Minus on the road on DraftKings this season. Unlike Horford, though, the sites are giving a discount to take on the risk that is Rozier, and his ability to score, rebound, and assist gives him decent upside at his price point across the industry.
Semi Ojeleye has seen anywhere from nine to 20 minutes in this series, but the defensive-minded rookie has been fantasy-point averse and is nothing more than a dart throw at $1,300 on DraftKings.
Greg Monroe has been seeing minutes with the second unit as Boston tries to take advantage of Nance defensively, and he has some efficiency-based upside since he’s capable of scoring well over a fantasy point per minute.
The rest of the rotation consists of Guerschon Yabusele, Abdel Nader, and possibly Shane Larkin (shoulder, questionable), none of whom are guaranteed to see the floor in Game 4.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA News Feed.
Pictured above: Al Horford (42) and LeBron James (23)
Photo credit: Winslow Townson – USA TODAY Sports
