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Both DraftKings and FanDuel are offering $100,000 first-place prizes in their largest one-game guaranteed prize pools for Sunday’s Game 3 of the Western Conference Finals between the Houston Rockets and the Golden State Warriors.
If you’re not familiar, DraftKings’ one-game contests feature six-man rosters, a $50,000 cap, and no scoring multipliers, while FanDuel’s feature five-man rosters with multipliers for whichever player you designate as the MVP (2x), Star (1.5x), and Pro (1.2x). FanDuel’s multipliers introduce more lineup combinations and should help to limit some of the all-too-common ties that occur in these contests, while DraftKings’ lack of multipliers increases the likelihood of ties and therefore provides extra incentive to go contrarian in other ways, such as by taking a player projected for low ownership or by leaving salary on the table.
Houston Rockets at Golden State Warriors (-7.5) | O/U: 226
8 p.m. ET | TNT
Warriors (116.75 implied points)
The Rockets throttled the Warriors in Game 2 to even the series at 1-1 as it moves to Golden State. However, the Warriors are 7.5-point favorites despite the blowout loss and are currently receiving 65% of the bets for Game 3.
Ultimately, the Warriors haven’t looked like their dominant selves recently due to the poor shooting numbers of Stephen Curry. He’s shot just 2-of-13 from 3-point range to start the series, leaving some to question if he’s still recovering from the knee injury that caused him to miss 16 games. Getting him going in Game 3 seems like priority number one for the Warriors. Luckily, Steph has been a much better shooter when playing at home throughout his career. He’s shot 48.5% from the field and 44.4% from 3-point range at home, and as a result, he’s averaged nearly two additional fantasy points per game when playing at the Oracle (per our NBA Trends tool):
Curry seems like a prime candidate for positive regression, assuming that he’s close to full strength.
Kevin Durant has averaged 37.5 points through the first two games of the series, but he’s still posted an average Plus/Minus of -8.51 on DraftKings. The poor fantasy scoring stems from a lack of peripheral statistics, as Durant has tallied just six total rebounds and one total assist in those contests. He averaged 6.8 rebounds and 5.4 assists per game during the regular season, and he’s playing approximately three additional minutes per game during the playoffs. He’s another member of the Warriors who could be due for positive regression.
Draymond Green has also struggled in this series, posting a negative Plus/Minus in each of the first two games. His issue hasn’t been a lack of peripherals (he’s actually done really well in that department) but rather his average usage rate of just 12.1%, which represents a decrease of almost five percentage points when compared to his postseason average of 16.9%. What makes that even more surprising is that he crushed the Rockets during the regular season over the past two years with a +9.6 average Plus/Minus and 87.5% Consistency on DraftKings. Green’s salary has also decreased over the past few games, making him yet another member of the Warriors who could be due for a spike in performance.
Klay Thompson rounds out the big four for the Warriors, and he’s typically the most volatile producer of the group. He’s demonstrated that volatility through the first two games of this series, scoring 40.8 FanDuel points in Game 1 but just 19.4 FanDuel points in Game 2. Thompson may just have the best individual matchup among all of the Warriors’ starters against James Harden, against whom he has exceeded his per-100-possession scoring average by 6.0 points during the series. Thompson’s FanDuel Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.22 is the top mark among all of the Warriors’ starters.
The fifth starter for the Warriors is still yet to be determined. Andre Iguodala has started each of the first two games, but there is some speculation that Kevon Looney could replace him for Game 3. Looney has posted a Net Rating of +7.8 through the first two games of this series and has been extremely effective on the defensive end, holding Clint Capela to 9.9 points below his per-100 scoring average. Looney has averaged 0.88 fantasy points per minute on the season, which makes him appealing at his current salary across the industry. Regardless of what happens with the starting lineup, Iguodala should also remain a staple in the Warriors rotation. However, he’s averaged fewer fantasy points per minute than Looney over the course of the full season and the past month and is currently priced more expensively on both sites.
Rounding out the Warriors’ rotation are Shaun Livingston, Nick Young, and David West. West has been the most productive among the three on a per-minute basis, but his role in this series has been limited with both teams looking to play small. Livingston is the safest bet for minutes, but he’s a minimal-impact type of player, though at $2,000 on DraftKings he could be a viable way to fit in multiple studs. Young might have the most upside of the group given his ability to shoot the 3-pointer; he’s made at least two in each of the first two games and has played at least 15 minutes in each game.
Rockets (109.25 implied points)
The Rockets offense disappointed in Game 1 but got back on track in Game 2, posting 127.9 points per 100 possessions. The big question is if they can carry that production with them on the road.
What makes their Game 2 production even more impressive is that they did it despite a relatively poor game from James Harden, who shot just 9-of-24 from the field and 3-of-15 from 3-point range, scoring just 42.5 DraftKings points. That said, it’s hard to imagine him having two straight poor shooting games in a row, He leads all players in our NBA Models in both median and ceiling projection.
Chris Paul also disappointed in Game 2, posting a Plus/Minus of -6.15 on FanDuel. Paul also appeared to injure his calf late in the game but is reportedly dealing with no lingering effects heading into Game 3. Paul’s average of 1.25 FanDuel points per minute over the past month trails only Harden on today’s slate, but he’s priced as just the fourth-most-expensive option on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Paul will likely command lower ownership than both Curry and Durant, making him an intriguing target.
The main reason for the Rockets’ offensive explosion in Game 2 was the shooting of Trevor Ariza and PJ Tucker. They were a combined 15-of-18 from the field, which is obviously unsustainable moving forward. Both players have seen price increases and will likely see a boost in ownership after their dominant performances, which makes them prime fade candidates on today’s slate.
The Warriors have made a decision through the first two games to stay glued to Clint Capela on the pick and roll, which has limited his impact in this series. Capela makes his living by finishing lob passes from Harden and Paul, but the Warriors have held him to just 10 total field goal attempts through the first two games, and unless they drastically change their strategy going forward, he seems overpriced across the industry.
Eric Gordon busted out of his shooting slump in a big way in Game 2, scoring 39.6 FanDuel points on 8-of-15 shooting. Unlike Ariza and Tucker, Gordon has been an important part of the offense for the majority of the season, so it’s more feasible that he can keep his production going. Gordon’s usage rate of 24.7% ranked third on the team during the regular season, and he’s played at least 32.5 minutes in each of the first two games.
The Rockets seem likely to let those six players handle the majority of the minutes moving forward, but Gerald Green could also have a minor role. Green has averaged a solid 0.82 fantasy points per minute over the course of the season, mostly thanks to his ability to shoot the ball from deep, and he could make some sense at $2,400 on DraftKings.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA News Feed.
Pictured above (from left): Draymond Green and Stephen Curry
Photo credit: Cary Edmondson – USA Today Sports
