The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable player.
Friday features an excellent 15-game main slate at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
On FanDuel, there are two pitchers who break the $10,000 mark:
Max Scherzer leads all pitchers in K Prediction (11), Vegas odds (-213), and opponent implied run total (2.8). Scherzer has been dominant this year, averaging a +17.36 FanDuel Plus/Minus with 89% Consistency. Overall, he draws a favorable matchup against a projected Dodgers lineup that owns a 25.3% strikeout rate and paltry .303 weighted on-base average (wOBA) against righties over the past 12 months. Scherzer is as close to a sure thing as there ever is in DFS given his start-to-start consistency and strikeout potential every time he steps on the mound. Historically, pitchers with comparable Vegas data and salaries have crushed salary-based expectations (per our Trends tool):
In his last start (May 13) Jacob deGrom lasted just one inning before being pulled. There was speculation he was pulled because he re-injured his elbow, but the Mets claim that it was strictly precautionary (there was an hour-long rain delay) and that he’s ready to pitch against the Diamondbacks today. On the plus side, the Mets are -162 moneyline favorites, and the Diamondbacks are implied for just 3.2 runs. Overall, it’s an excellent matchup for deGrom, as the projected Diamondbacks lineup owns a robust 30% strikeout rate and poor .294 wOBA against righties over the past 12 months. deGrom has the slate’s second-best K Prediction (8.9), and he also has the benefit of pitching at home, where he has dominated since 2014:
At the time of writing, there is projected rain for both the Dodgers-Nationals and Diamondbacks-Mets games. Be sure to monitor their statuses up until lineup lock.
Values
Charlie Morton is more of a value on a FanDuel, where he owns a 98% Bargain Rating. Morton enters the game in good recent form with a 188-foot average distance and 88-mph exit velocity. Overall, his Vegas data is solid as the Astros are -168 favorites against an Indians team implied for 3.5 runs. That said, Morton likely lacks upside in this matchup (6.5 K Prediction), as the projected Indians lineup owns just a 20.7% strikeout rate and an excellent .332 wOBA against righties over the past 12 months. Historically, pitchers with comparable K Predictions and Vegas data have been solid but not spectacular:
Sean Newcomb has been terrific this season:
Newcomb’s 10.11 SO/9 over the past 12 months ranks fourth on the slate, trailing only the pitchers mentioned above. Further, he enters this game with some of the best recent batted-ball data on the slate, sporting a 180-foot average distance, 88-mph exit velocity, and 19% hard-hit rate. The primary issue with Newcomb is that he can get into trouble with walks (1.46 WHIP over the past 12 months). That said, he has a favorable matchup against a projected Marlins lineup that owns a 25.9% strikeout rate and .286 wOBA against lefties over the past 12 months. The Braves are also the second-largest favorite on the slate (-188 moneyline), and the Marlins are implied for just 3.8 runs.
Fastballs
Felix Hernandez: The Mariners are -141 moneyline favorites against a Tigers team implied for just 3.5 runs. Hernandez is sporting a respectable 6.9 K Prediction, and he costs just $7,100 on DraftKings. Pitchers with comparable salaries, Vegas data, and K Predictions have historically averaged a +1.94 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
Michael Wacha: The Cardinals are slight favorites (-117 moneyline), and Wacha costs just $7,200 on DraftKings. He boasts a 7.1 K Prediction against a Phillies team implied for a meager 3.7 runs. While the Phillies have power, they also strike out a lot as evidenced by their 28.1% strikeout rate against righties over the past 12 months.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top five-man DraftKings stack in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the A’s, who are implied for a solid 4.9 runs. Their Team Value Rating of 81 is the fourth-best mark on the slate:
The A’s will take on Blue Jays right-hander Marco Estrada, who has some awful recent batted-ball data with a 248-foot average distance and 92-mph exit velocity. Further, over the past 12 months, Estrada has allowed a .349 wOBA and robust .226 ISO to hitters. Meanwhile, this A’s stack has destroyed right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months:
Matt Olson is coming off a huge game last night and in an excellent spot again with his elite .427 wOBA and .369 ISO. Further, he has some of the best recent batted-ball data on the slate with his 247-foot average distance, 95-mph exit velocity, and 54% hard-hit rate. Khris Davis is drawing a lot of hard contact of late as he owns a 94-mph exit velocity and 44% hard-hit rate. Hitters with comparable metrics and implied run totals have historically averaged a +1.06 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
One of the top four-man FanDuel stacks in the Recent Batted Ball Model belongs to the Cubs, who are implied for 5.5 runs, the second-highest mark on the slate:
The Cubs stand out as Homer Bailey has some atrocious recent batted-ball data with a 233-foot average distance and 92-mph exit velocity, and he’s also allowed a .370 wOBA and .207 ISO over the past 12 months. Kris Bryant can crush righties with his .408 wOBA and .258 ISO, and he enters this game drawing a lot of hard contact, sporting a 94-mph exit velocity and 52% hard-hit rate.
Other Batters
With Joey Gallo burning people last night at high ownership, this may be a good time to stick with him. Gallo will square off against White Sox pitcher Carson Fulmer, who owns a 2.11 HR/9 and the slate’s stone-worst recent batted-ball data with a 264-foot average distance, 96-mph exit velocity, and 52% fly-ball rate. Gallo strikes out a lot (38.8% strikeout rate over the past 12 months), but he can crush the ball. He has historically smoked righties, flaunting a .354 wOBA and .328 ISO against them over the past year. Gallo’s +18 Recent Batted Ball Luck (RBBL) suggests that he’s been unlucky lately as a fantasy producer. With a 233-foot average distance and 95-mph exit velocity, he could be due for some progression.
This is the first time I’ve written the breakdown this season when Brian Dozier has been facing a left-handed pitcher. So now I can finally gloat about his .448 wOBA and .301 ISO against them over the past 12 months. Overall, it’s a good spot for the Twins, who are implied for 4.9 runs and own a slate-best Team Value Rating of 90 on FanDuel.
The Yankees take on Royals pitcher Jake Junis, who has allowed an average distance of 231 feet and 92-mph exit velocity over his past two starts as well as a .326 wOBA and .196 ISO. Didi Gregorius obliterates righties, owning a .379 wOBA and .279 ISO against them over the past 12 months: He also leads all shortstops with seven Pro Trends.
Aaron Judge enters this game in solid form with his 234-foot recent average distance, 94-mph exit velocity, and 50% hard-hit rate. Further, he also smashes righties as evidenced by his .436 wOBA and .338 ISO over the past 12 months. Historically, hitters with comparable metrics and implied run totals (5.5) have averaged a hearty +3.53 FanDuel Plus/Minus.
Wilmer Flores could be an intriguing GPP dart throw, as he leads all hitters with a +89 RBBL. He’ll be highly contrarian against Zach Godley since the Mets are implied for just 3.9 runs. However, Godley has regressed over his past two starts, allowing a .393 wOBA and .306 ISO. Meanwhile, Flores boasts a .345 wOBA and .225 ISO against righties, and his 259-foot recent average distance is among the best marks on the slate. Historically, hitters with comparable RBBLs and batted-ball metrics have averaged a +2.52 FanDuel Plus/Minus.
Good luck on today’s slate, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Joey Gallo
Photo credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
