The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Both DraftKings and FanDuel are offering $100,000 first-place prizes in their largest one-game guaranteed prize pools for Monday’s Game 1 of the “Western Conference” Finals between the Houston Rockets and Golden State Warriors at 9 p.m. ET.
If you’re not familiar, DraftKings’ one-game contests feature six-man rosters, a $50,000 cap, and no scoring multipliers, while FanDuel’s feature five-man rosters with multipliers for whichever player you designate as the MVP (2x), Star (1.5x), and Pro (1.2x). FanDuel’s multipliers introduce more lineup combinations and should help to limit some of the all-too-common ties that occur in these contests, while DraftKings’ lack of multipliers increases the likelihood of ties and therefore provides extra incentive to go contrarian in other ways, such as by taking a player projected for extremely low ownership or by leaving salary on the table. FanDuel is also offering contests for a combined two-game slate featuring Monday’s Rockets-Warriors Game 1 and Tuesday’s Cavs-Celtics Game 2, which I touch on briefly at the end.
Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets (-1.5) | O/U: 224.5
9 p.m. ET | TNT
Rockets (113.5 implied points)
James Harden has the top ceiling projection in our NBA Models, but it’s worth noting that the gap between his and the No. 4 ceiling is fewer than three points on DraftKings and fewer than five points on FanDuel. In two games against Golden State this season, Harden averaged 25.5 points, 9.0 assists, and 4.0 rebounds per game; the scoring average is nearly five points lower than Harden’s overall defense and it was mostly thanks to Klay Thompson, who in 77 possessions held Harden to 17.1% fewer field-goal attempts than his season average, per NBA Stats.
One of the players whose ceiling nearly equals that of Harden is Chris Paul, who also owns the best Opponent Plus/Minus on the slate on both sites. Interestingly enough, Paul actually struggled to score this season when matched up against Stephen Curry, who is widely regarded as the Warriors’ worst starting defender, managing only six points on 70 possessions while being held well below is season averages in both field-goal percentage and attempt rate. Nevertheless, Paul’s last two games against Houston were excellent, with him piling up at least 28 points, seven rebounds, and seven assists in each. Paul is an excellent value on FanDuel, where he’s $500 cheaper than Clint Capela (on DraftKings he’s $2,000 more expensive). For lineup construction purposes, note that Paul has had a relatively strong negative correlation with Harden this season.
After getting the best of Karl-Anthony Towns in Round 1 and Rudy Gobert in Round 2, Draymond Green and the Warriors will present Capela’s toughest test yet; he’ll have to deal with Green’s multi-dimensional game and survive switches onto Curry. Capela averaged 1.11 DraftKings points per minute against the Warriors during the regular season, which represents a drop from his averages over the past month (1.23) and year (1.24). Capela is an excellent value on DraftKings, where he’s priced as the sixth-highest player (he’s fourth-highest on FanDuel).
Eric Gordon was deemed an X-factor in this series by Matt Moore over at The Action Network, and Gordon’s affordable salary and boom-or-bust nature will make him a recurring X-factor in these one-game contests as well. Gordon has the eighth-highest ceiling projection on the slate but the 10th-highest floor, and he’s scored as many as 30 (in a game without Harden) and as few as six (real) points against Golden State this season.
P.J. Tucker was excellent in Round 2 against Utah, averaging 11.8 points and 6.8 rebounds in 32.7 minutes per game, and he carries the highest projected ceiling on the Rockets after Harden, Paul, Capela, and Gordon. Tucker’s playing time is likely to stay in last round’s 30-plus minute range rather than the 26.8 he played in Round 1 because the Rockets will need all the wing defense they can get in this series.
The rest of Houston’s wings — Trevor Ariza, Luc Mbah a Moute, and Gerald Green — all have low floors and uninspiring ceilings, and would likely need outlying 3-point performances to be factors on this slate. Ariza has the most upside based on playing time; he’s projected to play more than 30 minutes while Mbah a Moute is around 20 and Green is under 10.
Nene has been seeing 4-14 minutes a game in these playoffs, and both him and Ryan Anderson should be considered nothing more than DraftKings-only contrarian dart throws.
Warriors (111 implied points)
Kevin Durant‘s ceiling projection is second only to Harden’s. Durant played against Houston only twice this season, hitting at least 20 points, five rebounds, and five assists in each game but coming up just short of value each time on both sites. Like his teammates, Durant will likely see a slew of different defenders because Houston loves to switch everything on defense, but it’s worth noting he struggled against Houston’s better wings this season, scoring 14 points or more per 100 possessions below his season average against Tucker, Ariza, and Mbah a Moute, but exceeding his season average against Harden and Gordon, per NBA Stats.
After playing somewhat limited minutes in his first three games back from a knee injury, Stephen Curry played 37 in his last game, which is why his ceiling projection is on par with Harden’s and Durant’s. Curry and Durant average nearly the same amount of fantasy points per minute, making Curry the slightly better point-for-dollar value among the two. Dutant’s been the better of the two this season on the road, though, averaging a positive Plus/Minus on both sites while Curry’s was in the negatives (per our NBA Trends tool).
Draymond Green smashed value in all three regular season games against Houston, averaging +13.77 and +9.19 Plus/Minuses on DraftKings and FanDuel, respectively. It wasn’t Durant or Curry, but Green who led the Warriors in fantasy points per game against Houston during the regular season, making him an excellent candidate for FanDuel’s MVP slot, where he’ll likely be one of the lower-owned players in that slot due to the other big-name options on the slate. Over the past month, Green’s FanDuel points per minute (1.24) is nearly on par with that of Durant (1.29) and Curry (1.28).
Meanwhile, Klay Thompson‘s FanDuel points per minute over the past month (0.79) and in three meetings this season versus Houston (0.81) are below is overall average over the past year (0.87).
Andre Iguodala is the only other Warrior projected for at least 30 minutes. He’s a boom-or-bust option who’s scored 30-plus FanDuel points in three of his 10 playoff games this season, but 21.3 or below in the other seven.
Kevon Looney has played at least 20 minutes in nine of his team’s 10 playoff games and should be around that mark again. He’s averaged 1.02 FanDuel points per minute across 35:47 of playing time in three meetings against Houston this season, which compares favorably to his 0.75 overall mark over the past month.
Shaun Livingston is projected for around 15 minutes Monday, but he’s scoreless across 28 minutes in his last two games against Houston.
Jordan Bell hasn’t gotten off the bench for more than 8:15 in these playoffs, but priced at just $1,400 on DraftKings, he’s the ultimate contrarian option on the off chance the athleticism he brings as a small-ball 5 earns him more time in this particular matchup.
Fast Break: FanDuel Combined Two-Game Slate
- LeBron James scored 35.9 FanDuel points in Game 1 against Boston, by far his lowest output of the playoffs. According to the Trends tool, James is averaging a +2.50 Plus/Minus at home but a -0.49 Plus/Minus on the road this season.
- Marcus Morris entered the starting lineup in Game 1 and played 34 minutes, scoring 21 points and grabbing 10 boards, but he’s still priced like a reserve at $5,500.
- Jaylen Brown played only 28 minutes in Game 1, but there’s been no indication that he’s still on a minutes restriction. He has major upside at only $6,700.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA News Feed.
Pictured above: Draymond Green (23) and Luc Mbah a Moute (12).
Photo credit: Troy Taormina – USA TODAY Sports
