The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features an eight-game slate at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
There are four pitchers on today’s slate with salaries of at least $9,000 on FanDuel:
Patrick Corbin is the priciest option on both FanDuel and DraftKings, but his performance has tailed off recently after a strong start to the season. He dominated through his first six outings, posting an average Plus/Minus of +22.13, but that number has dropped to just +0.82 over his past three starts. The Statcast data from his past two starts is also unimpressive. He’s posted an average distance of 225 feet over that time frame, which represents a differential of +25 feet when compared to his 12-month average. His Recent Batted Ball Luck of -87 is the worst mark among all of today’s pitchers.
His matchup vs. the Brewers doesn’t look like a great bounceback spot. His opponent implied team total of 3.7 runs ranks fourth on the slate, while his moneyline odds of -145 rank third. While those numbers aren’t awful, they are hard to swallow given his current price tag.
Carlos Carrasco seems like the top option among the high-priced pitchers. He leads all pitchers in both moneyline odds (-221) and opponent implied team total (3.4 runs), and his K Prediction of 7.5 ranks second. Historically, pitchers with comparable marks in all three categories have been nice values on FanDuel (per the Trends tool):
Carrasco has also averaged 115 pitches over his past two starts, which is the top mark on the slate by a considerable margin. He’s especially appealing on FanDuel, where his $9,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%.
Lance McCullers has the best recent Statcast data of the group, posting an average distance of 192 feet, exit velocity of 88 miles per hour, and hard-hit rate of 25% over his past two starts. All of those numbers represent decreases when compared to his 12-month averages. Unfortunately, he has a brutal matchup today against the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, who have posted the third best wOBA against right-handed pitchers to start the 2018 season. That said, facing the Angels in LA does reward McCullers with a Park Factor of 83, which is tied for the second-best mark on today’s slate.
Rounding out the top group is Rick Porcello. He benefits from pitching for the Red Sox, who have moneyline odds of -151, but that’s really all he has going for him today. His opponent implied team total of 4.1 runs and K Prediction of 5.6 are both mediocre, and pitchers with comparable marks in both categories and salaries ($10,500) have historically been poor values on DraftKings:
Values
Given the uncertainty with the top options, it could be a good day to pay down at pitcher. One player who stands out is Rockies left-hander Tyler Anderson, who gets one of the biggest park upgrades possible by facing the Padres on the road in San Diego. The Padres are also an excellent matchup for Anderson, as their projected lineup has a .304 wOBA and 28.8% strikeout rate against lefties over the past 12 months. Their implied team total of 3.6 runs is the third-lowest mark on the slate, and Anderson’s K Prediction of 8.1 ranks first. He’s priced fairly at $7,500 on DraftKings, and pitchers with comparable salaries, K Predictions, and opponent implied team totals have historically been strong values.
Opposing Anderson is Joey Lucchesi, who has gotten off to an impressive start in his rookie season. He’s posted a 2.98 ERA and 9.78 K/9 through his first 42.1 innings, which is especially impressive considering that he didn’t pitch even a single inning at the AAA level. He’s a slight -107 favorite against the Rockies, and his opponent implied team total of 3.5 runs trails only Carrasco’s on today’s slate.
Lucchesi’s recent Statcast data particularly stands out. He’s posted an average distance of 191 feet over his past two starts, which represents a differential of -14 feet when compared to his 12-month average. He has decent strikeout upside as well, with his K Prediction of 6.6 ranking fourth on today’s slate. He’s one of the best pure values today on DraftKings, where his $8,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 51%.
Fastballs
Andrew Heaney: He has a brutal matchup vs. the Houston Astros but could provide solid upside for GPPs. He’s posted a K/9 of 10.66 over the past 12 months, and his average distance of 187 feet over his past two starts represents a differential of -35 feet when compared to his 12-month average. Pitchers with comparable strikeout ability and recent distance differentials have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.20 on DraftKings.
Chris Stratton: Nothing jumps off the page with Stratton, but his Vegas data is solid enough with a 3.8-run opponent implied total and -130 moneyline odds. He also benefits from pitching at home in San Francisco, where he has a slate-high Park Factor of 93. He could be intriguing on DraftKings at just $5,700 for those paying down at the position.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. Today’s top rated five-man DraftKings stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks:
The Diamondbacks are implied for a modest 4.4 runs, but they do benefit from a nice matchup vs. Brewers right-hander Junior Guerra. He’s allowed a HR/9 of 1.87 over the past 12 months, and his average distance of 241 feet over his past two starts is one of the worst marks on the slate.
The Diamondbacks are also in excellent recent form: All of the stacked batters but Paul Goldschmidt own a distance differential of at least +10 feet over the past 15 days:
Their implied team total should keep their ownership modest, even if they are stacked 1-5.
The top four-man FanDuel stack also belongs to the Diamondbacks, so let’s focus on the Minnesota Twins instead:
Their implied team total of 4.9 runs is the third-highest mark on today’s slate, so they could have higher ownership than the Diamondbacks. That said, stacking them in the above 1-3-5-7 manner should minimize ownership. They’re facing Mariners left-hander Wade LeBlanc, and the Twins have posted the fifth-highest wOBA against left-handed pitchers to start the 2018 season. LeBlanc has allowed a HR/9 of 1.72 over the past 12 months, and his K Prediction of 3.8 suggests that the Twins could put a lot of balls in play against him. They are another team in good recent form: Max Kepler, Eddie Rosario, and Robbie Grossman all own distance differentials of at least +12 feet over the past 15 days.
Other Batters
Mikie Mahtook is projected to occupy the leadoff spot for the Tigers, and his recent Statcast data suggests he’s been one of the unluckiest hitters in baseball over the past 15 days. He’s posted an average distance of 242 feet, resulting in a Recent Batted Ball Luck score of +85. He has one of the toughest matchups of the day against Carrasco, but he could be worth considering as a contrarian tournament option.
Andrew McCutchen absolutely smoked the baseball over his past 12 games, resulting in an average distance of 253 feet. That represents an increase of +37 feet when compared to his 12-month average. He has a nice matchup today vs. Reds right-hander Sal Romano, who has posted an average WHIP of 1.41 over the past 12 months.
JD Martinez is taking on A’s left-hander Sean Manaea, and Martinez has destroyed lefties to the tune of a .516 wOBA and .417 ISO over the past 12 months. Boston’s implied team total of 5.0 runs is the second-highest mark on today’s slate, which should make him a popular target.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Joey Lucchesi
Photo Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports
