The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday features a 10-game main slate on FanDuel (no Coors Field) and an 11-game main slate on DraftKings at 1:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
On FanDuel, there are four pitchers that cost $10,000 or more:
Corey Kluber checks in with the highest salary on the slate for his matchup against the Royals. Kluber has some of the most favorable Vegas data on the day, as the Indians are -257 moneyline favorites, and the Royals are implied for just 3.0 runs. Further, Kluber boasts a solid 8.2 K Prediction along with some of the best recent batted-ball data with a 187-foot average distance and 88-mph exit velocity. Historically, pitchers with comparable K Predictions, Vegas data, and salaries have dominated (per our Trends tool):
Luis Severino has been dominant in almost every start this season:
The Yankees check in with -298 moneyline odds against an A’s team that is implied for just 3.1 runs. Severino has a respectable 7.5 K Prediction against a projected A’s lineup that has a strikeout rate of 24.4% against righties over the past 12 months. The Yankees ace also owns some of the best recent batted-ball data on the slate with a 193-foot average distance, 88-mph exit velocity, and 22% hard-hit rate. Pitchers with comparable K Predictions, Vegas data, and recent batted-ball data have historically averaged a solid +7.35 FanDuel Plus/Minus with 87% Consistency. However, there is currently a chance of rain for this game so be sure to monitor the status of the weather up until lock.
Jacob deGrom is a slight road underdog (+108 moneyline odds) to the Phillies against a home-dominant Aaron Nola. For that reason (and also his recent injury), deGrom could have reduced ownership in tournaments. Outside of the moneyline odds, the stars align for deGrom in this matchup. The projected Phillies lineup boasts a strikeout rate of 28.2% against righties over the past 12 months, and deGrom has a slate-best 9.6 K Prediction. Additionally, the Phillies are implied for just 3.7 runs. Pitchers on the road with comparable salaries, K Predictions, and Vegas data have historically done just as well as all other pitchers, but with nearly half the ownership:
Sunday offers a great pitching slate, as we also have James Paxton. The Mariners are sizeable -188 moneyline favorites, and the Tigers are implied for just 3.6 runs. The downside to Paxton is that he owns a K Prediction of 7.0 against a projected Tigers lineup that has a low 22.5% strikeout rate against lefties over the past 12 months. Further, the Tigers rank fifth in weighted runs created plus (wRC+) this season against lefties (FanGraphs). That said, it’s difficult to argue against a fantastic pitcher coming off of a no-hitter, especially one who owns an 11.18 SO/9 over the past year. He’ll also get a favorable home-plate umpire in Paul Nauert, who has historically allowed an average +2.10 FanDuel Plus/Minus to opposing pitchers.
Values
Dallas Keuchel sports an excellent 74% Bargain Rating on DraftKings against the Rangers. Keuchel doesn’t strike out a ton of batters, but he has a favorable matchup, as the projected Rangers lineup has a 26.8% strikeout rate against lefties over the past 12 months. Also, over his past two starts Keuchel has allowed an average distance of just 176 feet and an exit velocity of 88 mph. His +24 Recent Batted Ball Luck (RBBL) suggests that he’s been unlucky as a fantasy producer over that time. Further, the Astros have quite favorable Vegas data as massive -304 moneyline favorites, and the Rangers are implied for just 3.2 runs. Pitchers with comparable salaries, recent batted-ball data, and Vegas data have historically been solid investments on DraftKings:
Sean Newcomb has a high 89% Bargain Rating on FanDuel. He’s been solid this season, averaging a +11.59 FanDuel Plus/Minus with an 86% Consistency Rating. Newcomb draws a favorable matchup against a pedestrian Marlins team whose projected lineup has a 25.7% strikeout rate and low .285 weighted on-base average (wOBA) against lefties over the past 12 months. Additionally, he’s pitching in a very friendly venue, as Marlin Park has a Park Factor of 86. Overall, Newcomb is an excellent option if you’re looking to pay down, as he owns a solid 6.5 K Prediction, and the Braves are -132 moneyline favorites.
Fastballs
Aaron Nola boasts a solid 7.6 K Prediction against a Mets team implied for just 3.4 runs. The Phillies are slight favorites (-117 moneyline), but Nola has extreme home/road splits and is fantastic at home:
There is no implied run total available for the Cubs game as of writing, but Kyle Hendricks is a -257 moneyline favorite against a projected White Sox lineup that owns a 27.8% strikeout rate and .286 wOBA against righties over the past 12 months. The primary concern for Hendricks is his recent batted-ball data: He has a 221-foot average distance and 93-mph exit velocity over his last two starts.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into daily fantasy lineups. The top five-man DraftKings stack in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Astros, who are implied for 5.7 runs and boast the second-highest Team Value Rating (83) on DraftKings:
The Astros will take on Rangers lefty Matt Moore, who owns some of the worst recent batted-ball data on the slate with a 238-foot average distance, 97-mph exit velocity, and 52% hard-hit rate. Historically, top-half hitters in games with similar implied run totals facing pitchers with comparable recent batted-ball data have averaged a +2.46 DraftKings Plus/Minus. Further, the whole 1-5 stack is right-handed, which puts most of them on the positive side of their wOBA and isolated power (ISO) splits:
One of the top four-man FanDuel stacks in the Recent Batted Ball Model belongs to the Red Sox, who are implied for 5.1 runs:
The Red Sox take on Blue Jays righty Joe Biagini, who owns atrocious recent batted-ball data, allowing a 235-foot average distance, 95-mph exit velocity, and 52% hard-hit rate. Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez will each be on the negative side of their splits, but they still hit righties well, as Betts owns a .334 wOBA and .209 ISO and Martinez a .415 wOBA and .345 ISO against righties over the over the past year. Further, Betts has excellent recent batted-ball data with a 247-foot average distance, 93-mph exit velocity, and 46% hard-hit rate. Martinez is in a similar camp with a 229-foot average distance, 94-mph exit velocity, and 44% hard-hit rate.
Other Batters
Max Moroff owns a stellar .335 wOBA and .200 ISO against lefties over the past 12 months, and he costs just $2,300 on FanDuel. Historically, hitters with comparable data projected to bat from the leadoff spot in games with similar implied run totals (4.7) have averaged a +1.36 FanDuel Plus/Minus.
Jose Ramirez has been crushing with a +8.11 FanDuel Plus/Minus and 60% Consistency over his past 10 games. Further, he is sporting an excellent .423 wOBA and .292 ISO against lefties over the past 12 months. The Indians are implied for 5.1 runs, and Ramirez is drawing a ton of hard contact of late with a 93-mph exit velocity and 40% hard-hit rate.
Dee Gordon is averaging 0.381 stolen bases per game: Historically, base stealers on DraftKings have been quite valuable when leading off with comparable implied run totals (5.1), sporting a +1.61 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
If you’re playing on DraftKings, it’s difficult not to keep plugging in Trevor Story. The Rockies are implied for 6.3 runs, and he boasts some absurd recent batted-ball data with a 258-foot average distance, 95-mph exit velocity, and 53% hard-hit rate.
Catcher always seems to be unimpressive, but Gary Sanchez has historically crushed lefties: He has a .386 wOBA and .299 ISO against them over the past 12 months. He’s also obliterating the baseball right now, posting a +16-foot distance differential and a +3-mph velocity differential.
If you want to pay down at catcher, Francisco Cervelli is an option. He has an incredible 256-foot average distance, 94-mph exit velocity, and 52% hard-hit rate. His +41 RBBL also suggests that he’s been unlucky of late. Historically, hitters with comparable implied run totals (4.7), RBBLs, and batted-ball data have averaged a +2.48 FanDuel Plus/Minus.
Good luck on today’s slate, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Dallas Keuchel
Photo Credit: Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports
