The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday offers a 14-game main slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel that begins at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Friday is an excellent slate with three elite pitchers priced $11,000 or more on FanDuel:
Max Scherzer checks in with the highest salary on the slate — as it should be, seeing as how Scherzer owns a 40% strikeout rate this season (FanGraphs) and is sporting a slate-best K Prediction of 11.0 against a projected Diamondbacks lineup that carries a 32% strikeout rate against righties over the past 12 months. Scherzer is on another level. Scherzer is averaging a +16.63 FanDuel Plus/Minus with 88% Consistency this season. Further, the Nationals are -193 moneyline favorites, and the Diamondbacks are implied for just 3.1 runs. Historically, pitchers with comparable Vegas data and K Predictions have averaged a +6.39 FanDuel Plus/Minus (per our MLB Trends tool).
Justin Verlander draws a matchup with the strikeout-happy Rangers, whose projected lineup owns a 27.8% strikeout rate against righties over the past 12 months. Consequently, Verlander is sporting a healthy K Prediction of 8.3. The primary concern with Verlander is he’s allowing an average batted-ball distance of 240 feet over the last 15 days. However, he’s not allowing hard contact, as evidenced by his hard-hit rate of 19% over that span, so it may not be as much of a concern as it would be for your average pitcher. Ultimately, it’s an amazing spot for Verlander: The Rangers are implied for 3.1 runs and the Astros are the largest favorite on the slate (-250 moneyline odds). Per the Trends tool, pitchers with comparable salaries, K Predictions, and moneyline odds have historically been safe investments, posting a +7.04 Plus/Minus and 65.8% Consistency in 79 instances on FanDuel since 2012.
Chris Sale has the toughest matchup among top-tier pitchers, and he’ll also be pitching in the worst ballpark among the three, as Toronto has a Park Factor of 39. That said, it’s still Chris Sale. He owns a slate-best 12.78 K/9 over the past 12 months and an 8.7 K Prediction for Friday. The Red Sox are sizable moneyline favorites (-175), and the Jays are implied for a paltry 3.7 runs. What’s more, Sale has some of the best recent batted-ball data on the slate, with a 192-foot average distance, 86-mph exit velocity, and 24% hard-hit rate over the last 15 days. Per the Trends tool, pitchers with comparable salaries, K Predictions and batted ball data have historically been dominant, posting a +9.81 average Plus/Minus and 71.7% Consistency in 92 instances on FanDuel since 2012.
Values
Trevor Bauer is a much better value on FanDuel than DraftKings and has a 95% Bargain Rating on the former. Bauer has been solid overall this season, sporting an 86% Consistency Rating. He draws a matchup against a projected Royals lineup that doesn’t strike out often (22% strikeout rate over the past 12 months against righties), but our MLB Models still have him projected with a respectable K Prediction of 6.5. The Royals are implied for just 3.3 runs, and the Indians are -238 moneyline favorites, though Bauer does have some worrisome recent batted-ball data, allowing a lot of hard contact with a 94-mph exit velocity and 52% hard-hit rate over the last 15 days. Pitchers with comparable moneyline odds, K Predictions, and batted-ball data have averaged just a +0.72 FanDuel Plus/Minus since 2012.
If you’re looking for a pure punt play on FanDuel, Luke Weaver costs just $5,900 against the Padres. Weaver has been atrocious of late, sporting a -9.06 average FanDuel Plus/Minus with 25% Consistency. That said, he’s taking on a Padres lineup that has posted a 27.8% strikeout rate and a .295 weighted on-base average (wOBA) against righties over the past 12 months. Further, Weaver boasts a 7.3 K Prediction, and his +68 Recent Batted Ball Score (RBBL) suggests that he’s been incredibly unlucky thus far. Historically, pitchers with comparable RBBL Scores and K Predictions in games with comparable opponent implied run totals (3.7) have been excellent tournament plays, averaging a +7.27 Plus/Minus and 58.3% Consistency on FanDuel since 2012. Rostering Weaver in tournaments will give you a drastically different roster than the field, especially when considering that the top-priced pitchers are all around $5,000 more expensive.
Fastballs
Kenta Maeda owns a 6.8 K Prediction, and the Dodgers are -205 moneyline favorites against the Reds, who are implied for 3.3 runs. Pitchers with comparable K Predictions and Vegas data have historically averaged a +4.87 FanDuel Plus/Minus. The primary concern with Maeda is that he won’t pitch deep into the game, especially if he’s having an inefficient outing.
Tyler Skaggs has a tough matchup against the Twins, and his K Prediction is only a pedestrian 5.5. However, the Angels are -164 moneyline favorites, and the Twins are implied for just 3.3 runs; pitchers with comparable K Predictions and Vegas data have historically averaged a +2.28 Plus/Minus on FanDuel.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into daily fantasy sports rosters. The top five-man DraftKings stack in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Dodgers, who are implied for 4.9 runs and sport a Team Value Rating of 78 (per our Vegas Dashboard):
The Dodgers will take on the Reds’ new intern, Matt Harvey. Cody Bellinger has already been covered in Friday’s Three Key Players piece, so I’ll highlight other hitters. Yasmani Grandal has hit righties well over the past 12 months and owns a .336 wOBA and .240 isolated power (ISO) against them over that span. Grandal will be on the positive side of his wOBA and ISO differentials Friday, as his .106 ISO differential is among the highest of all catchers on the slate. Joc Pederson will also be on the positive side of his splits, boasting a .249 wOBA and .209 ISO against righties over the past 12 months. Meanwhile, Harvey has allowed an atrocious 1.82 WHIP and 2.13 HR/9 over that span, so the Dodgers might be able to pile on the runs.
The top four-man FanDuel stack in Recent Batted Ball Player Model belongs to the Indians, who are implied for 5.3 runs:
- 1 – Francisco Lindor (S) (9-12%)
- 4 – Edwin Encarnacion (R) (5-8%)
- 5 – Yonder Alonso (L) (5-8%)
- 6 – Jason Kipnis (L) (5-8%)
This is an interesting stack, as it will give you a unique lineup relative to other DFS players. With the utility spot on FanDuel, it also allows you to play both Encarnacion and Alonso, who both have exceptional power against righties:
(via FantasyLabs MLB Player Models)
Both hitters are sporting excellent recent batted-ball data, with average distances over 223 feet, exit velocities of 93 mph, and hard-hit rates between 42-44% over the last 15 days. Hitters with comparable batted ball data featured in games with similar run totals have historically averaged a +1.95 FanDuel Plus/Minus. Lindor owns some of the best recent batted-ball data among all batters on Friday: average distance of 238 feet, exit velocity of 95 mph, and hard-hit rate of 44%.
Other Batters
If you’re in need of a low-owned (2-4% ownership projection) value play, Jose Martinez has an 81% Bargain Rating on DraftKings. He’ll take on lefty Eric Lauer, who over the last 15 days has allowed a 221-foot average batted-ball distance, 93-mph exit velocity, and a 41% hard-hit rate. Meanwhile, Martinez has raked to the tune of a 94-mph exit velocity, and he’s also hit lefties extremely well over the past 12 months, posting elite .489 wOBA and .377 ISO marks.
Jose Altuve hasn’t been producing many fantasy points of late (-2.04 FanDuel Plus/Minus over the past month), but what he has been producing is plenty of hard contact, with a 224-foot average distance, 94-mph exit velocity, and a 50% hard-hit rate over that span. This gives Altuve a distance differential of +17 feet, an exit velocity differential of +4 mph, and hard-hit rate differential of +21% over that span, and per the Trends tool, hitters with comparable differentials in games with similar implied run totals (5.0) have historically averaged a +1.71 FanDuel Plus/Minus.
Jose Ramirez has been swinging a hot bat of late, averaging a +8.60 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 70% Consistency Rating over the last 15 days. The switch-hitter has also dominated righties with a .403 wOBA and .288 ISO over the past 12 months. Meanwhile, Jason Hammel has some of the worst recent batted-ball data on the slate, with a 237-foot average distance, 96-mph exit velocity, and 59% hard-hit rate over the past 15 days.
Matt Kemp is another Dodger who is in play against Harvey. Kemp has been obliterating the ball over the past 15 days (234-foot average distance, 95-mph exit velocity, and 55% hard-hit rate), but he doesn’t have the fantasy points to show for it. However, his RBBL Score of +25 suggests he’s been unlucky; hitters with comparable batted-ball metrics and RBBL Scores in games with comparable run totals have historically averaged an excellent +4.02 FanDuel Plus/Minus.
The Yankees are implied for 5.7 runs against Kendall Gravemen, and depending on your roster construction, you may want to consider the top of their order, as it has hit righties exceptionally well over the past 12 months. However, they won’t come cheap:
Good luck on today’s slate, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Luke Weaver
Photo Credit: Jeff Curry – USA TODAY Sports
