Baseball is back! Check back here throughout the day for updated blurbs as teams confirm their lineup. We’ll keep you updated on some of the day’s highest-impact trends by utilizing our Models and Vegas dashboard. Projected and confirmed lineups for every game can be found on our MLB Daily Lineups page.
Mets (+120) at Reds (-135) — 7:10 PM EST
Mets out: Todd Frazier (sore hamstring)
Mets in: Adrian Gonzalez
The Mets will roll with Michael Conforto, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Yoenis Cespedes at the top of the order for their matchup against the Reds. They’re currently implied to score a respectable 4.5 runs, although their combined .307 wOBA vs. right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months is the fourth-lowest mark in Tuesday’s main slate. Still, each of the Mets’ top-five batters boast positive ISO splits vs. right-handed pitchers. Righty Luis Castillo will look to continue to force batters to keep the ball on the ground, as he’s one of just five pitchers in Tuesday’s main slate that have allowed a ground-ball rate above 55 percent over the past calendar year. Exposure to Castillo should be focused on FanDuel, where his $6,200 price tag comes with a 70 percent Bargain Rating and a +5.73 FantasyLabs’ Projected Plus/Minus.
Reds out: Jesse Winker
Reds in: Scott Schebler
Jesse Winker will be replaced in the lineup by Scott Schebler, who will bat second and start in right field. The Reds are currently implied to score 5.1 runs and are especially in play on FanDuel, where their Team Value Rating of 81 is tied for the third-highest mark in Tuesday’s main slate. Overall, Jose Peraza, Joey Votto, and Eugenio Suarez form the slate’s fourth-highest rated three-man stack on FanDuel in the Bales Model. Votto will look to continue to crush the ball, as he ranks among the main slate’s top-six first basemen in average batted ball distance, exit velocity, and hard-hit rate over the past 15 days. He’s the highest-rated catcher/first basemen in the Bales Model on FanDuel, where his $4,300 price tag comes with a 76 percent Bargain Rating. The Reds are set up well against Jason Vargas, who ranks among the main slate’s bottom-five pitchers in both WHIP and home runs allowed per nine innings pitched over the past 12 months.
Royals (+147) at Orioles (-163) — 7:05 PM EST
Orioles in: Jonathan Schoop (strained right oblique), Adam Jones (right wrist)
Jonathan Schoop was activated off the disabled list and will bat cleanup while Adam Jones returns to the lineup after getting hit in the right wrist and missing Sunday’s game. Although the Orioles are not one of the five teams presently implied to score at least 5.0 runs, they rank second in Team Value Rating on FanDuel (86) and DraftKings (81). The top-four hitters in the lineup all have a Bargain Rating of at least 63% on FanDuel, and Schoop has proven to be a reliable option against left-handers. He leads the Orioles with a 0.439 wOBA and 0.320 ISO against southpaws over the past year, and Royals left-hander Danny Duffy has allowed the second-highest recent hard-hit rate (46%) among pitchers with at least two starts over the last 15 days. The Orioles project as a contrarian stack in tournaments, and Schoop will be a viable value play at $2600 on FanDuel.
Marlins (+144) at Cubs (-160) — 8:05 PM EST
Cubs out: Javier Baez (tight right groin)
Cubs in: Tommy La Stella
Javier Baez suffered a groin injury during Monday’s win, and he’s replaced in the lineup by Tommy La Stella, who will bat sixth. The Cubs are one of five teams presently implied to score at least 5.0 runs in the main slate, and they claim the fifth-highest Team Value Rating on FanDuel. The wind may continue to play an integral role when evaluating Cubs hitters at Wrigley Field, and the current projections have the wind blowing toward third base. Marlins right-hander Jose Urena has strung together two solid outings at home, but he’s still allowed a 45% hard-hit rate over that span. Ben Zobrist is among the highest-rated hitters on FanDuel, where he costs only $2600. Similarly-priced leadoff hitters have averaged a +2.40 FanDuel Plus/Minus from teams with a comparable implied run total. Zobrist has positive hitting differentials in all three categories – distance, exit velocity, hard-hit-rate – and he’s in the conversation as a cheap outfield option.
Tigers (+148) at Rangers (-164) — 8:05 PM EST
Tigers out: Leonys Martin (swollen left knee)
TIgers in: Niko Goodrum
Leonys Martin is dealing with a swollen left knee and will sit against the Rangers and left-hander Mike Minor on Tuesday, and he’ll be replaced in the outfield by Niko Goodrum. JaCoby Jones will move up to the leadoff spot, and the rest of the lineup remains relatively intact. The Tigers are presently implied to score a mediocre 4.2 runs on the road, but the team actually ranks sixth in the league with a .330 wOBA against lefties this season. They also claim the second-lowest strikeout rate against lefties, significantly reducing Minor’s appeal as a contrarian play. The Tigers have averaged a league-high +1.99 DraftKings Plus/Minus against lefties this year, and Nick Castellanos has averaged 14.67 DraftKings points per game in those six contests while leading the Tigers with a 0.453 wOBA and 0.318 ISO over the past year — good for top-seven marks at his position.
Angels (+105) at Rockies (-114) — 8:40 PM EST
Rockies in: DJ LeMahieu
DJ LeMahieu was activated from the disabled list and will bat ___ against the Angels and left-hander Andrew Heaney on Tuesday.
Despite being implied to score a slate-high 5.4 runs, the Rockies’ implied total has decreased 0.4 runs since the line opened. However, under similar conditions, Rockies hitters have still averaged a +1.64 DraftKings Plus/Minus with a 50% Consistency Rating at Coors Field. The Rockies also have the fourth-highest Team Value Rating (78) on DraftKings, where all of their hitters possess at least six Pro Trends. Nolan Arenado leads all every-day hitters with a 0.527 wOBA, and he’s averaged 12.48 DraftKings points per game against lefties at home over the past five seasons with a 57.8% Consistency Rating. He’s among the highest-rated hitters in the Bales Model, and he’ll likely among the highest-owned hitters on the slate.
Pictured: Anthony Rizzo
Photo via Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports
