The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features a 14-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Today’s slate features a deep group of stud pitchers, five of whom possess salaries of at least $9,000 on FanDuel:
Corey Kluber is the priciest option on both FanDuel and DraftKings, and he’s been outstanding to start the 2018 season:
He has a tough matchup with the Milwaukee Brewers, whose projected lineup boasts a .346 wOBA and 22.1% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months. His marks in K Prediction (8.5), moneyline odds (-180), and opponent implied run total (3.4) all rank in the top three on the slate, but they are a bit worse than expected for a pitcher of Kluber’s caliber. Unfortunately, Kluber’s recent Statcast data isn’t great either. He’s allowed an average distance of 210 feet over his past two starts, which represents an increase of +13 feet when compared to his 12-month average. On a slate with tons of pitchers and Coors Field, he may not be worth his enormous price tag.
Luis Severino could be an intriguing pivot on DraftKings, where his 48% Bargain Rating is tops among the stud pitchers. He’s a larger favorite than Kluber at -199, and his opponent implied team total of 3.3 runs is lower. He doesn’t have as much strikeout upside against the Boston Red Sox, whose projected lineup has posted a strikeout rate of just 21.5% against righties over the past 12 months, but he does have better Statcast data over his past two starts. He’s posted a distance differential of -4 feet, and pitchers with comparable moneyline odds and distance differentials have been nice values on DraftKings (per the Trends tool):
The top Vegas data of the day actually belongs to Aaron Nola, who has an opponent implied team total of 3.1 runs and moneyline odds of -201. He has one of the best matchups of the slate against the San Francisco Giants and is rating as one of the top pitchers in our MLB Models. He’s covered in depth in today’s Three Key MLB Players.
There’s a clear drop off after the top three options at the position. Lance McCullers is second is salary on DraftKings but tied for sixth in opponent implied run total (3.7) and K Prediction (7.1) and ninth in moneyline odds (-138). He’s taking on the Oakland A’s, whose projected lineup has posted a .341 wOBA against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months, and his recent distance of 209 feet results in a differential of +18 feet when compared to his 12-month average.
James Paxton is coming off an absolute gem in his last outing, when he allowed zero earned runs and recorded 16 strikeouts over seven innings. That marked his second straight start with double-digit Ks, but the projected Blue Jays lineup has struck out in just 22.6% of at-bats against right-handers over the past 12 months. If Paxton can’t pile up the Ks in this outing, he could be in trouble given his recent Statcast data. He’s allowed an average batted-ball distance of 249 feet over his past two starts, which represents an increase of +39 feet when compared to his 12-month average.
Values
Rich Hill looks like an excellent option for those paying down at pitcher today on DraftKings. He’s taking on the Arizona Diamondbacks, and their projected lineup has struggled to a .294 wOBA and 29.6% strikeout rate against left-handers over the past 12 months. He leads all pitchers on today’s slate with a K Prediction of 8.8, while his opponent implied team total of 3.4 runs ranks third. Historically, pitchers with a comparable K Prediction, implied team total, and salary ($7,300) have been excellent values on DraftKings:
The only real concern with Hill is that this will be his first start in more than three weeks, so the Dodgers could exercise caution with him. Given that he rarely pitches deep into games to begin with, that could be a problem.
Ivan Nova got rocked in his last start, allowing 11 hits and five earned runs over just 4.2 innings pitched. That said, those results belie some excellent Statcast data from his past two outings. He’s posted an average distance of just 169 feet over that time frame, which represents a differential of -39 feet when compared to his 12-month average. He’s also one of the best values of the day on DraftKings, where his $6,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 94%. Pitchers with comparable distance differentials and Bargain Ratings have historically been nice values on DraftKings:
He should also check in with lower ownership than some of the other top pitchers on the slate.
Fastballs
Zack Godley: He’s opposing Hill and the Dodgers in Arizona, and his K Prediction of 7.5 ranks third on the slate. He’s also posted a distance differential of -9 feet over his past two starts, and his $8,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 72%.
Jen-Ho Tsang: He’s one of the most intriguing options on today’s slate. He leads all pitchers with moneyline odds of -235, and he’s priced at just $4,300 on DraftKings. Only 12 pitchers in our database have owned comparable moneyline odds and salaries, and those pitchers have posted an average Plus/Minus of +3.50 and an Upside Rating of 42%. Tseng has managed to strike out 32 batters over his first 31.1 innings at the AAA level this season, but he also has a dreadful 8.04 ERA.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. Today’s top rated five-man DraftKings stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Colorado Rockies:
The Rockies return to Coors tonight to start a series with the Los Angeles Angels, and they unsurprisingly lead the slate with an implied team total of 5.4 runs. They’re facing left-hander Andrew Heaney, who has allowed a dreadful 3.27 HR/9 over the past 12 months. That could spell a lot of trouble at Coors, which has historically been the most hitter-friendly park in all of baseball.
The above stack also features three proven lefty killers in DJ LeMahieu, Nolan Arenado, and Trevor Story. Each of them has posted a wOBA of at least .373 and an ISO of at least .255 against southpaws over the past 12 months:
All three batters are in good recent form as well, with each owning a positive distance differential over the past 15 days.
On FanDuel, the top stack belongs to the Cincinnati Reds:
The Reds don’t benefit from playing at Coors, but the Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati is still an extremely hitter-friendly stadium. The Reds get to take on Mets left-hander Jason Vargas, who has been an absolute disaster to start the 2018 season. He’s allowed 15 earned runs and 20 hits through his first 8.1 innings, and his Statcast data over that time frame is equally uninspiring with a 235-foot distance, 95-mph exit velocity, and 41% hard-hit rate. The Reds’ implied team total of 5.2 runs is tied for the third-highest mark on the slate, and their batters come at a significant discount when compared to the Rockies. Each of the stacked batters also owns a positive distance differential over the past 15 days.
Other Batters
Giancarlo Stanton has been making strong contact recently, posting a distance differential of +13 feet over the past 15 days. He’s taking on Red Sox left-hander Drew Pomeranz, and Stanton has crushed lefties to the tune of a .497 wOBA and .422 ISO over the past 12 months. The Yankees’ implied team total of 4.8 runs is tied for merely sixth on today’s slate, so he could have modest ownership.
Steven Souza has gone 0-10 over his past three games, but that undersells how well he’s swinging the bat at the moment. He’s posted an average distance of 244 feet, which represents a differential of +29 feet when compared to his 12-month average. His combination of poor fantasy production and strong Statcast data results in a Recent Batted Ball Luck of +96, which is the top mark among all batters on today’s slate. He has a tough matchup vs. Hill, but that should lead to minuscule ownership.
Joey Gallo has been priced down to just $3,500 on FanDuel, giving him a Bargain Rating of 86%, and he has an excellent matchup today against Tigers right-hander Mike Fiers. He’s allowed two home runs in each of his past three starts, and Gallo has clubbed 12 homers through his first 36 games this season.
Good luck on today’s slate, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more baseball coverage!
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Pictured above: Joey Votto
Photo Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA Today Sports
